[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report Plus Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Oct 12 15:51:29 EDT 2016


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, October 12
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3277 up 0.0038
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.

      DEC16   HI 3.48  1/2                    DEC17    HI 3.87  1/4
             LOW 3.36  1/2                            LOW 3.77
            CLOSE3.37   Down 8 1/2                  CLOSE 3.77  1/4  Down 7

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +DEC16+MAR17+MAR17
CK Low       0.95                        4.32 170.07  0.60         4.37 172.14
CK High      1.00                        4.37 172.04  0.70         4.47 176.07
CK Avg       0.99                  -0.08 4.36 171.71  0.68 -0.41   4.45 175.09
Essex Cty    0.95                        4.32 170.07  0.65         4.42 174.11
Mdsx Low     1.00                        4.37 172.04  0.70         4.47 176.07
Mdsx High    1.00                        4.37 172.04  0.70         4.47 176.07
Mdsx Avg     1.00                  -0.07 4.37 172.04  0.70 -0.39   4.47 176.07
Hensall      1.00                        4.37 172.04  0.70         4.47 176.07
Bruce        1.00                        4.37 172.04  0.70         4.47 176.07
Putnam       1.00                        4.37 172.04  0.70         4.47 176.07
Burford      1.00                        4.37 172.04  0.70         4.47 176.07
Port Perry   1.10                        4.47 175.98  0.75         4.52 178.04
Norfolk      1.00                        4.37 172.04  0.70         4.47 176.07
Palmerston   0.95                        4.32 170.07  0.65         4.42 174.11
Varna        1.00                        4.37 172.04  0.70         4.47 176.07
Trenton      1.25                        4.62 181.88  0.80         4.57 180.01
Winchester   1.30                        4.67 183.85  1.01         4.78 188.28
North Gower  1.20                        4.57 179.91  0.91         4.68 184.34
Huron FOB    1.05                        4.42 174.01  0.75         4.52 178.04
Kent FOB     1.05                        4.42 174.01  0.70         4.47 176.07
Lamb FOB     1.00                        4.37 172.04  0.70         4.47 176.07
Mdsx FOB     1.00  1.00  1.00N/A         4.37 172.04  0.70         4.47 176.07
FOB SW Que   1.22                        4.59 180.70N/A
Track        1.40                        4.77 187.79N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth     1.20  1.20  1.20  1.20      4.57 179.91  0.90         4.67 183.95
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A  N/A   N/A     1.20                   0.80         4.57 180.01
Sarn-Eth     1.20  1.20  1.20N/A         4.57 179.91N/A
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
London-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.20  1.24                   0.83         4.60 181.19
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Cardnl-Ing  N/A    1.24  1.33N/A                      0.93         4.70 185.13
W O Feed     1.40                        4.77 187.71

US Rep       1.55                        4.92 193.69
Toledo El.  -0.33                        3.04 119.63 -0.33         3.44 135.50


MID SD CRN   0.97   1/2                  4.34 1/2
HI SD CRN    1.00                        4.37
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3277 up 0.0038
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.

       NOV16   HI 9.71  1/4           NOV17    HI 9.73  1/2
              LOW 9.43  1/4                   LOW 9.52  1/2
             CLOSE9.45  1/2  Down 8 3/4     CLOSE 9.54  1/2  Down 7 3/4

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +NOV1+JAN1+JAN17
CK Low       2.45                     11.91 437.432.20      11.75 431.55
CK High      2.55                     12.01 441.112.30      11.85 435.23
CK Average   2.51                -0.4311.96 439.522.27 -0.6111.81 434.00
Essex Cty    2.55                     12.01 441.112.25      11.80 433.39
Mdsx Low     2.50                     11.96 439.272.25      11.80 433.39
Mdsx High    2.52                     11.98 440.012.28      11.83 434.49
Mdsx Average 2.51                -0.4211.97 439.642.27 -0.6111.81 433.94
Hensall      2.53                     11.98 440.192.23      11.77 432.47
Bruce        2.50                     11.96 439.272.25      11.80 433.39
Putnam       2.50                     11.96 439.272.20      11.75 431.55
Burford      2.58                     12.04 442.212.34      11.89 436.70
Port Perry   2.49                     11.95 438.902.25      11.80 433.39
Norfolk      2.50                     11.96 439.272.20      11.75 431.55
Palmerston   2.55                     12.01 441.112.25      11.80 433.39
Varna        2.55                     12.01 441.112.20      11.75 431.55
Trenton      2.65                     12.11 444.782.20      11.75 431.55
Winchester   2.67                     12.13 445.522.32      11.87 435.96
North Gower  2.74                     12.20 448.092.39      11.94 438.54
Huron FOB    2.65                     12.11 444.782.30      11.85 435.23
Kent FOB     2.50                     11.96 439.272.25      11.80 433.39
Lambton FOB  2.55                     12.01 441.112.45      12.00 440.74
Middlesex FOB2.69 2.82 2.85  N/A      12.15 446.252.45      12.00 440.74

PROCESSORS
Hamilton     3.12 3.19 3.27  N/A      12.58 462.05 N/A
Windsor       N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A                   N/A
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Prescott     3.05                     12.51 459.482.77      12.32 452.50

Toledo El.   -0.49                     8.96 329.40-0.33      9.21 338.57


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3277 up 0.0038
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC16      HI         4.14              JUL17   HI      4.55  1/4
           LOW        3.96                      LOW        4.41
           CLOSE  3.96  3/4  Down 10 1/2        CLOSE   4.42   Down 7 3/4

Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC16      HI     5.32  3/4             SEP17   HI      5.47  1/2
           LOW    5.20  1/4                     LOW     5.41  1/2
           CLOSE  5.21  3/4  Down 2 1/2         CLOSE   5.43   Down 3

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.56          0.49            0.56          0.37
CAD $/bu              4.53          4.46            4.53          5.59
CAD $/tonne         166.35        163.92          166.35        205.29


Direct MarkHarvest 2016                 Harvest 2017
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    0.25    N/A    N/A     0.40   0.45    N/A
London      0.19    0.22   0.26    N/A    0.60    0.46   0.53    N/A
Hensall     0.25    N/A    0.25    N/A    0.60    N/A    0.50    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A    0.20    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.40    N/A
Bruce       0.25    0.10   0.25   0.30    0.60    0.35   0.50   0.45
Essex        N/A    N/A    0.15    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.40    N/A
Norwich     0.25    N/A    0.25    N/A    0.60    N/A    0.50    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    0.25   0.25    N/A    N/A     0.45   0.50    N/A
Kent Bridge 0.25    N/A    0.25    N/A    0.60    N/A    0.50    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A    0.25    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.45    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.25    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.45    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    0.26   0.25   0.30    N/A     0.40   0.45   0.40
Varna       0.25    0.25   0.25    N/A    0.55    0.45   0.45    N/A
Mitchell    0.25    0.25   0.25    N/A    0.60    0.45   0.50    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.07    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    0.43   0.49   0.17    N/A     0.77   0.77   0.47

TERMINAL
Prescott     N/A    N/A    0.60    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.60    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM    N/A    N/A    1.29    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.42    N/A

Toledo El. 3.83US         5.07CA        4.22US          5.58CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.76          0.70            0.70          0.56
CAD $/bu              5.18          5.12            5.12          5.99
CAD $/tonne         190.43        188.01          188.01        220.07

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal             460.22
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      200.00 - 205.00



----

Ontario Grain Market Commentary for October 12, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario

Wednesday, October 12, 2016 Closing Prices

COMMODITY

PERIOD

PRICE

WEEKLY MOVEMENT

Corn CBOT

Dec

3.37

↓

         11

cents

Soybeans CBOT

Nov

9.45

↓

 12

cents

Wheat CBOT

Dec

3.97

↓

07

cents

Wheat Minn.

Dec

5.23

↓

03

cents

Wheat Kansas

Dec

3.98

↓

17

cents

Chicago Oats

Dec

1.98

↑

14

cents













Canadian $

Dec

.7558

↑

0.40

points


CORN:  The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report was released on October 12 and there were no big surprises as the corn yields were pegged at 173.4 bushels per acre compared to an average guess of 173.5 bushels. The U.S carryout for 2016/2017 came in at 2.32 billion bushels compared to the average trade guess of 2.359 billion. The global carryout was a little shy of the average guess and was pegged at 216.8 million tonnes, compared to the guess of 218.32 million tonnes globally. On the technical side of the equation, there was no real damage done to the charts as the Labour Day bottom is still intact and our upside target is pegged at the $3.70 level on the lead month. Short term support is seen at $3.25 on the December contract, while overhead resistance is seen at the $3.60 - $3.80 level on the lead month. The short term indicators are still positive, but the main trend is still down.

SOYBEANS: Soybean numbers from the USDA report were in-line in the U.S., with average yields coming in at 51.4 bushels per acre versus the average expectation of 51.5 bushels. The global carryout, however, was the bigger surprise as the report pegged the number at 77.4 million tonnes as opposed to the average guess of just 73.28 million tonnes. This number proved to be somewhat bearish as the beans rallied initially to our overhead resistance line before quickly retreating and becoming negative on the day. The beans have worked themselves into a downward sloping wedge that will culminate in the next couple of weeks. If the pattern fulfills itself, we could see a break and close below the important $9.25 level. This could be enough to drive the prices back towards our $8.50 level that we have been concerned about for weeks since receiving our red sell signal. Meanwhile, until that support is breached, the $9.25 level is still intact and overhead resistance is seen at the $9.80 - $10 mark on the November contract. The main trend is still down.
 WHEAT:  The wheat numbers on the USDA report showed a U.S. carryout of 1.138 billion bushels compared to an average guess of 1.153 billion bushels. The global carryout was a little lower than expected as the USDA reported 248.4 million tonnes compared to the average guess of 249.72 million tonnes worldwide. The wheat rallied initially off the report before settling 10 cents lower on the day at $3.97 on the December contract. Our charts show no technical damage, but a close lower than the $3.96 on December could setup a retest of the important Labour Day lows of $3.85 on the December contract. Support is seen at $3.80 on the Chicago contract, while serious overhead resistance is at $4.25 and again at $4.50 based on the December contract. The main trend is still down.

2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of close on October 12, 2016

SWW @ $166.32MT ($4.53/bu),  HRW @ $163.88/MT ($4.46/bu),
HRS @ $205.22/MT ($5.59/bu),  SRW @ $166.32/MT ($4.53/bu).

Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>

Click on this link: farmmarketnews-unsubscribe at list.gfo.ca  to unsubscribe from this report.
This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario






















-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20161012/72c84da5/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
An embedded and charset-unspecified text was scrubbed...
Name: corn.txt
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20161012/72c84da5/attachment-0001.txt>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: grain.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 265470 bytes
Desc: grain.pdf
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20161012/72c84da5/attachment-0002.pdf>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: wheatcom.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 396993 bytes
Desc: wheatcom.pdf
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20161012/72c84da5/attachment-0003.pdf>


More information about the Farmmarketnews mailing list