[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Sep 1 15:40:48 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, September 1
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3107 down 0.0017
Chicago corn closed moderately higher.
DEC16 HI 3.25 DEC16 HI 3.25
LOW 3.15 LOW 3.15
CLOSE3.23 3/4 Up 8 1/4 CLOSE 3.23 3/4 Up 8 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC16+DEC16+MAR17
CK Low 1.05 4.29 168.79 0.85 4.09 160.92
CK High 1.15 4.39 172.73 0.85 4.09 160.92
CK Avg 1.10 0.07 4.34 170.76 0.85 -0.11 4.09 160.92
Essex Cty 1.15 4.39 172.73 0.85 4.09 160.92
Mdsx Low 1.10 4.34 170.76 0.85 4.09 160.92
Mdsx High 1.10 4.34 170.76 0.90 4.14 162.89
Mdsx Avg 1.10 0.07 4.34 170.76 0.88 -0.09 4.11 161.90
Hensall 1.10 4.34 170.76 0.90 4.14 162.89
Bruce 1.00 4.24 166.82 0.90 4.14 162.89
Putnam 1.10 4.34 170.76 0.85 4.09 160.92
Burford 1.10 4.34 170.76 0.85 4.09 160.92
Port Perry 1.10 4.34 170.76 0.90 4.14 162.89
Norfolk 1.10 4.34 170.76 0.90 4.14 162.89
Palmerston 1.15 4.39 172.73 0.85 4.09 160.92
Varna 1.10 4.34 170.76 0.90 4.14 162.89
Trenton 1.20 4.44 174.70 0.90 4.14 162.89
Winchester 1.00 4.24 166.82 1.10 4.34 170.76
North Gower 1.22 4.46 175.48 1.09 4.33 170.37
Huron FOB 1.27 4.51 177.45 0.90 4.14 162.89
Kent FOB 1.20 4.44 174.70 0.85 4.09 160.92
Lamb FOB 1.20 4.44 174.70 0.85 4.09 160.92
Mdsx FOB 1.10N/A N/A N/A 4.34 170.76 0.90 4.14 162.89
FOB SW Que 1.70 4.94 194.38N/A
Track 1.51 4.75 186.90N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 1.30 1.05 1.15 1.05 4.29 168.79
Sarn-Eth 1.30 1.15 1.15N/A 4.54 178.63 1.15 4.39 172.73
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing 1.36 1.36 1.00 1.17 4.60 181.00 1.00 4.24 166.82
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.45 1.05 1.22 1.05 4.29 168.79
Cardnl-Ing N/A 1.35 1.15 1.36 1.15 4.39 172.73
W O Feed 1.63 4.86 191.47
US Rep 1.60 4.84 190.44
Toledo El. N/A -0.26 2.98 117.16
MID SD CRN 0.85 4.08 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.85 4.08 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3107 down 0.0017
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
NOV16 HI 9.48 1/2 NOV16 HI 9.48 1/2
LOW 9.37 LOW 9.37
CLOSE9.43 3/4 Up 3/4 CLOSE 9.43 3/4 Up 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+JAN17
CK Low 2.48 11.92 437.892.48 11.92 437.89
CK High 2.95 12.39 455.162.55 11.99 440.47
CK Average 2.72 -0.1512.16 446.772.51 -0.3011.95 439.12
Essex Cty 2.95 12.39 455.162.55 11.99 440.47
Mdsx Low 2.46 11.90 437.162.46 11.90 437.16
Mdsx High 2.70 12.14 445.982.50 11.94 438.63
Mdsx Average 2.58 -0.2612.02 441.572.48 -0.3211.92 437.89
Hensall 2.73 12.16 446.902.53 11.96 439.55
Bruce 2.70 12.14 445.982.50 11.94 438.63
Putnam N/A 2.55 11.99 440.47
Burford 2.49 11.93 438.262.49 11.93 438.26
Port Perry 2.46 11.90 437.162.46 11.90 437.16
Norfolk 2.55 11.99 440.472.55 11.99 440.47
Palmerston 2.95 12.39 455.162.55 11.99 440.47
Varna 2.95 12.39 455.162.55 11.99 440.47
Trenton N/A 2.65 12.09 444.14
Winchester N/A 2.45 11.89 436.79
North Gower N/A 2.41 11.85 435.32
Huron FOB 2.85 12.29 451.492.65 12.09 444.14
Kent FOB N/A 2.60 12.04 442.30
Lambton FOB N/A 2.55 11.99 440.47
Middlesex FOB2.91 N/A 2.76 N/A 12.35 453.692.69 12.13 445.61
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.25 3.00 3.10 3.18 12.69 466.193.00 12.44 457.00
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.87 12.31 452.223.00 12.44 457.00
Toledo El. N/A -0.42 9.02 331.39
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3107 down 0.0017
Chicago wheat closed moderately higher.
DEC16 HI 3.97 1/4 JUL17 HI 4.43
LOW 3.89 1/2 LOW 4.36 1/2
CLOSE 3.94 3/4 Up 6 1/2 CLOSE 4.41 1/4 Up 7
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC16 HI 4.88 SEP17 HI 5.27 1/2
LOW 4.82 LOW 5.21
CLOSE 4.86 Up 4 1/2 CLOSE 5.24 3/4 Up 4 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.50 0.44 0.57 0.20
CAD $/bu 4.45 4.38 4.52 5.06
CAD $/tonne 163.51 161.10 165.91 185.76
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A 0.15 0.10 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
London 0.11 0.04 0.11 N/A 0.45 0.32 0.39 N/A
Hensall 0.10 N/A 0.10 N/A 0.50 N/A 0.40 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.15 N/A N/A N/A 0.41 N/A
Norwich 0.10 N/A 0.10 N/A 0.50 N/A 0.40 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.10 0.20 N/A N/A 0.35 0.40 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.10 N/A 0.10 N/A 0.50 N/A 0.40 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.10 0.15 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.15 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.30 0.15 0.30 N/A 0.40 0.45 0.50
Varna 0.20 0.10 0.15 N/A 0.50 0.40 0.40 N/A
Mitchell 0.10 0.10 0.10 N/A 0.50 0.35 0.40 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.26 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.32 0.45 0.09 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.40 0.60 0.40 N/A 0.60 0.60 0.45
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.22 N/A N/A N/A 1.36 N/A
Toledo El. 3.63US 4.75CA 4.21US 5.51CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.70 0.64 0.38
CAD $/bu 5.12 5.05 4.79
CAD $/tonne 187.98 185.58 175.97
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 484.91
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 170.00 - 175.00
-----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for August 31, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, August 31, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Dec
3.15
↓
15
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov
9.45
↓
60
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec
3.88
↓
37
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec
4.81
↓
28
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec
3.98
↓
36
cents
Chicago Oats
Dec
1.76
↓
09
cents
Canadian $
Sep
.7224
↓
1.03
points
CORN: With first notice day upon us as of August 31, the pressure is on as the latest numbers show a record 15 billion bushels of corn due to be harvested in the U.S. Technically the charts look negative, and at this point there is no reason to try and guess a bottom price. The only indication that I will look for is a “throw your hands up” type of washout followed by a quick rally back to unchanged or better in the same trading session. This is a classic formation that usually spells the end of an extended price move. Until we see this type of action, our prediction for future pricing is more of a guess than a science.
On a more positive note, we have a long weekend in the U.S. as well as in Canada and these weekends have been known to be associated with price reversals. As for the charts, the only indications for support is the 10 year low of $2.90 on the monthly chart going back to 2006. If we get a close below this area, we will be in price territory that has not been seen for more than 10 years.
Short term support is seen at $3.00- $3.15 on the December contract. Indicators are still negative but are getting very oversold in all time frames. The main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: Soybeans have broken support at the $9.50 level but continue to look stronger technically than both corn and wheat. The next major report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is scheduled for September 12 and until we get a more accurate yield count, there is no reason to expect the downward pressure to subside. The indicators are negative and the updated yields will play a big part in the short term direction. Until these numbers are finalized, I feel we will trade on both sides of the $10 per bushel mark based on the November contract. August 31 was the first notice day for the September futures and could alleviate some selling pressure by the specs. Using our November contract for analysis, we see minor support at $9.25 and major support at the $8.50 price based on the lead contract. Signals are negative, but if the yields are adjusted downward in September, we could still see a decent rally.
WHEAT: The December Chicago wheat broke the $4 support level that was as suggested last week and continues to be under pressure. The September contract entered first notice day today which basically eliminates speculator positions and any remaining traders are at risk for delivery. This should produce fair market value for the current cash price for wheat. With the first notice day and a long weekend in both the U.S and Canada, coupled with 10 year lows, we could see a reason to hope for a bounce in prices going into the September 12 USDA report. Our overhead resistance now stands at $4 - $4.30 on our December contract. Meanwhile, our support level has moved down to $3.50 - $3.75. The indicators are negative, and the main trend is still down.
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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