[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jul 6 15:38:49 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, July 6
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3005 up 0.0056
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.
SEP16 HI 3.52 1/2 DEC16 HI 3.59 1/4
LOW 3.39 LOW 3.46
CLOSE3.41 1/2 Down 9 1/4 CLOSE 3.48 1/4 Down 9 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP16+DEC16+DEC16
CK Low 0.80 4.22 165.94 0.70 4.18 164.66
CK High 0.85 4.27 167.91 0.70 4.18 164.66
CK Avg 0.81 -0.16 4.22 166.27 0.70 -0.25 4.18 164.66
Essex Cty 0.85 4.27 167.91 0.70 4.18 164.66
Mdsx Low 0.80 4.22 165.94 0.70 4.18 164.66
Mdsx High 0.80 4.22 165.94 0.70 4.18 164.66
Mdsx Avg 0.80 -0.16 4.22 165.94 0.70 -0.25 4.18 164.66
Hensall 0.80 4.22 165.94 0.73 4.21 165.64
Bruce 0.80 4.22 165.94 0.70 4.18 164.66
Putnam 0.80 4.22 165.94 0.70 4.18 164.66
Burford 0.80 4.22 165.94 0.70 4.18 164.66
Port Perry 0.80 4.22 165.94 0.70 4.18 164.66
Norfolk 0.80 4.22 165.94 0.70 4.18 164.66
Palmerston 0.85 4.27 167.91 0.70 4.18 164.66
Varna 0.80 4.22 165.94 0.75 4.23 166.63
Trenton 0.80 4.22 165.94 0.70 4.18 164.66
Winchester 1.00 4.42 173.81 0.95 4.43 174.50
North Gower 0.86 4.28 168.30 0.90 4.38 172.53
Huron FOB 1.00 4.42 173.81 0.80 4.28 168.59
Kent FOB 0.93 4.35 171.06 0.70 4.18 164.66
Lamb FOB 0.90 4.32 169.87 0.70 4.18 164.66
Mdsx FOB 0.90 0.90N/A N/A 4.32 169.87 0.70 4.18 164.66
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.23 4.64 182.67N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 1.10N/A N/A
Sarn-Eth 1.10 1.15 0.90N/A 4.52 177.75N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 4.43 174.50
London-Ing 1.20 1.25 1.28 1.30 4.62 181.68 0.92 4.40 173.32
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.37 1.40N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.43 0.96 4.44 174.89
W O Feed 1.33 4.75 186.80
US Rep 1.48 4.90 192.71
Toledo El. -0.04 3.38 132.91 -0.26 3.22 126.90
MID SD CRN 0.70 4.18 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.70 4.18 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3005 up 0.0056
Chicago soybeans closed mixed.
AUG16 HI 11.14 1/4 NOV16 HI 10.81 1/2
LOW 10.63 LOW 10.40 1/2
CLOSE11.01 1/2 Down 8 1/2 CLOSE 10.73 1/4 Down 4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +AUG1+AUG1+NOV16
CK Low 2.60 13.62 500.272.40 13.13 482.54
CK High 2.77 13.79 506.512.50 13.23 486.21
CK Average 2.66 -0.4613.68 502.532.45 -0.5513.18 484.37
Essex Cty 2.65 13.67 502.102.45 13.18 484.37
Mdsx Low 2.60 13.62 500.272.40 13.13 482.54
Mdsx High 2.63 13.65 501.372.43 13.16 483.64
Mdsx Average 2.62 -0.4913.63 500.822.42 -0.5813.15 483.09
Hensall 2.63 13.64 501.182.45 13.18 484.37
Bruce 2.60 13.62 500.272.40 13.13 482.54
Putnam 2.60 13.62 500.272.55 13.28 488.05
Burford 2.66 13.68 502.472.46 13.19 484.74
Port Perry 2.63 13.65 501.372.43 13.16 483.64
Norfolk 2.65 13.67 502.102.45 13.18 484.37
Palmerston 2.65 13.67 502.102.45 13.18 484.37
Varna 2.65 13.67 502.102.50 13.23 486.21
Trenton 2.62 13.64 501.002.35 13.08 480.70
Winchester 2.62 13.64 501.002.57 13.30 488.78
North Gower 2.51 13.53 496.962.56 13.29 488.42
Huron FOB 2.80 13.82 507.612.60 13.33 489.89
Kent FOB 2.75 13.77 505.782.55 13.28 488.05
Lambton FOB 2.75 13.77 505.782.75 13.48 495.40
Middlesex FOB2.80 3.12 N/A 2.62 13.82 507.612.62 13.35 490.62
PROCESSORS
Hamilton N/A 3.34 N/A 2.91 2.91 13.64 501.28
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 1.75 12.77 469.033.05 13.78 506.42
Toledo El. -0.14 10.87 399.50-0.41 10.32 379.13
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3005 up 0.0056
Chicago wheat closed slightly to moderately lower.
SEP16 HI 4.34 JUL17 HI 4.91 3/4
LOW 4.21 LOW 4.79
CLOSE 4.28 1/2 Down 5 CLOSE 4.86 Down 6 1/4
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
SEP16 HI 5.09 SEP17 HI 5.60
LOW 4.96 1/2 LOW 5.54
CLOSE 5.02 Down 6 1/4 CLOSE 5.59 Down 6 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.55 0.42 0.49 0.71
CAD $/bu 4.84 4.71 4.77 5.73
CAD $/tonne 177.79 173.03 175.41 210.40
Direct MarkHarvest 2016 Harvest 2017
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A 0.12 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
London 0.37 0.18 0.31 N/A 0.48 0.42 0.35 N/A
Hensall 0.45 N/A 0.20 N/A 0.50 N/A 0.30 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.15 N/A N/A N/A 0.18 N/A
Norwich 0.45 N/A 0.20 N/A 0.50 N/A 0.30 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.25 0.35 0.40 N/A 0.35 0.40 N/A
Kent Bridge 0.45 N/A 0.20 N/A 0.50 N/A 0.30 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.12 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.45 0.40 1.00 N/A 0.50 0.60 N/A
Varna 0.45 0.25 0.25 N/A 0.45 0.40 0.35 N/A
Mitchell 0.45 0.10 0.20 N/A 0.50 0.35 0.30 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.29 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.20 0.41 0.64 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.75 0.75 1.25 N/A 0.60 0.65 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 1.53 N/A 1.20 N/A N/A N/A 1.43 N/A
Toledo El. 4.22US 5.46CA 4.66US 6.03CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.91 0.85 0.33
CAD $/bu 5.77 5.71 5.19
CAD $/tonne 212.19 209.81 190.78
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 575.86
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 230.00 - 235.00
------
Weekly Ontario Grain Market Commentary by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, July 6, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sep 3.42 ↓ 36 cents
Soybeans CBOT Aug 11.01 ↓ 39 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 4.28 ↓ 17 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 5.02 ↓ 04 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 4.15 ↓ 05 cents
Chicago Oats Sep 1.92 ↓ 09 cents
Canadian $ Sep .7720 ↑ .20 points
CORN:
Prices continued lower again this week after receiving a red sell signal last week, losing another 40 cents per bushel on the September contract as we approached another important support level of $3.40. The $1 drop since June 17 was severe and emphasized how dire the supply situation will be if this year’s crop is bountiful. The July 5 report showed the corn rating at 75 per cent good to excellent. Looking forward from the technical point of view, we have a two year old support line at $3.20, and below that we have the 10 year old support line at $3.
Indicators are still negative and the main trend continues to be down.
SOYBEANS:
Beans hit our stiff resistance level of $11.80 as mentioned in our last commentary and backed off from their overbought condition. The July 5 grain update showed 70 per cent of the US bean crop rated good to excellent. This put more pressure on the futures and led them towards our $10.75 support line. August is a critical time for the mid-west crop and there could still be a weather threat causing a possible rally the beans back towards the June 10 top of $12. For the time being, this correction is orderly with minor support at $10.75 on the September contract, and more significant support at $10.25, a 50 per cent retracement from the March 2016 to June 2016 range. Unlike corn and wheat, the soybean trend is still positive and we are in a correction. Short term indicators remain neutral to bullish, while the long term trend has turned neutral.
WHEAT:
Wheat continued its downward slide this week and found support at the sloping trend line that cut across the $4.15 level on the September contract. The good news is that we ended the day with a hook reversal on the lead month contract. This plus the fact that we have dropped more than $1 per bushel since June 8 suggests an oversold condition, and the faster prices sink, the more violent the correction should be. Our Red Sell signal on June 22 has now seen a 44 cent drop since the signal was received. All indicators remain negative but it is worth noting that the short term indicators are oversold. The next main support is seen at $4 on September futures. All indicators remain negative and the main trend continues to be down.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on July 6, 2016
SWW @ $177.53/MT ($4.83/bu), HRW @ $172.77/MT ($4.70/bu),
HRS @ $210.37/MT ($5.73/bu), SRW @ $175.15/MT ($4.77/bu).
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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