[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report Plus Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Jul 14 15:30:21 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, July 14
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2915 down 0.0050
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
SEP16 HI 3.73 DEC16 HI 3.80
LOW 3.55 3/4 LOW 3.63
CLOSE3.57 3/4 Down 4 1/4 CLOSE 3.64 3/4 Down 5
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP16+DEC16+DEC16
CK Low 0.85 4.43 174.30 0.70 4.35 171.15
CK High 0.90 4.48 176.27 0.75 4.40 173.12
CK Avg 0.88 -0.12 4.46 175.62 0.71 -0.27 4.36 171.48
Essex Cty 0.85 4.43 174.30 0.70 4.35 171.15
Mdsx Low 0.90 4.48 176.27 0.70 4.35 171.15
Mdsx High 0.90 4.48 176.27 0.75 4.40 173.12
Mdsx Avg 0.90 -0.10 4.48 176.27 0.73 -0.25 4.37 172.14
Hensall 0.93 4.50 177.26 0.75 4.40 173.12
Bruce 0.90 4.48 176.27 0.75 4.40 173.12
Putnam 0.90 4.48 176.27 0.70 4.35 171.15
Burford 0.90 4.48 176.27 0.70 4.35 171.15
Port Perry 0.90 4.48 176.27 0.75 4.40 173.12
Norfolk 0.90 4.48 176.27 0.70 4.35 171.15
Palmerston 0.85 4.43 174.30 0.70 4.35 171.15
Varna 0.95 4.53 178.24 0.75 4.40 173.12
Trenton 0.85 4.43 174.30 0.75 4.40 173.12
Winchester 1.00 4.58 180.21 0.90 4.55 179.03
North Gower 0.92 4.50 177.06 0.90 4.55 179.03
Huron FOB 1.08 4.66 183.36 0.80 4.45 175.09
Kent FOB 1.05 4.63 182.18 0.70 4.35 171.15
Lamb FOB 1.10 4.68 184.15 0.70 4.35 171.15
Mdsx FOB 0.90 0.95N/A N/A 4.48 176.27 0.70 4.35 171.15
FOB SW Que 1.28 4.86 191.23N/A
Track 1.28 4.85 191.03N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 1.25N/A N/A
Sarn-Eth 1.25 1.30 1.30 0.90 4.83 190.05 0.90 4.55 179.03
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 4.60 181.00
London-Ing 1.37 1.44 1.46 1.51 4.95 194.77 0.97 4.62 181.78
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.57 1.66 1.68 1.03 4.68 184.15
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.40 1.03 4.68 184.15
W O Feed 1.40 4.98 196.03
US Rep 1.59 5.17 203.44
Toledo El. 0.06 3.64 143.38 -0.26 3.39 133.46
MID SD CRN 0.72 1/2 4.37 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.75 4.39 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2915 down 0.0050
Chicago soybeans closed moderately lower to lower.
AUG16 HI 11.41 NOV16 HI 11.23
LOW 10.79 1/2 LOW 10.59 1/4
CLOSE10.83 3/4 Down 39 CLOSE 10.62 1/4 Down 43
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +AUG1+NOV1+NOV16
CK Low 2.80 13.64 501.092.50 13.12 482.17
CK High 2.85 13.69 502.932.60 13.22 485.84
CK Average 2.83 -0.2313.67 502.262.54 -0.4013.16 483.52
Essex Cty 2.80 13.64 501.092.55 13.17 484.01
Mdsx Low 2.80 13.64 501.092.50 13.12 482.17
Mdsx High 2.83 13.67 502.192.50 13.12 482.17
Mdsx Average 2.82 -0.2413.65 501.642.50 -0.4313.12 482.17
Hensall 2.83 13.66 502.012.53 13.15 483.09
Bruce 2.80 13.64 501.092.50 13.12 482.17
Putnam 2.80 13.64 501.092.50 13.12 482.17
Burford 2.86 13.70 503.302.53 13.15 483.27
Port Perry 2.83 13.67 502.192.50 13.12 482.17
Norfolk 2.85 13.69 502.932.55 13.17 484.01
Palmerston 2.80 13.64 501.092.55 13.17 484.01
Varna 2.85 13.69 502.932.55 13.17 484.01
Trenton 2.69 13.53 497.052.50 13.12 482.17
Winchester N/A 2.50 13.12 482.17
North Gower 2.65 13.49 495.582.69 13.31 489.15
Huron FOB 3.00 13.84 508.442.65 13.27 487.68
Kent FOB 3.00 13.84 508.442.60 13.22 485.84
Lambton FOB 2.70 13.54 497.422.70 13.32 489.52
Middlesex FOB2.80 3.05 3.03 N/A 13.64 501.092.74 13.36 490.99
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.31 3.44 N/A 3.00 14.15 519.833.00 13.62 500.54
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 1.95 12.79 469.863.10 13.72 504.22
Toledo El. -0.14 10.70 393.00-0.41 10.21 375.17
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2915 down 0.0050
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
SEP16 HI 4.47 3/4 JUL17 HI 5.09 1/2
LOW 4.31 LOW 4.96 3/4
CLOSE 4.34 Down 5 3/4 CLOSE 5.00 1/2 Down 1 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
SEP16 HI 5.09 1/4 SEP17 HI 5.65
LOW 4.97 3/4 LOW 5.55 1/4
CLOSE 5.00 Down 2 1/2 CLOSE 5.57 1/2 Down 2 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.54 0.41 0.54 0.67
CAD $/bu 4.88 4.75 4.88 5.67
CAD $/tonne 179.45 174.71 179.45 208.33
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A 0.20 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.35 N/A
London 0.51 0.18 0.42 N/A 0.50 0.43 0.37 N/A
Hensall 0.50 N/A 0.35 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.40 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.30 N/A N/A N/A 0.46 N/A
Norwich 0.50 N/A 0.40 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.40 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.30 0.35 0.30 N/A 0.35 0.40 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.50 N/A 0.40 N/A 0.55 N/A 0.40 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.20 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.35 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.35 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.45 0.40 0.55 N/A 0.50 0.55 0.55
Varna 0.60 0.40 0.40 N/A 0.50 0.45 0.40 N/A
Mitchell 0.50 0.25 0.35 N/A 0.55 0.35 0.40 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.21 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.36 0.42 0.61 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.75 0.75 1.15 N/A 0.60 0.65 0.45
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 1.51 N/A 1.25 N/A N/A N/A 1.44 N/A
Toledo El. 4.27US 5.50CA 4.81US 6.19CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.93 0.86 0.35
CAD $/bu 5.93 5.87 5.35
CAD $/tonne 217.91 215.54 196.61
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 564.61
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 230.00
-----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for July 13, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, July 13, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sep 3.66 ↓ 22 cents
Soybeans CBOT Aug 11.28 ↑ 27 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 4.40 ↑ 12 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 5.02 ↑ 01 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 4.22 ↑ 07 cents
Chicago Oats Sep 2.10 ↑ 18 cents
Canadian $ Sep .7715 ↓ .10 points
CORN:
Prices ran sideways the week of July 11 as we found initial support at our $3.40 area on the September contract. The indicators are very oversold after the more than $1 drop in prices the past three weeks. Today is the last trading day for the July grain contracts and this may alleviate some downward pressure on the forward contracts. As I mentioned in June, the long weekend in July is usually full of surprises - including possible reversals in the markets. I know it’s early but so far the July 4 long weekend is in fact the low of the futures. This of course is not something we can trade off, it’s just an anomaly I’ve noticed in my years as a trader. More obvious is the looming $3.20 lows of 2014. With just 20 more cents, I feel there is still a chance we may visit this major support before a bottom is in place. It will be interesting to see if we do challenge that support. Either way, I feel the dog days of summer may in fact turn out to be a major bottom and we will see much higher prices in the years to come. This of course is this one man’s opinion but one I feel confident with putting out there. We are trading at $3.55 on the September as of July 13 and have begun our corrective bounce which could set us up for a 40% rise from the recent lows. This should put us back towards the $3.75 - $3.85 level on the September futures in the very near future. Indicators are in oversold territory but still negative and the main trend continues to be down.
SOYBEANS:
Soybeans fell to the $10.50 area on the August futures this week and rebounded quickly. Like the other grains, the beans are looking for direction in the form of weather forecasts. With July and August being critical development stages in the Mid-West, a prolonged dry forecast could send the soybeans back to the highs in short order, however, as time decays, and accommodating rains should appear, we will continue to see slippage in the prices going forward. Currently, we have good support at the $10.25 area and again at the big $10 number. With oversold futures, prices should remain firm for the month of July but our charts show stiff resistance at the $11.60 through $12 area. Signals are currently mixed, with pressure on the short term indicators, but the longer term indicators are still neutral to bullish.
WHEAT:
Futures prices are experiencing lows that have not been seen since 2010 and before that 2007. Needless to say, the bear market has taken its toll on prices and proves only that once intact, a trend needs significant intervention to turn the corner. When this will happen will be anyone’s guess, but it serves as a lesson to us all that the trend is your friend and trading against it can be detrimental. Having said that, there comes a time when prices will reverse and this market is no exception. Looking hard at the charts for hints of such a turn, we find only a few that could change the tone of the market. One is that we are approaching 10 year lows on the futures contracts, second is the severity at which the wheat market has sold off recently. These are a few earmarks of a possible bottoming action. Finally a combination of the July contract expiry and continued hot and dry weather could reverse things quite quickly. Meanwhile, we still have our July 4 long weekend hook reversal intact, so for the moment we do have a temporary bottom. Major support is seen at $3. - $3.20 on September and the indicators remain negative but oversold. The main trend continues to be down.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on July 13, 2016
SWW @ $183.44/MT ($4.99/bu), HRW @ $178.67/MT ($4.86/bu),
HRS @ $210.83/MT ($5.74/bu), SRW @ $181.05/MT ($4.93/bu).
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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