[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Aug 3 15:17:31 EDT 2017
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, August 3
(All Bases in CAD)
Exchange rate was 1.2569 up 0.0016
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
SEP17 HI 3.67 1/4 DEC17 HI 3.81 1/4
LOW 3.61 1/4 LOW 3.75
CLOSE3.63 1/2 Down 1 1/2 CLOSE 3.77 3/4 Down 1 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC17+DEC17+DEC17
CK Low 0.55 4.19 164.76 0.60 4.38 172.33
CK High 0.60 4.24 166.72 0.65 4.43 174.30
CK Avg 0.57 -0.29 4.20 165.41 0.62 -0.27 4.39 172.99
Essex Cty 0.60 4.24 166.72 0.65 4.43 174.30
Mdsx Low 0.55 4.19 164.76 0.60 4.38 172.33
Mdsx High 0.55 4.19 164.76 0.65 4.43 174.30
Mdsx Avg 0.55 -0.31 4.19 164.76 0.63 -0.27 4.40 173.32
Hensall 0.58 4.21 165.74 0.65 4.43 174.30
Bruce 0.55 4.19 164.76 0.65 4.43 174.30
Putnam 0.60 4.24 166.72 0.70 4.48 176.27
Burford 0.60 4.24 166.72 0.70 4.48 176.27
Port Perry 0.80 4.44 174.60 0.70 4.48 176.27
Norfolk 0.65 4.29 168.69 0.70 4.48 176.27
Palmerston 0.60 4.24 166.72 0.65 4.43 174.30
Varna 0.60 4.24 166.72 0.65 4.43 174.30
Trenton 1.00 4.64 182.47 0.80 4.58 180.21
Winchester 1.00 4.64 182.47 1.00 4.78 188.08
North Gower 0.92 4.56 179.32 0.72 4.50 177.06
Huron FOB 0.80 4.44 174.60 0.72 4.50 177.06
Kent FOB 0.75 4.39 172.63 0.65 4.43 174.30
Lamb FOB 0.80 4.44 174.60 0.65 4.43 174.30
Mdsx FOB 0.75 0.75N/A N/A 4.39 172.63 0.75 4.53 178.24
FOB SW Que 1.48 5.12 201.37N/A
Track 1.05 4.69 184.44N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 0.95N/A 0.80 0.80 4.58 180.21
Sarn-Eth 1.00 0.95N/A 0.85 4.64 182.47 0.85 4.63 182.18
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.25 1.10 1.05 4.83 190.05
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.00 4.78 188.08
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.25 1.10 1.25 5.03 197.92
W O Feed 1.26 4.90 192.87
US Rep 1.28 4.92 193.49
Toledo El. -0.13 3.51 138.16 -0.31 3.46 136.37
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A 0.65 4.43174 1/3
MID SD CRN 0.62 1/2 4.40 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.65 4.42 3/4
*Wet Bid
Exchange rate was 1.2569 up 0.0016
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately lower.
NOV17 HI 9.76 1/4 NOV17 HI 9.76 1/4
LOW 9.55 1/2 LOW 9.55 1/2
CLOSE9.60 1/2 Down 17 CLOSE 9.60 1/2 Down 17
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV17
CK Low 1.85 11.46 420.901.65 11.26 413.55
CK High 1.90 11.51 422.741.75 11.36 417.22
CK Average 1.89 -0.4611.49 422.251.68 -0.6011.29 414.71
Essex Cty 1.85 11.46 420.901.60 11.21 411.71
Mdsx Low 1.90 11.51 422.741.70 11.31 415.39
Mdsx High 1.90 11.51 422.741.75 11.36 417.22
Mdsx Average 1.90 -0.4511.51 422.741.73 -0.5711.33 416.31
Hensall 1.90 11.50 422.551.75 11.36 417.22
Bruce 1.90 11.51 422.741.75 11.36 417.22
Putnam 1.90 11.51 422.741.70 11.31 415.39
Burford 2.00 11.61 426.411.80 11.41 419.06
Port Perry 1.93 11.54 423.841.73 11.34 416.49
Norfolk N/A 1.72 11.33 416.12
Palmerston 1.85 11.46 420.901.70 11.31 415.39
Varna 1.85 11.46 420.901.75 11.36 417.22
Trenton 1.80 11.41 419.061.70 11.31 415.39
Winchester 1.76 11.37 417.591.76 11.37 417.59
North Gower 1.61 11.22 412.081.84 11.45 420.53
Huron FOB 1.99 11.60 426.041.85 11.46 420.90
Kent FOB 2.00 11.61 426.411.67 11.28 414.29
Lambton FOB 2.10 11.71 430.091.85 11.46 420.90
Middlesex FOB2.10 2.10 N/A N/A 11.71 430.091.90 11.51 422.74
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.44 2.37 2.25 2.30 12.05 442.582.25 11.86 435.60
N/A N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.00 11.61 426.412.18 11.79 433.02
Sarnia 2.14 11.75 431.551.95 11.56 424.57
Toledo El. -0.33 9.28 340.92-0.64 8.97 329.43
Exchange rate was 1.2569 up 0.0016
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
SEP17 HI 4.63 3/4 JUL18 HI 5.32 3/4
LOW 4.54 1/4 LOW 5.25 1/2
CLOSE 4.57 3/4 Down 3 CLOSE 5.29 1/2 Down 2 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly to moderately lower.
SEP17 HI 7.22 SEP18 HI 6.48 3/4
LOW 7.07 1/2 LOW 6.42 1/2
CLOSE 7.13 1/4 Down 9 CLOSE 6.45 Down 2 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.80 0.80 0.74 -0.05
CAD $/bu 5.38 5.38 5.31 7.08
CAD $/tonne 197.55 197.55 195.24 260.13
Direct MarkHarvest 2017 Harvest 2018
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.55 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
London 0.72 0.66 0.54 N/A 0.84 0.65 0.59 N/A
Hensall 0.75 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.90 N/A 0.60 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A N/A 0.85 N/A
Bruce N/A N/A N/A 0.25 0.90 0.65 0.60 0.35
Essex N/A N/A 0.51 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Norwich 0.75 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.90 N/A 0.60 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.70 0.70 N/A N/A 0.70 0.70 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.75 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.90 N/A 0.60 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.55 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.55 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.60 0.55 0.25 N/A 0.65 0.60 0.35
Varna 0.85 0.60 0.55 N/A 0.85 0.65 0.60 N/A
Mitchell 0.75 0.60 0.55 N/A 0.90 0.70 0.60 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.45 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.68 0.62 -0.17 N/A 0.79 0.79 0.14
W O Feed 1.16
TERMINAL
Sarnia 1.00 N/A 0.90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Prescott N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.24N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Toledo El. 4.48US 5.63CA 5.10US 6.39CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 18 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.84 0.78 0.78 0.26
CAD $/bu 6.14 6.07 6.07 6.71
CAD $/tonne 225.52 223.21 223.21 246.48
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 448.98
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 155.00 - 160.00
---
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for August 2, 2017
By Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, August 2 2017 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sept 3.65 ↓ 08 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 9.77 ↓ 23 cents
Wheat CBOT Sept 4.60 ↓ 18 cents
Wheat Minn. Sept 7.22 ↓ 08 cents
Wheat Kansas Sept 4.64 ↓ 11 cents
Chicago Oats Sept 2.89 ↓ 01 cents
Canadian $ Sept .7961 ↓ .55 points
CORN:
Corn prices are on-track to test the $3.50 - $3.60 support level that I spoke of last week. September corn closed on August 2 at $3.64. The entire grain complex has been under pressure after having the best week in more than a year. We should see solid good at this $3.50 level, but failing to do so on a close could suggest lower prices into the harvest. The primary down-trend line sits at the $4 level on the lead month contract. I feel we will eventually attempt another run at the primary trend line but not in the near term.
Initial support on the September futures is seen at $3.50 - $3.60, while overhead resistance is still at $4, also on the September contract.
Short term indicators are neutral and the primary trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
We are currently sitting at $9.75 on the November soybean contract just 10 cents from our targeted $9.60 support area. From the support level of $9.60, I expect to see at least a rally of 50 cents per bushel on the Chicago futures even if we don’t challenge the $10.50 trend line again in the coming weeks. Weather continues to dominate the headlines as eyes are on the estimated yields in the coming weeks.
Initial support is at the $9.60 level, in which case, we may not see our $9 target price. Our red buy signal on the daily chart from July 3 is still intact and until we neutralize this signal with a red sell signal, we continue to be hopeful for a decent rally towards the $10 level once again.
Short term indicators are still positive, but the primary trend is still down.
WHEAT:
Minneapolis wheat slowed a bit this week as we lost about five cents per bushel in total on the September contract. Our support target was $7 on September, but we held slightly higher than that in the $7.10 area. From here we could get a pop but I still feel we could see September trade between the $6.50 - $7 range before we turn back higher. I feel this correction was overdue. Eventually we could trade higher, but for now, the pressure is on the downside and the weather is still an issue with the spring crop. Any sizeable rallies in the near term could be viewed as a selling opportunity.
Unfortunately Chicago futures didn’t fare well after receiving the red sell signal last week. Futures tumbled 35 cents a bushel since we saw the sell signal on July 25. Meanwhile, our best support area we see is now at the $4.25 - $4.35 area on September as mentioned last week. Short term indicators are negative, and our main trend has turned back to neutral according to our weekly charts.
Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, August 2 are as follows:
SWW @ $198.91/MT ($5.41/bu), HRW @ $198.91/MT ($5.41/bu),
HRS @ $263.98/MT ($7.18/bu), SRW @ $196.60/MT ($5.35/bu),
----
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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