[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report Plus GFO Weekly Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu May 5 15:36:36 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, May 5
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2853 down 0.0031
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
JUL16 HI 3.79 1/2 DEC16 HI 3.87 1/4
LOW 3.71 1/4 LOW 3.80 1/4
CLOSE3.73 3/4 Down 3 CLOSE 3.81 1/2 Down 3 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL16+SEP16+SEP16
CK Low 0.65 4.39 172.73 0.50 4.32 169.87
CK High 0.70 4.44 174.70 0.60 4.42 173.81
CK Avg 0.66 -0.32 4.40 173.06 0.52 -0.45 4.33 170.53
Essex Cty 0.65 4.39 172.73 0.50 4.32 169.87
Mdsx Low 0.65 4.39 172.73 0.50 4.32 169.87
Mdsx High 0.65 4.39 172.73 0.50 4.32 169.87
Mdsx Avg 0.65 -0.33 4.39 172.73 0.50 -0.46 4.32 169.87
Hensall 0.65 4.39 172.73 0.53 4.34 170.86
Bruce 0.65 4.39 172.73 0.50 4.32 169.87
Putnam 0.65 4.39 172.73 0.50 4.32 169.87
Burford 0.65 4.39 172.73 0.50 4.32 169.87
Port Perry 0.65 4.39 172.73 0.50 4.32 169.87
Norfolk 0.65 4.39 172.73 0.50 4.32 169.87
Palmerston 0.65 4.39 172.73 0.50 4.32 169.87
Varna 0.65 4.39 172.73 0.55 4.37 171.84
Trenton 0.80 4.54 178.63 0.75 4.57 179.72
Winchester 0.85 4.59 180.60 0.85 4.67 183.65
North Gower 0.77 4.51 177.45 0.75 4.57 179.72
Huron FOB 0.83 4.57 179.81 0.55 4.37 171.84
Kent FOB 0.80 4.54 178.63 0.60 4.42 173.81
Lamb FOB 0.85 4.59 180.60 0.65 4.47 175.78
Mdsx FOB 0.65 0.65N/A N/A 4.39 172.73 0.55 4.37 171.84
FOB SW Que 0.92 4.66 183.36N/A
Track 1.09 4.82 189.85N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 0.95 0.95 0.95 1.05 4.69 184.54 0.80 4.62 181.68
Sarn-Eth 1.00 1.00 1.05N/A 4.74 186.51N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 4.77 187.59
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.22 0.87 4.69 184.44
Pt.Colb-Ing 1.20N/A 1.25 1.30 4.94 194.38N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 4.77 187.59
W O Feed 1.22 4.95 195.01
US Rep 1.41 5.15 202.65
Toledo El. -0.01 3.72 146.63 -0.26 3.56 140.06
MID SD CRN 0.55 4.36 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.60 4.41 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2853 down 0.0031
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower to lower.
JUL16 HI 10.47 1/2 NOV16 HI 10.28 1/4
LOW 10.11 1/4 LOW 10.00 1/4
CLOSE10.12 1/4 Down 21 3/4 CLOSE 10.01 1/2 Down 14
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+JUL1+AUG16
CK Low 2.19 12.31 452.412.05 12.07 443.31
CK High 2.30 12.42 456.452.15 12.17 446.99
CK Average 2.23 -0.5212.35 453.942.09 -0.6012.11 444.91
Essex Cty 2.25 12.37 454.612.10 12.12 445.15
Mdsx Low 2.17 12.29 451.672.04 12.06 442.95
Mdsx High 2.20 12.32 452.772.05 12.07 443.31
Mdsx Average 2.19 -0.5512.31 452.222.05 -0.6412.06 443.13
Hensall 2.23 12.35 453.692.08 12.09 444.23
Bruce 2.20 12.32 452.772.05 12.07 443.31
Putnam 2.25 12.37 454.612.10 12.12 445.15
Burford 2.20 12.32 452.772.07 12.09 444.05
Port Perry 2.17 12.29 451.672.04 12.06 442.95
Norfolk 2.25 12.37 454.612.10 12.12 445.15
Palmerston 2.15 12.27 450.942.00 12.02 441.48
Varna 2.25 12.37 454.612.10 12.12 445.15
Trenton 2.30 12.42 456.452.10 12.12 445.15
Winchester 2.11 12.23 449.472.30 12.32 452.50
North Gower 2.01 12.13 445.792.09 12.11 444.78
Huron FOB 2.40 12.52 460.122.20 12.22 448.82
Kent FOB 2.35 12.47 458.292.20 12.22 448.82
Lambton FOB 2.15 12.27 450.942.30 12.32 452.50
Middlesex FOB2.27 2.30 2.55 N/A 12.39 455.352.14 12.16 446.62
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.63 2.69 2.89 2.96 12.75 468.572.53 12.55 460.95
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 1.90 12.02 441.752.55 12.57 461.68
Toledo El. -0.33 9.79 359.65-0.41 9.60 352.87
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2853 down 0.0031
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
JUL16 HI 4.72 1/2 JUL16 HI 4.72 1/2
LOW 4.61 3/4 LOW 4.61 3/4
CLOSE 4.63 1/4 Down 8 CLOSE 4.63 1/4 Down 8
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
JUL16 HI 5.42 1/4 SEP16 HI 5.49
LOW 5.31 LOW 5.38 1/2
CLOSE 5.31 3/4 Down 9 1/4 CLOSE 5.39 Down 7 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.79 0.61 0.54 0.70
CAD $/bu 7.42 5.24 5.17 6.02
CAD $/tonne 272.80 192.46 190.10 221.05
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.25 N/A N/A 0.30 0.25 N/A
London 2.83 0.28 0.34 N/A 0.66 0.21 0.21 N/A
Hensall 2.70 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.25 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.15 N/A N/A N/A 0.15 N/A
Norwich 2.70 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.25 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.25 0.55 N/A N/A 0.25 0.25 0.28
Kent Bridge 2.70 N/A -0.15 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.25 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.30 0.30 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.30 0.50 0.55 N/A 0.25 0.30 0.55
Varna 2.70 0.35 0.50 N/A 0.60 0.35 0.30 N/A
Mitchell 2.70 0.25 0.55 N/A 0.65 0.25 0.25 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.22 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.53 0.47 0.63 N/A 0.46 0.54 0.69
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.30 N/A N/A N/A 0.25 0.80 0.95
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 3.13 N/A 1.13 N/A 1.84 N/A 1.13 N/A
Toledo El. 4.53US 5.83CA 4.53US 5.83CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.68 0.55 0.55 0.77
CAD $/bu 5.32 5.19 5.19 6.16
CAD $/tonne 195.30 190.57 190.57 226.37
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 505.75
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 180.00
--
Weekly Grain Market Commentary by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario.
Wednesday, May 4, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT July 3.77 ↓ 8 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 10.34 ↑ 6 cents
Wheat CBOT July 4.71 ↓ 12 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.41 ↓ 1 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.58 ↓ 18 cents
Chicago Oats July 1.95 ↓ 13 cents
Canadian $ June .7775 ↓ 1.51 points
CORN:
The July chart is looking healthier than we have seen in a quite a while. The two-year-old downtrend line on the weekly chart was violated the week of April 22 and we are now sitting in neutral territory with an upside bias. As long as our $3.50 support line holds on July contract, we should continue to challenge the highs of April 21 and hopefully close above there. As of May 4, I feel we have a better than average chance to work higher over the next few weeks and if we can close above the $4.07 area based on July, we will be set to challenge the next resistance of $4.40.
Currently, we have both the daily and weekly charts showing signs of life and the monthly chart displays an oversold condition that is capable of turning the trend if we continue to work higher with these positive signals. We are looking at a support level of $3.50 and overhead resistance of $4.10 based on the July Chicago futures. Short term indicators are positive, while the weekly indicators are neutral to bullish, but of course, the long term trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
Last week, we suggested a move above the recent highs of $10.46 to test the $10.60 resistance on the weekly chart. That worked quite nicely which challenged another major resistance line extending back two years on the weekly charts. We hit the mark and dropped almost immediately forming a hook reversal on our daily bar charts. From this area, I would expect more of a pullback to re-group before another assault on $10.60 resistance level. We could see the July contract trade back to the $9.80- $10 support level and possibly to the $9.50 area. The key here is that momentum in still on the upside and I feel we will at least attempt one more time to break through the $10.60 resistance. If we close above the $10.60 line, I would expect a swift move to the $11 area and possibly higher if the funds decide to get on board. The charts still see the soybeans in a long term down trend. While the short term indicators are slightly overbought, the weekly signals show good strength and potential for more upside.
WHEAT:
July wheat retreated on a cue from its counterparts. As we mentioned before, the July contract hit directly into the overhead resistance gap at $5 - $5.25 during the week of April 22 and has since retreated back to the $4.70 support level. From here we could possibly re-visit the major support levels of $4.40 - $4.50 once again. The way the wheat has been behaving suggests that it is following the lead of its counterparts. If the beans and corn move lower on this pullback, we would expect to see further weakness in the wheat.
At this point it is important to note that the indicators are mixed. It will take something significant to turn the wheat north of $5 in the coming weeks.
Support is seen at the $4.40 - $4.50 level while major resistance is still at the $5.20 - $5.40 level based on the July contract.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on May 4th 2016
SWW @ $201.33/MT ($5.48 bu), HRW @ $198.96/MT ($5.41/bu),
HRS @ $230.16/MT ($6.26/bu), SRW @ $196.60/MT ($5.35/bu).
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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