[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jan 20 15:33:55 EST 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, January 20
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.4589 up 0.0075
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
MAR16 HI 3.69 1/4 DEC16 HI 3.91 1/2
LOW 3.65 1/4 LOW 3.87 1/2
CLOSE3.68 3/4 Up 1 CLOSE 3.90 1/2 Up 1
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR16+MAY16+MAY16
CK Low 1.05 4.74 186.51 1.00 4.91 193.10
CK High 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.05 4.96 195.07
CK Avg 1.09 -0.57 4.78 188.15 1.03 -0.73 4.94 194.41
Essex Cty 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.00 4.91 193.10
Mdsx Low 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.05 4.96 195.07
Mdsx High 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.05 4.96 195.07
Mdsx Avg 1.10 -0.57 4.79 188.48 1.05 -0.71 4.96 195.07
Hensall 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.05 4.96 195.07
Bruce 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.05 4.96 195.07
Putnam 1.05 4.74 186.51 1.05 4.96 195.07
Burford 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.05 4.96 195.07
Port Perry 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.05 4.96 195.07
Norfolk 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.05 4.96 195.07
Palmerston 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.00 4.91 193.10
Varna 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.05 4.96 195.07
Trenton 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.00 4.91 193.10
Winchester 1.15 4.84 190.44 1.10 5.01 197.04
North Gower 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.18 5.09 200.19
Huron FOB 1.30 4.99 196.35 1.10 5.01 197.04
Kent FOB 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.05 4.96 195.07
Lamb FOB 1.10 4.79 188.48 1.05 4.96 195.07
Mdsx FOB 1.10 1.15 1.15N/A 4.79 188.48 1.05 4.96 195.07
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.53 5.21 205.21N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 1.45N/A 1.10 5.01 197.04
Sarn-Eth N/A 1.50 1.50N/A N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.20 5.11 200.97
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A 1.45 1.50 N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.55 1.20 5.11 200.97
W O Feed 1.63 0.96 5.32 209.34
US Rep 2.05 1.38 5.74 225.88
Toledo El. 0.13 3.82 150.31 -0.33 3.57 140.59
MID SD CRN 1.07 1/2 4.76 1/4
HI SD CRN 1.10 4.78 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.4589 up 0.0075
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
MAR16 HI 8.83 3/4 NOV16 HI 8.88 1/4
LOW 8.70 1/2 LOW 8.79 1/4
CLOSE8.74 Down 9 1/2 CLOSE 8.82 1/4 Down 6 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR1+MAR1+MAY16
CK Low 3.30 12.04 442.393.05 11.87 436.24
CK High 3.35 12.09 444.233.20 12.02 441.75
CK Average 3.34 -0.6112.08 443.743.14 -0.8411.96 439.49
Essex Cty 3.35 12.09 444.233.15 11.97 439.91
Mdsx Low 3.30 12.04 442.393.11 11.93 438.44
Mdsx High 3.35 12.09 444.233.15 11.97 439.91
Mdsx Average 3.33 -0.6212.07 443.313.13 -0.8511.95 439.18
Hensall 3.38 12.12 445.153.18 12.00 440.83
Bruce 3.35 12.09 444.233.15 11.97 439.91
Putnam 3.25 11.99 440.563.05 11.87 436.24
Burford 3.33 12.07 443.503.14 11.96 439.55
Port Perry 3.27 12.01 441.293.08 11.90 437.34
Norfolk 3.40 12.14 446.073.20 12.02 441.75
Palmerston 3.20 11.94 438.723.10 11.92 438.08
Varna 3.40 12.14 446.073.20 12.02 441.75
Trenton 3.35 12.09 444.233.10 11.92 438.08
Winchester 3.52 12.26 450.483.20 12.02 441.75
North Gower 3.30 12.04 442.393.30 12.12 445.43
Huron FOB 3.55 12.29 451.583.30 12.12 445.43
Kent FOB 3.35 12.09 444.233.20 12.02 441.75
Lambton FOB 3.35 12.09 444.233.20 12.02 441.75
Middlesex FOB3.49 3.49 N/A N/A 12.23 449.383.28 12.10 444.69
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.87 3.87 3.94 4.02 12.61 463.343.66 12.48 458.65
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 2.95 11.69 429.533.55 12.37 454.61
Toledo El. -0.30 8.44 309.94-0.41 8.42 309.24
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.4589 up 0.0075
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
MAR16 HI 4.75 1/2 JUL16 HI 4.86 1/4
LOW 4.67 1/4 LOW 4.78
CLOSE 4.71 1/2 Down 3 CLOSE 4.81 1/4 Down 3 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
MAR16 HI 4.98 SEP16 HI 5.19 3/4
LOW 4.92 1/4 LOW 5.15 1/4
CLOSE 4.94 3/4 Down 1 1/2 CLOSE 5.15 1/2 Down 3 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 4.16 1.55 1.55 1.22
CAD $/bu 8.88 6.26 6.26 6.17
CAD $/tonne 326.15 230.15 230.15 226.55
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.30 N/A N/A 0.90 0.85 N/A
London 3.91 1.14 1.36 N/A 1.41 1.05 0.83 N/A
Hensall 3.60 N/A 1.50 N/A 1.30 N/A 0.85 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.85 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 1.30 N/A N/A N/A 1.00 N/A
Norwich 3.60 N/A 1.50 N/A 1.40 N/A 0.85 N/A
Port Hope N/A 1.50 1.50 1.40 N/A 1.00 0.85 1.20
Kent Bridge 3.60 N/A 0.80 N/A 1.40 N/A 0.85 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.95 0.85 N/A N/A 0.90 0.80 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.85 N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.90 1.20 0.70 N/A 0.85 0.85 0.60
Varna 3.60 1.00 1.55 N/A 1.30 0.90 0.95 N/A
Mitchell 3.60 0.90 1.50 N/A 1.30 0.90 0.85 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.99 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.48 1.48 1.15 N/A 1.52 1.16 1.39
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.48 0.48 1.00 N/A 1.15 1.40 1.35
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 5.03 N/A 2.49 N/A 3.26 N/A 2.17 N/A
Toledo El. 4.89US 7.09CA 4.78US 6.94CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.37 1.37 1.23 1.46
CAD $/bu 6.19 6.19 6.04 6.61
CAD $/tonne 227.28 227.28 221.95 242.88
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 270.00
Bayport Oats 265.00
Bayport Barley 270.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 464.96
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 230.00
--------
Weekly Grain Market Commentary by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, January 20, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Mar 3.69 ↑ 12 cents
Soybeans CBOT Mar 8.74 ↓ 01 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 4.71 ↓ 10 cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 4.95 ↓ 12 cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 4.67 ↓ 13 cents
Chicago Oats Mar 2.05 ↓ 01 cents
Canadian $ Mar .6885 ↓ 1.25 points
CORN:
On the charts: The $3.50 support on the March contract continues to hold, and it looks like the January 4 low could now be supportive enough to allow us to challenge the upside resistance levels in the coming weeks. Initially, we see resistance at the $3.75-3.80 range, and again at the important $4 level. We have a buy signal this week on the daily indicator, but I must stress that this is only a short term cycle, and even though the weekly indicators are in an oversold condition, we have a lot of work to do to turn this market back into a bull market. The first step may just have been implemented, as long as we continue to close above the $3.50 level on the March contract. Major support is seen at $3.45-$3.50, and again at $3.20. Overhead resistance stands at $3.80 and again at $4. All indicators are negative and the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
On the charts: The March bean contract is now the lead month, as the January contract expired last week. Although we have a short term buy signal on the daily charts, I view it as a bear market rally. The real significance of the technical indicators on the soybeans, are seen clearly on the weekly and monthly charts. These charts show a deeply entrenched down-trend that needs to find support on the March contract at the $8.50 level in the coming months or risk considerable downside. The monthly chart is especially troubling as it shows neutral conditions in the oversold indicators even though we have dropped more than $9 per bushel since the highs of 2012. If the $8.40-8.50 level fails to find support on any close, our next major support is around the $7.50 price levels, according to our charts. Of course, we are referring to the technical aspects of this market only, which assumes that market fundamentals will not challenge the status quo.
Our main support continues to hold at the $8.40-$8.50 level on the March contract while our overhead headwinds are $9, $9.25 and again at $9.50. The trend is still down.
WHEAT:
On the charts: Wheat continues to track sideways with neutral short term indicators. The four challenges of the $4.50 base that we established over the past four months have set a confident tone to the wheat charts. If we can stay above the $4.50 level on the lead month futures, we should see a spring rally. Solid support is seen at the $4.40-$4.50 level on March charts, while overhead resistance is at $5 and $5.25 on the lead month. Both the medium and long term trends remain down.
Grain Farmers of Ontario is offering another series of marketing seminars across Ontario. This time we have been focusing on “Options” on Futures. The dates that are still available include,
(Belleville, January 26 ;) (Avonmore, January 27 ;) (Stratford, February 10 ;) (London, February 11 ;) and (Brantford, February 25). All other dates have either been completed or are full.
If you would like to attend, go online at www.gfo.ca/seminars; phone Marty Hibbs at 519-767-4123; or email mhibbs at gfo.ca. Seminars are limited to 25 participants per location.
HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES AS CLOSE ON January 20, 2016
SWW @ $227.42/MT ($6.19/bu), HRW @ $227.42/MT ($6.19/bu),
HRS @ $243.17/MT ($6.62/bu), SRW @ $222.08/MT ($6.04/bu).
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
Click on this link: farmmarketnews-unsubscribe at list.gfo.ca to unsubscribe from this report.
This Farm Market News product is sponsored by:
Grain Farmers of Ontario
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