[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly Grain Market Commentary from GFO

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Aug 18 15:41:33 EDT 2016


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, August 18
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2775 down 0.0110
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.

      SEP16   HI 3.33                         DEC16    HI 3.43
             LOW 3.26  1/2                            LOW 3.36  1/4
            CLOSE3.32   Up 1 3/4                    CLOSE 3.42   Up 2 1/4

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +DEC16+DEC16+DEC16
CK Low       1.15                        4.47 175.98  0.85         4.27 168.10
CK High      1.15                        4.47 175.98  0.85         4.27 168.10
CK Avg       1.15                   0.18 4.47 175.98  0.85 -0.07   4.27 168.10
Essex Cty    1.15                        4.47 175.98  0.85         4.27 168.10
Mdsx Low     1.15                        4.47 175.98  0.85         4.27 168.10
Mdsx High    1.15                        4.47 175.98  0.85         4.27 168.10
Mdsx Avg     1.15                   0.18 4.47 175.98  0.85 -0.07   4.27 168.10
Hensall      1.15                        4.47 175.98  0.88         4.30 169.09
Bruce        1.15                        4.47 175.98  0.85         4.27 168.10
Putnam       1.15                        4.47 175.98  0.85         4.27 168.10
Burford      1.15                        4.47 175.98  0.85         4.27 168.10
Port Perry   1.15                        4.47 175.98  0.85         4.27 168.10
Norfolk      1.15                        4.47 175.98  0.90         4.32 170.07
Palmerston   1.15                        4.47 175.98  0.85         4.27 168.10
Varna        1.15                        4.47 175.98  0.90         4.32 170.07
Trenton      1.20                        4.52 177.94  0.85         4.27 168.10
Winchester   1.25                        4.57 179.91  1.10         4.52 177.94
North Gower  1.27                        4.59 180.70  0.98         4.40 173.22
Huron FOB    1.30                        4.62 181.88  0.90         4.32 170.07
Kent FOB     1.30                        4.62 181.88  0.85         4.27 168.10
Lamb FOB     1.30                        4.62 181.88  0.85         4.27 168.10
Mdsx FOB     1.25N/A   N/A   N/A         4.57 179.91  0.85         4.27 168.10
FOB SW Que   1.74                        5.06 199.20N/A
Track        1.63                        4.95 194.68N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A    1.45N/A     1.00                   1.00         4.42 174.01
Sarn-Eth     1.50  1.50  1.15N/A         4.82 189.76  1.15         4.57 179.91
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
London-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.59  0.97                   0.97         4.39 172.83
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.35  1.15                   1.15         4.57 179.91
W O Feed     1.73                        5.05 198.81

US Rep       1.77                        5.09 200.38
Toledo El.   0.09                        3.41 134.22 -0.26         3.16 124.60


MID SD CRN                                            0.85         4.271
HI SD CRN                                             0.85         4.271
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2775 down 0.0110
Chicago soybeans closed narrowly mixed.

       NOV16   HI 10.17  1/2          NOV16    HI 10.17  1/2
              LOW 9.96  1/4                   LOW 9.96  1/4
             CLOSE10.14  1/2  Down 1 1/2    CLOSE 10.14  1/2  Down 1 1/2

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +NOV1+NOV1+NOV16
CK Low       2.74                     12.89 473.442.35      12.50 459.11
CK High      2.85                     13.00 477.482.45      12.60 462.79
CK Average   2.80                -0.0112.94 475.592.40 -0.3112.55 461.01
Essex Cty    2.85                     13.00 477.482.35      12.50 459.11
Mdsx Low     2.72                     12.87 472.712.39      12.54 460.58
Mdsx High    2.80                     12.95 475.652.40      12.55 460.95
Mdsx Average 2.76                -0.0412.91 474.182.40 -0.3112.54 460.77
Hensall      2.83                     12.97 476.572.40      12.55 460.95
Bruce        2.80                     12.95 475.652.40      12.55 460.95
Putnam       2.80                     12.95 475.652.30      12.45 457.28
Burford      2.75                     12.90 473.812.42      12.57 461.68
Port Perry   2.72                     12.87 472.712.39      12.54 460.58
Norfolk      2.80                     12.95 475.652.40      12.55 460.95
Palmerston   2.85                     13.00 477.482.35      12.50 459.11
Varna        2.85                     13.00 477.482.40      12.55 460.95
Trenton       N/A                                 2.60      12.75 468.30
Winchester    N/A                                 2.60      12.75 468.30
North Gower   N/A                                 2.49      12.64 464.26
Huron FOB    2.95                     13.10 481.162.50      12.65 464.62
Kent FOB     2.95                     13.10 481.162.45      12.60 462.79
Lambton FOB  3.10                     13.25 486.672.55      12.70 466.46
Middlesex FOB2.96  N/A  N/A 2.56      13.11 481.532.49      12.64 464.26

PROCESSORS
Hamilton     3.35 3.35 2.82 2.90      13.50 495.862.82      12.97 476.38
Windsor       N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A                   N/A
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Prescott     2.00                     12.15 446.252.85      13.00 477.48

Toledo El.   0.06                     10.21 375.11-0.41      9.74 357.77


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2775 down 0.0110
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
SEP16      HI         4.28              JUL17   HI      4.83  1/2
           LOW        4.20                      LOW     4.78  1/2
           CLOSE  4.27   Up 1                   CLOSE   4.83   Up 1 1/4

Minni wheat closed mixed.
SEP16      HI         5.29              SEP17   HI         5.60
           LOW    5.22  1/4                     LOW        5.58
           CLOSE  5.27  3/4  Up 3 1/2           CLOSE   5.58  1/2  Down  1/4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.48          0.35            0.67          0.44
CAD $/bu              4.75          4.62            4.94          5.72
CAD $/tonne         174.52        169.83          181.56        210.06


Direct MarkHarvest 2016                 Harvest 2017
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    0.35   0.35    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.40    N/A
London      0.41    0.24   0.37    N/A    0.45    0.32   0.39    N/A
Hensall     0.35    N/A    0.30    N/A    0.55    N/A    0.40    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A    0.50    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.45    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A    0.35    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.30    N/A
Norwich     0.35    N/A    0.30    N/A    0.55    N/A    0.40    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    0.50   0.40   0.50    N/A     0.35   0.45    N/A
Kent Bridge 0.35    N/A    0.30    N/A    0.55    N/A    0.40    N/A
Chatham      N/A    0.30   0.35    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.40    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.35    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.40    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    0.30   0.35   0.35    N/A     0.40   0.45   0.50
Varna       0.40    0.30   0.35    N/A    0.50    0.40   0.40    N/A
Mitchell    0.35    0.30   0.30    N/A    0.55    0.35   0.40    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.11    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    0.38   0.70   0.47    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

TERMINAL
Prescott     N/A    0.60   0.80   0.40    N/A     0.60   0.65   0.45

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM    N/A    N/A    1.18    N/A    N/A     N/A    1.33    N/A

Toledo El. 4.20US         5.36CA        4.63US          5.90CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 17        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.69          0.63            0.37
CAD $/bu              5.52          5.46            5.20
CAD $/tonne         202.88        200.54          191.17

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal             520.74
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      170.00 - 180.00

-----
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for August 17, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario


Wednesday, August 17, 2016 Closing Prices

COMMODITY

PERIOD

PRICE

WEEKLY MOVEMENT

Corn CBOT

Sep

3.30

↑

         08

cents

Soybeans CBOT

Sep

10.30

↑

 32

cents

Wheat CBOT

Sep

4.26

↑

04

cents

Wheat Minn.

Sep

5.24

↑

23

cents

Wheat Kansas

Sep

4.18

↑

06

cents

Chicago Oats

Sep

1.71

↓

01

cents













Canadian $

Sep

.7800

↑

1.25

points


CORN:  Following the August 12 United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, corn behaved as expected from our last commentary. There was an immediate selloff in the grains after the release, and once most of the stops were eliminated, the futures contracts reversed course and closed higher on the day. In technical terms this is called a hook reversal, and it indicates that we could see higher prices in the immediate future. It does not, however, tell us how high or for how long. My guess is that we could see prices move higher until there is an update to the current supply demand or a yield adjustment.  Our first upside target would be a rash of overhead barriers from $3.40-$3.60 on the September contract or $3.50-$3.70 on the December contract.  Next week, we will begin to use the December futures for analysis on both corn and wheat. We have a weak buy signal on the corn, but it should be used only as an indicator of short term upside potential at this point. All other indicators are still negative, and the main trend is still down but oversold.
SOYBEANS: Soybeans continue to find good support at the $9.75 level as suggested last week and as witnessed by the selloff on the release of the USDA report on August 12. After the initial selloff of 25 cents per bushel, the September contract closed out the day basically unchanged. This is an example of the stop running that we referred to last week. From these levels we could see some continued upside movement in the near term.  Going forward, our initial headwinds on the September contract is found at the $10.30- $10.50 level on the futures. Our indicators are oversold. Signals are still mixed, but the main trend is still down.
WHEAT:  The August 12 USDA report performed as expected with the wheat futures contract trading down 10 cents per bushel to $4.06 on the release of the data, before closing out the trading session up 7 cents for the day. This produced a signal that could generate more upside in the near term. We are currently trading at $4.27 as of this writing on August 17. Our overhead resistance now stands at $4.30-$4.40. The Minneapolis futures contract is currently leading the charge with a 40 cent move since its August 2 bottom. Even if we haven’t seen the bottom in the wheat market, there is evidence that we could be getting close. We did receive a minor buy signal on both the daily and weekly charts, but it is not strong enough to conclude that a bottom is in place. We will monitor the signals going forward and hope to see a signal worth getting excited about. Good support is still seen at $4 on close based on the September contract. Next week, we will switch to the December contract for analysis. The indicators are now mixed with short term indications turning positive, while the main trend is still down.

-------
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500<callto:519-674-1500> x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530<callto:519-674-1530>

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