[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu May 26 15:33:00 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, May 26
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2981 down 0.0109
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
JUL16 HI 4.09 1/4 DEC16 HI 4.11
LOW 4.00 LOW 4.03 3/4
CLOSE4.08 1/4 Up 3 1/2 CLOSE 4.09 3/4 Up 1 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL16+SEP16+SEP16
CK Low 0.80 4.88 192.22 0.70 4.80 188.87
CK High 0.85 4.93 194.18 0.75 4.85 190.84
CK Avg 0.81 -0.32 4.89 192.54 0.71 -0.40 4.81 189.20
Essex Cty 0.80 4.88 192.22 0.70 4.80 188.87
Mdsx Low 0.80 4.88 192.22 0.70 4.80 188.87
Mdsx High 0.80 4.88 192.22 0.70 4.80 188.87
Mdsx Avg 0.80 -0.32 4.88 192.22 0.70 -0.40 4.80 188.87
Hensall 0.83 4.91 193.20 0.73 4.82 189.85
Bruce 0.80 4.88 192.22 0.70 4.80 188.87
Putnam 0.80 4.88 192.22 0.70 4.80 188.87
Burford 0.80 4.88 192.22 0.70 4.80 188.87
Port Perry 0.80 4.88 192.22 0.70 4.80 188.87
Norfolk 0.80 4.88 192.22 0.70 4.80 188.87
Palmerston 0.80 4.88 192.22 0.70 4.80 188.87
Varna 0.85 4.93 194.18 0.70 4.80 188.87
Trenton 0.90 4.98 196.15 0.80 4.90 192.81
Winchester 0.90 4.98 196.15 0.90 5.00 196.74
North Gower 0.88 4.96 195.36 0.85 4.95 194.77
Huron FOB 1.05 5.13 202.06 0.77 4.87 191.63
Kent FOB 1.00 5.08 200.09 0.80 4.90 192.81
Lamb FOB 1.00 5.08 200.09 0.75 4.85 190.84
Mdsx FOB 0.95 0.95N/A N/A 5.03 198.12 0.70 4.80 188.87
FOB SW Que 1.20 5.28 207.96N/A
Track 1.34 5.42 213.28N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 5.23 205.99 0.95 5.05 198.71
Sarn-Eth N/A 1.25 1.25 1.30 N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 5.05 198.71
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.40 1.00 5.10 200.68
Pt.Colb-Ing 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.40 5.43 213.87N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.40 1.00 5.10 200.68
W O Feed 1.43 5.51 216.94
US Rep 1.54 5.62 221.35
Toledo El. -0.01 4.07 160.21 -0.26 3.84 151.08
MID SD CRN 0.72 1/2 4.82 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.75 4.84 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2981 down 0.0109
Chicago soybeans closed mixed.
JUL16 HI 10.98 NOV16 HI 10.65
LOW 10.73 1/4 LOW 10.44 1/4
CLOSE10.79 3/4 Down 5 3/4 CLOSE 10.50 1/2 Down 3 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+JUL1+AUG16
CK Low 2.49 13.29 488.232.28 12.79 469.77
CK High 2.65 13.45 494.112.40 12.91 474.18
CK Average 2.55 -0.5213.35 490.382.33 -0.6212.84 471.73
Essex Cty 2.55 13.35 490.442.35 12.86 472.34
Mdsx Low 2.47 13.27 487.502.26 12.77 469.03
Mdsx High 2.50 13.30 488.602.30 12.81 470.50
Mdsx Average 2.49 -0.5713.28 488.052.28 -0.6612.79 469.77
Hensall 2.53 13.32 489.522.33 12.83 471.42
Bruce 2.50 13.30 488.602.30 12.81 470.50
Putnam 2.60 13.40 492.272.40 12.91 474.18
Burford 2.50 13.30 488.602.29 12.80 470.14
Port Perry 2.47 13.27 487.502.26 12.77 469.03
Norfolk 2.55 13.35 490.442.32 12.83 471.24
Palmerston 2.55 13.35 490.442.35 12.86 472.34
Varna 2.55 13.35 490.442.35 12.86 472.34
Trenton 2.60 13.40 492.272.30 12.81 470.50
Winchester 2.40 13.20 484.932.44 12.95 475.65
North Gower 2.28 13.08 480.522.34 12.85 471.97
Huron FOB 2.70 13.50 495.952.45 12.96 476.01
Kent FOB 2.70 13.50 495.952.42 12.93 474.91
Lambton FOB 2.60 13.40 492.272.55 13.06 479.69
Middlesex FOB2.64 2.64 2.80 N/A 13.44 493.742.39 12.90 473.81
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.04 3.04 3.17 3.29 13.84 508.442.82 13.33 489.61
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 1.95 12.75 468.392.80 13.31 488.88
Toledo El. -0.30 10.50 385.76-0.42 10.09 370.72
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2981 down 0.0109
Chicago wheat closed higher.
JUL16 HI 4.82 JUL16 HI 4.82
LOW 4.65 1/2 LOW 4.65 1/2
CLOSE 4.81 1/4 Up 15 1/4 CLOSE 4.81 1/4 Up 15 1/4
Minni wheat closed higher.
JUL16 HI 5.36 SEP16 HI 5.43
LOW 5.22 1/4 LOW 5.29 3/4
CLOSE 5.34 1/2 Up 12 1/2 CLOSE 5.42 1/4 Up 12 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.92 0.71 0.65 0.77
CAD $/bu 7.73 5.52 5.46 6.11
CAD $/tonne 284.08 202.95 200.57 224.55
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.40 0.40 N/A
London 2.73 0.34 0.54 N/A 0.66 0.34 0.34 N/A
Hensall 2.75 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.45 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.45 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Norwich 2.75 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.45 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.40 0.65 -0.15 N/A 0.45 0.50 0.52
Kent Bridge 2.75 N/A -0.10 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.45 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.40 0.40 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.30 0.50 0.55 N/A 0.45 0.40 0.55
Varna 2.65 0.35 0.50 N/A 0.65 0.40 0.40 N/A
Mitchell 2.75 0.40 0.60 N/A 0.70 0.45 0.45 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.01 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.49 0.42 0.55 N/A 0.38 0.53 0.73
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.30 N/A 0.45 N/A 0.25 0.80 0.75
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 1.24 N/A 1.96 N/A 1.24 N/A
Toledo El. 4.71US 6.12CA 4.71US 6.12CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.79 0.66 0.66 0.84
CAD $/bu 5.60 5.47 5.47 6.26
CAD $/tonne 205.82 201.04 201.04 230.16
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 623.48
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 210.00
Weekly Ontario Grain Market Commentary by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, May 25, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT July 4.05 ↑ 06 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 10.85 ↑ 10 cents
Wheat CBOT July 4.66 ↑ 07 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.22 ↓ 10 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.51 ↓ 06 cents
Chicago Oats July 1.90 ↓ 3 cents
Canadian $ June .7650 ↓ .45 points
CORN:
We are sitting at the $4.05 level on July corn as of the close on May 25. We are virtually at the highs of the week prior and will find out whether or not we continue this rally or run the stops above $4.07 and the reverse. My guess is that we will see higher prices in the month of June due to the red bullish technical signal we received on May 10 and spoke of last week. The May long weekend in the U.S. can play havoc with the markets, and it will be interesting to see how the grains behave going into the month of June. A close above the $4.07 would also violate a four-year-old trend line on the long-term charts and set us up for a test of the 2015 pivot point at $4.20 - $4.40.
We are looking at a support level of $3.70 and again at $3.50 with initial overhead resistance of $4.10 - $4.20 based on the closing prices of the July Chicago futures. Short and medium term indicators are now positive, but the long term trend is still down but trying to turn upward.
SOYBEANS:
The beans continue to tread water off their May 10 high and are preparing to challenge that high of $10.92 and possibly violate $11 on the July contract this week. The key with this move is to see if we can close above $11 and keep the momentum intact. If so, our next goal is to close above the resistance level of $11.25 on July. I feel there is not much resistance once we get past $10.25 until we close in on the $12 mark on the Chicago futures price. Support is now seen at $10, while overhead resistance remains at $11 and $11.25. Short term indicators remain bullish, but the long term trend is still negative.
WHEAT:
Wheat continues to be the weaker of the grains; the softness in the beans and corn actually translated into weakness in the wheat as it lost 15 cents on the week. At this point in time, it seems that the wheat is dependent on a strong performance in both the corn and beans to have any hope of higher prices in the coming weeks.
We see major support at the $4.35 - $4.45 on July with resistance between the $4.85 and $5.20 area on the July contract. A close above $5.25 on July could be the start of a sustained move higher into the month of June. That is a big order for now but all markets turn at some point in time and the turn-around starts out as a minor move. Unlike the corn and beans, the signals on wheat are mixed and we have not yet received any red confirmation signals to indicate higher prices or a possible reversal even in the short term trend. The long term trend for the time being is still down.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on May 25, 2016
SWW @ $199.18/MT ($5.42bu), HRW @ $194.40/MT ($5.29/bu),
HRS @ $225.04/MT ($6.12/bu), SRW @ $194.40/MT ($5.29/bu).
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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