[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report Plus Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Oct 12 15:51:29 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, October 12
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3277 up 0.0038
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.
DEC16 HI 3.48 1/2 DEC17 HI 3.87 1/4
LOW 3.36 1/2 LOW 3.77
CLOSE3.37 Down 8 1/2 CLOSE 3.77 1/4 Down 7
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC16+MAR17+MAR17
CK Low 0.95 4.32 170.07 0.60 4.37 172.14
CK High 1.00 4.37 172.04 0.70 4.47 176.07
CK Avg 0.99 -0.08 4.36 171.71 0.68 -0.41 4.45 175.09
Essex Cty 0.95 4.32 170.07 0.65 4.42 174.11
Mdsx Low 1.00 4.37 172.04 0.70 4.47 176.07
Mdsx High 1.00 4.37 172.04 0.70 4.47 176.07
Mdsx Avg 1.00 -0.07 4.37 172.04 0.70 -0.39 4.47 176.07
Hensall 1.00 4.37 172.04 0.70 4.47 176.07
Bruce 1.00 4.37 172.04 0.70 4.47 176.07
Putnam 1.00 4.37 172.04 0.70 4.47 176.07
Burford 1.00 4.37 172.04 0.70 4.47 176.07
Port Perry 1.10 4.47 175.98 0.75 4.52 178.04
Norfolk 1.00 4.37 172.04 0.70 4.47 176.07
Palmerston 0.95 4.32 170.07 0.65 4.42 174.11
Varna 1.00 4.37 172.04 0.70 4.47 176.07
Trenton 1.25 4.62 181.88 0.80 4.57 180.01
Winchester 1.30 4.67 183.85 1.01 4.78 188.28
North Gower 1.20 4.57 179.91 0.91 4.68 184.34
Huron FOB 1.05 4.42 174.01 0.75 4.52 178.04
Kent FOB 1.05 4.42 174.01 0.70 4.47 176.07
Lamb FOB 1.00 4.37 172.04 0.70 4.47 176.07
Mdsx FOB 1.00 1.00 1.00N/A 4.37 172.04 0.70 4.47 176.07
FOB SW Que 1.22 4.59 180.70N/A
Track 1.40 4.77 187.79N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 4.57 179.91 0.90 4.67 183.95
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A 1.20 0.80 4.57 180.01
Sarn-Eth 1.20 1.20 1.20N/A 4.57 179.91N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.20 1.24 0.83 4.60 181.19
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A 1.24 1.33N/A 0.93 4.70 185.13
W O Feed 1.40 4.77 187.71
US Rep 1.55 4.92 193.69
Toledo El. -0.33 3.04 119.63 -0.33 3.44 135.50
MID SD CRN 0.97 1/2 4.34 1/2
HI SD CRN 1.00 4.37
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3277 up 0.0038
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
NOV16 HI 9.71 1/4 NOV17 HI 9.73 1/2
LOW 9.43 1/4 LOW 9.52 1/2
CLOSE9.45 1/2 Down 8 3/4 CLOSE 9.54 1/2 Down 7 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+JAN1+JAN17
CK Low 2.45 11.91 437.432.20 11.75 431.55
CK High 2.55 12.01 441.112.30 11.85 435.23
CK Average 2.51 -0.4311.96 439.522.27 -0.6111.81 434.00
Essex Cty 2.55 12.01 441.112.25 11.80 433.39
Mdsx Low 2.50 11.96 439.272.25 11.80 433.39
Mdsx High 2.52 11.98 440.012.28 11.83 434.49
Mdsx Average 2.51 -0.4211.97 439.642.27 -0.6111.81 433.94
Hensall 2.53 11.98 440.192.23 11.77 432.47
Bruce 2.50 11.96 439.272.25 11.80 433.39
Putnam 2.50 11.96 439.272.20 11.75 431.55
Burford 2.58 12.04 442.212.34 11.89 436.70
Port Perry 2.49 11.95 438.902.25 11.80 433.39
Norfolk 2.50 11.96 439.272.20 11.75 431.55
Palmerston 2.55 12.01 441.112.25 11.80 433.39
Varna 2.55 12.01 441.112.20 11.75 431.55
Trenton 2.65 12.11 444.782.20 11.75 431.55
Winchester 2.67 12.13 445.522.32 11.87 435.96
North Gower 2.74 12.20 448.092.39 11.94 438.54
Huron FOB 2.65 12.11 444.782.30 11.85 435.23
Kent FOB 2.50 11.96 439.272.25 11.80 433.39
Lambton FOB 2.55 12.01 441.112.45 12.00 440.74
Middlesex FOB2.69 2.82 2.85 N/A 12.15 446.252.45 12.00 440.74
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.12 3.19 3.27 N/A 12.58 462.05 N/A
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 3.05 12.51 459.482.77 12.32 452.50
Toledo El. -0.49 8.96 329.40-0.33 9.21 338.57
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3277 up 0.0038
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC16 HI 4.14 JUL17 HI 4.55 1/4
LOW 3.96 LOW 4.41
CLOSE 3.96 3/4 Down 10 1/2 CLOSE 4.42 Down 7 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC16 HI 5.32 3/4 SEP17 HI 5.47 1/2
LOW 5.20 1/4 LOW 5.41 1/2
CLOSE 5.21 3/4 Down 2 1/2 CLOSE 5.43 Down 3
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.56 0.49 0.56 0.37
CAD $/bu 4.53 4.46 4.53 5.59
CAD $/tonne 166.35 163.92 166.35 205.29
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.25 N/A N/A 0.40 0.45 N/A
London 0.19 0.22 0.26 N/A 0.60 0.46 0.53 N/A
Hensall 0.25 N/A 0.25 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.50 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Bruce 0.25 0.10 0.25 0.30 0.60 0.35 0.50 0.45
Essex N/A N/A 0.15 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Norwich 0.25 N/A 0.25 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.50 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.25 0.25 N/A N/A 0.45 0.50 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.25 N/A 0.25 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.50 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.25 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.25 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.26 0.25 0.30 N/A 0.40 0.45 0.40
Varna 0.25 0.25 0.25 N/A 0.55 0.45 0.45 N/A
Mitchell 0.25 0.25 0.25 N/A 0.60 0.45 0.50 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.07 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.43 0.49 0.17 N/A 0.77 0.77 0.47
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A N/A 0.60 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.29 N/A N/A N/A 1.42 N/A
Toledo El. 3.83US 5.07CA 4.22US 5.58CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.76 0.70 0.70 0.56
CAD $/bu 5.18 5.12 5.12 5.99
CAD $/tonne 190.43 188.01 188.01 220.07
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 460.22
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 200.00 - 205.00
----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for October 12, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, October 12, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY
PERIOD
PRICE
WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT
Dec
3.37
↓
11
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov
9.45
↓
12
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec
3.97
↓
07
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec
5.23
↓
03
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec
3.98
↓
17
cents
Chicago Oats
Dec
1.98
↑
14
cents
Canadian $
Dec
.7558
↑
0.40
points
CORN: The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report was released on October 12 and there were no big surprises as the corn yields were pegged at 173.4 bushels per acre compared to an average guess of 173.5 bushels. The U.S carryout for 2016/2017 came in at 2.32 billion bushels compared to the average trade guess of 2.359 billion. The global carryout was a little shy of the average guess and was pegged at 216.8 million tonnes, compared to the guess of 218.32 million tonnes globally. On the technical side of the equation, there was no real damage done to the charts as the Labour Day bottom is still intact and our upside target is pegged at the $3.70 level on the lead month. Short term support is seen at $3.25 on the December contract, while overhead resistance is seen at the $3.60 - $3.80 level on the lead month. The short term indicators are still positive, but the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: Soybean numbers from the USDA report were in-line in the U.S., with average yields coming in at 51.4 bushels per acre versus the average expectation of 51.5 bushels. The global carryout, however, was the bigger surprise as the report pegged the number at 77.4 million tonnes as opposed to the average guess of just 73.28 million tonnes. This number proved to be somewhat bearish as the beans rallied initially to our overhead resistance line before quickly retreating and becoming negative on the day. The beans have worked themselves into a downward sloping wedge that will culminate in the next couple of weeks. If the pattern fulfills itself, we could see a break and close below the important $9.25 level. This could be enough to drive the prices back towards our $8.50 level that we have been concerned about for weeks since receiving our red sell signal. Meanwhile, until that support is breached, the $9.25 level is still intact and overhead resistance is seen at the $9.80 - $10 mark on the November contract. The main trend is still down.
WHEAT: The wheat numbers on the USDA report showed a U.S. carryout of 1.138 billion bushels compared to an average guess of 1.153 billion bushels. The global carryout was a little lower than expected as the USDA reported 248.4 million tonnes compared to the average guess of 249.72 million tonnes worldwide. The wheat rallied initially off the report before settling 10 cents lower on the day at $3.97 on the December contract. Our charts show no technical damage, but a close lower than the $3.96 on December could setup a retest of the important Labour Day lows of $3.85 on the December contract. Support is seen at $3.80 on the Chicago contract, while serious overhead resistance is at $4.25 and again at $4.50 based on the December contract. The main trend is still down.
2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of close on October 12, 2016
SWW @ $166.32MT ($4.53/bu), HRW @ $163.88/MT ($4.46/bu),
HRS @ $205.22/MT ($5.59/bu), SRW @ $166.32/MT ($4.53/bu).
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>
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