[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report Plus Marty Hibbs Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jul 20 16:21:03 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, July 20
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.304 up 0.0011
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
SEP16 HI 3.46 1/2 DEC16 HI 3.53 1/2
LOW 3.35 LOW 3.41 1/2
CLOSE3.37 1/2 Down 4 1/4 CLOSE 3.44 1/4 Down 4 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP16+DEC16+DEC16
CK Low 0.90 4.28 168.30 0.70 4.14 163.08
CK High 0.95 4.33 170.27 0.70 4.14 163.08
CK Avg 0.94 -0.07 4.32 169.94 0.70 -0.27 4.14 163.08
Essex Cty 0.95 4.33 170.27 0.70 4.14 163.08
Mdsx Low 0.95 4.33 170.27 0.70 4.14 163.08
Mdsx High 0.95 4.33 170.27 0.80 4.24 167.02
Mdsx Avg 0.95 -0.06 4.33 170.27 0.75 -0.23 4.19 165.05
Hensall 0.98 4.35 171.25 0.80 4.24 167.02
Bruce 0.95 4.33 170.27 0.80 4.24 167.02
Putnam 0.90 4.28 168.30 0.70 4.14 163.08
Burford 0.95 4.33 170.27 0.70 4.14 163.08
Port Perry 0.95 4.33 170.27 0.75 4.19 165.05
Norfolk 0.95 4.33 170.27 0.70 4.14 163.08
Palmerston 1.00 4.38 172.24 0.80 4.24 167.02
Varna 1.00 4.38 172.24 0.80 4.24 167.02
Trenton 0.95 4.33 170.27 0.80 4.24 167.02
Winchester 1.09 4.47 175.78 0.88 4.32 170.17
North Gower 0.94 4.32 169.87 0.90 4.34 170.96
Huron FOB 1.10 4.48 176.17 0.38 3.82 150.56
Kent FOB 1.10 4.48 176.17 0.70 4.14 163.08
Lamb FOB 1.10 4.48 176.17 0.70 4.14 163.08
Mdsx FOB 0.95 0.95 0.95N/A 4.33 170.27 0.70 4.14 163.08
FOB SW Que 1.38 4.76 187.20N/A
Track 1.38 4.76 187.20N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 1.25N/A 0.90 4.34 170.96
Sarn-Eth 1.25 1.30 1.30 0.90 4.63 182.08 0.90 4.34 170.96
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 4.39 172.93
London-Ing 1.37 1.44 1.46 1.51 4.75 186.80 1.13 4.57 180.01
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.57 1.66 1.68 1.03 4.47 176.07
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.40 1.03 4.47 176.07
W O Feed 1.46 4.84 190.50
US Rep 1.63 5.01 197.04
Toledo El. 0.07 3.44 135.44 -0.26 3.18 125.25
MID SD CRN 0.70 4.14 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.70 4.14 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.304 up 0.0011
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately lower.
AUG16 HI 10.56 1/4 NOV16 HI 10.38 1/2
LOW 10.25 LOW 10.04 1/2
CLOSE10.27 Down 17 CLOSE 10.09 Down 18 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +AUG1+NOV1+NOV16
CK Low 2.65 12.92 474.732.30 12.39 455.25
CK High 2.85 13.12 482.082.45 12.54 460.77
CK Average 2.75 -0.3013.02 478.402.39 -0.5312.48 458.38
Essex Cty 2.80 13.07 480.242.45 12.54 460.77
Mdsx Low 2.65 12.92 474.732.30 12.39 455.25
Mdsx High 2.73 13.00 477.672.39 12.48 458.56
Mdsx Average 2.69 -0.3412.96 476.202.35 -0.5612.44 456.91
Hensall 2.73 13.00 477.482.38 12.47 458.01
Bruce 2.65 12.92 474.732.50 12.59 462.60
Putnam 2.75 13.02 478.402.40 12.49 458.93
Burford 2.76 13.03 478.772.42 12.51 459.66
Port Perry 2.73 13.00 477.672.39 12.48 458.56
Norfolk 2.75 13.02 478.402.40 12.49 458.93
Palmerston 2.80 13.07 480.242.45 12.54 460.77
Varna 2.80 13.07 480.242.45 12.54 460.77
Trenton 2.85 13.12 482.082.50 12.59 462.60
Winchester N/A 2.36 12.45 457.46
North Gower 2.45 12.72 467.382.52 12.61 463.34
Huron FOB 2.90 13.17 483.912.55 12.64 464.44
Kent FOB 2.90 13.17 483.912.50 12.59 462.60
Lambton FOB 2.65 12.92 474.732.65 12.74 468.11
Middlesex FOB2.70 2.96 2.63 N/A 12.97 476.572.63 12.72 467.38
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.16 3.29 N/A 2.83 13.43 493.472.83 12.92 474.73
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 1.85 12.12 445.333.00 13.09 480.98
Toledo El. -0.14 10.13 372.08-0.42 9.67 355.40
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.304 up 0.0011
Chicago wheat closed slightly to moderately lower.
SEP16 HI 4.23 3/4 JUL17 HI 4.92
LOW 4.06 1/2 LOW 4.77 3/4
CLOSE 4.13 Down 5 CLOSE 4.82 Down 7 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
SEP16 HI 4.92 SEP17 HI 5.50 1/4
LOW 4.82 LOW 5.45 1/4
CLOSE 4.85 Down 3 CLOSE 5.47 1/2 Down 2 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.54 0.41 0.54 0.70
CAD $/bu 4.67 4.54 4.67 5.55
CAD $/tonne 171.72 166.92 171.72 203.85
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A 0.30 0.45 N/A N/A N/A 0.35 N/A
London 0.50 0.33 0.43 N/A 0.51 0.45 0.38 N/A
Hensall 0.50 N/A 0.45 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.40 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.50 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Norwich 0.50 N/A 0.45 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.40 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.40 0.45 0.40 N/A 0.35 0.50 0.35
Kent Bridge 0.50 N/A 0.45 N/A 0.60 N/A 0.40 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.30 0.45 N/A N/A N/A 0.35 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.45 0.45 0.55 N/A 0.50 0.55 0.55
Varna 0.70 0.50 0.50 N/A 0.55 0.50 0.45 N/A
Mitchell 0.50 0.25 0.45 N/A 0.60 0.35 0.40 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.43 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.42 0.55 0.69 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.75 0.75 0.45 N/A 0.60 0.65 0.45
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 1.52 N/A 1.26 N/A N/A N/A 1.47 N/A
Toledo El. 4.06US 5.30CA 4.62US 6.03CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.95 0.88 0.36
CAD $/bu 5.77 5.70 5.18
CAD $/tonne 211.94 209.54 190.36
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 548.30
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 225.00 - 235.00
--
Wednesday, July 20, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sep 3.37 ↓ 29 cents
Soybeans CBOT Aug 10.28 ↓ 1.00 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 4.13 ↓ 27 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 4.85 ↓ 17 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 4.07 ↓ 15 cents
Chicago Oats Sep 2.06 ↓ 4 cents
Canadian $ Sep .7662 ↓ .55 points
CORN: The day after last week’s commentary, we got our bounce to the $3.75 level on the September contract that we spoke of - but it lasted all of one day. As of July 20 we have violated the July 4, long weekend lows of $3.39 on the September contract and closed below there at $3.37. We have now set the stage for a possible test of major support at the $3 - $3.20 level. This $3 area on the futures has the distinction of being major support for the past 10 years going back to 2006. With just 20 more cents to that price zone, I feel there is a good chance we may visit this major support of $3 - $3.20 on the September contract. Since our red sell signal on June 22, we have dropped almost a full dollar in price on the September contract. Indicators are still negative but we are getting divergence in several of these indicators, suggesting that a bounce may be overdue. All indicators are still negative and the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS: Our $10.25 support level was tested on July 20 and so far it has held, closing just a little higher at $10.27. This of course is in-line with the other grains, as crop conditions improve and the chances of a weather market diminish each day that weather isn’t a serious issue. We are now entering a critical time for the soybean development in the mid-west and weather anomalies can cause wild fluctuations. The next obvious support is the big round $10 number which is within striking distance. This also represents a 60% retracement of the March 1 lows and the June 10 highs on the lead month contract. While major support is seen at $10, our overhead resistance is around the $10.75 with more trouble at the $11.50 area based on the September contract. Signals are still mixed, with weekly indicators still positive; while the short term is negative and the main trend continues to be down.
WHEAT: The September futures took out the July 4 long weekend lows of $4.15 and in the process made new contract lows for the September contract. This event violated a 10 year low before closing on the actual support line. There is not much to say here, except that the trend is and has been down for at least three years and until the main trend actually reverses, rallies have to be sold. From these levels we could see some upside; however, I feel it will be a slow grind higher as opposed to a typical reverse move. This bear market will take time to reverse a main trend from a technical basis.
Major support is seen at $4 on September, and all of the indicators remain negative but oversold. The main trend continues to be down.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on July 20, 2016
SWW @ $171.68/MT ($4.67/bu), HRW @ $166.88/MT ($4.54/bu),
HRS @ $203.81/MT ($5.55/bu), SRW @ $171.68/MT ($4.67/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
Click on this link: farmmarketnews-unsubscribe at list.gfo.ca to unsubscribe from this report.
This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: wheatcom.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 397855 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20160720/0423f1f7/attachment-0002.pdf>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: wheatcom.doc
Type: application/msword
Size: 385024 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20160720/0423f1f7/attachment-0001.doc>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: grain.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 265674 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20160720/0423f1f7/attachment-0003.pdf>
-------------- next part --------------
An embedded and charset-unspecified text was scrubbed...
Name: corn.txt
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20160720/0423f1f7/attachment-0001.txt>
More information about the Farmmarketnews
mailing list