[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Apr 28 15:41:18 EDT 2016


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, April 28
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2544 down 0.0091
Chicago corn closed slightly to moderately higher.

      MAY16   HI 3.90  3/4                    DEC16    HI 3.97  3/4
             LOW 3.78  3/4                            LOW 3.87  1/4
            CLOSE3.87   Up 6 1/4                    CLOSE 3.94  1/2  Up 4

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt U.S. $/bu   $/mt Cntrct U.S.   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +JUL16+JUL16+SEP16
CK Low       0.64                        4.51 177.55  0.50         4.45 174.99
CK High      0.74                        4.61 181.49  0.55         4.50 176.96
CK Avg       0.66                  -0.26 4.53 178.40  0.51 -0.39   4.45 175.32
Essex Cty    0.65                        4.52 177.94  0.50         4.45 174.99
Mdsx Low     0.65                        4.52 177.94  0.50         4.45 174.99
Mdsx High    0.69                        4.56 179.52  0.50         4.45 174.99
Mdsx Avg     0.67                  -0.25 4.54 178.73  0.50 -0.40   4.45 174.99
Hensall      0.66                        4.53 178.14  0.51         4.46 175.39
Bruce        0.60                        4.47 175.98  0.50         4.45 174.99
Putnam       0.65                        4.52 177.94  0.50         4.45 174.99
Burford      0.65                        4.52 177.94  0.50         4.45 174.99
Port Perry   0.65                        4.52 177.94  0.50         4.45 174.99
Norfolk      0.65                        4.52 177.94  0.50         4.45 174.99
Palmerston   0.65                        4.52 177.94  0.50         4.45 174.99
Varna        0.69                        4.56 179.52  0.55         4.50 176.96
Trenton      0.79                        4.66 183.46  0.65         4.60 180.90
Winchester   0.89                        4.76 187.39  0.85         4.80 188.77
North Gower  0.79                        4.66 183.46  0.75         4.70 184.83
Huron FOB    0.79                        4.66 183.46  0.55         4.50 176.96
Kent FOB     0.80                        4.67 183.85  0.60         4.55 178.93
Lamb FOB     0.70                        4.57 179.91  0.60         4.55 178.93
Mdsx FOB     0.70  0.70N/A   N/A         4.57 179.91  0.55         4.50 176.96
FOB SW Que   1.03                        4.90 192.90N/A
Track        1.12                        4.99 196.45N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A    1.00  1.00  1.05                   0.80         4.75 186.80
Sarn-Eth     1.00  1.05  1.05  1.10      4.87 191.72N/A
Kawartha    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      0.95         4.90 192.71
London-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      0.92         4.87 191.53
Pt.Colb-Ing  1.15  1.20N/A     1.25      5.02 197.63N/A
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      1.00         4.95 194.68
W O Feed     1.20                        5.07 199.75

US Rep       1.31                        5.18 203.93
Toledo El.   0.05                        3.92 154.33 -0.25         3.69 145.44


MID SD CRN   0.69                        4.56         0.52   1/2   4.47
HI SD CRN    0.74                        4.61         0.55         4.49 1/2
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2544 down 0.0091
Chicago soybeans closed mixed.

       JUL16   HI 10.46  1/4          NOV16    HI 10.19
              LOW 10.18                       LOW 9.94  3/4
             CLOSE10.27  1/2  Down 1        CLOSE 10.08  1/2  Up 5

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt U.S.  $/bu  $/mt BasisU.S.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +JUL1+JUL1+JUL16
CK Low       1.91                     12.19 447.721.80      11.89 436.70
CK High      2.00                     12.28 451.031.85      11.94 438.54
CK Average   1.97                -0.5112.24 449.741.84 -0.5711.93 438.17
Essex Cty    1.96                     12.24 449.561.85      11.94 438.54
Mdsx Low     1.95                     12.23 449.191.80      11.89 436.70
Mdsx High    1.96                     12.24 449.561.82      11.91 437.43
Mdsx Average 1.96                -0.5212.23 449.381.81 -0.6011.90 437.07
Hensall      1.95                     12.23 449.191.80      11.89 436.70
Bruce        1.86                     12.14 445.881.80      11.89 436.70
Putnam       1.91                     12.19 447.721.85      11.94 438.54
Burford      1.99                     12.27 450.661.85      11.94 438.54
Port Perry   1.96                     12.24 449.561.82      11.91 437.43
Norfolk      1.95                     12.23 449.191.85      11.94 438.54
Palmerston   1.91                     12.19 447.721.80      11.89 436.70
Varna        1.95                     12.23 449.191.80      11.89 436.70
Trenton      1.95                     12.23 449.191.80      11.89 436.70
Winchester   2.12                     12.40 455.442.08      12.17 446.99
North Gower  2.02                     12.30 451.762.08      12.17 446.99
Huron FOB    2.05                     12.33 452.871.90      11.99 440.37
Kent FOB     2.00                     12.28 451.031.95      12.04 442.21
Lambton FOB   N/A                                 2.05      12.14 445.88
Middlesex FOB N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A                   N/A

PROCESSORS
Hamilton     2.43 2.43 2.49 2.68      12.71 466.832.29      12.38 454.70
Windsor       N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A                   N/A
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Prescott     1.66                     11.94 438.542.30      12.39 455.07

Toledo El.   -0.23                    10.05 369.25-0.40      9.68 355.82


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2544 down 0.0091
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
MAY16      HI     4.86  3/4             JUL16   HI         4.97
           LOW        4.72                      LOW     4.81  1/2
           CLOSE  4.75  1/2  Up 1 1/4           CLOSE   4.85  1/2  Up 2

Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
MAY16      HI         5.42              SEP16   HI      5.59  3/4
           LOW        5.30                      LOW     5.48  1/2
           CLOSE  5.30   Down 3 1/2             CLOSE   5.50  1/2  Down  1/4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 2.77          0.64            0.58          0.40
CAD $/bu              7.53          5.40            5.33          5.70
CAD $/tonne         276.60        198.30          195.99        209.58


Direct MarkHarvest 2015                 Harvest 2016
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    0.25    N/A    N/A     0.30   0.25    N/A
London      2.73    0.28   0.34    N/A    0.62    0.24   0.24    N/A
Hensall     2.90    N/A    0.70    N/A    0.70    N/A    0.30    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.30    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A    0.35    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.20    N/A
Norwich     2.90    N/A    0.70    N/A    0.70    N/A    0.30    N/A
Port Hope    N/A    0.35   0.70    N/A    N/A     0.30   0.30   0.37
Kent Bridge 2.90    N/A    -0.05   N/A    0.70    N/A    0.30    N/A
Chatham      N/A    0.35   -0.10   N/A    N/A     0.25   0.25    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    -0.10   N/A    N/A     N/A    0.25    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    0.30   0.55   0.55    N/A     0.30   0.30   0.55
Varna       2.80    0.45   0.60    N/A    0.60    0.30   0.25    N/A
Mitchell    2.90    0.35   0.70    N/A    0.70    0.30   0.30    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   -0.14   N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    0.67   0.61   0.47    N/A     0.39   0.47   0.59

TERMINAL
Prescott     N/A    0.30    N/A    N/A    N/A     0.30   0.75   1.00

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM   3.09    N/A    1.14    N/A    1.73    N/A    1.04    N/A

Toledo El. 4.68US         5.86CA        4.71US          5.90CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.67          0.60            0.54          0.64
CAD $/bu              5.52          5.46            5.40          6.15
CAD $/tonne         202.90        200.60          198.30        225.93

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal             497.59
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      180.00 - 183.00

___________________________

Ontario Grain Market Commentary for the week of April 27, by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario

Wednesday, April 27, 2016 Closing Prices  
COMMODITY	PERIOD	PRICE	WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT	May	3.81	↓	         15	cents
Soybeans CBOT	May	10.19	↑	9	cents
Wheat CBOT	May	4.74	↓	30	cents
Wheat Minn.	May	5.33	↓	15	cents
Wheat Kansas	May	4.64	↓	29	cents
Chicago Oats	 May	1.96	↓	10	cents 
					
Canadian $	June	.7925	↑	.01	points

CORN: 
We reached our upside resistance of $4 on the May contract this week, and quickly retreated. As of today, we will move to the July contract. The current trading range is $3.70-$3.90 on the July contract, and we need to stay above the $3.70 on July to maintain our bullish stance for the short term outlook. If we can do that, we should be ready to re-challenge last week’s high of $4.07 on the July corn contract. Our short term indicators are still in bullish mode, but like all of the grains, we are fighting to turn the trend on the weekly charts, which may take considerable more time and work. For the time being, a close below $3.70 on July could mean a re-test of the $3.50 level. Meanwhile, for those thinking that this recent action could be the turning point, the technicals show that we would need a solid close above $4.25-$4.50 on the July chart to even attempt to break the back of the four year old bear.Short term indicators have turned positive, while the weekly indicators are neutral, and of course, the long term trend is still down. 

SOYBEANS:
As indicated last week, we saw our upside target of $10.50 challenged, as the July contract reached an eight month high of $10.44 before succumbing to gravitational forces. We are also getting the pullback we expected as we await a signal for future direction. We suspect a large part of the move came from fund short covering and actually reversing positions to bullish. Funds ramped up their bullish bets by the fastest pace in six years as they lifted their net long positions in soybeans to the highest level in more than two years, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
>From this point we could either see a continuation rally to challenge the $10.60 resistance on the July contract, or settle back to re-test support at the $9.70, $9.50, or even the $9.25 level. 
The weekly indicators are still positive, and our next challenge is to clear the $10.60 ceiling on the July chart. A close above that level could ignite another round of buying by the funds and drive this market higher by a dollar or more. Remember that this rally was foreseeable, but the charts still see the soybeans in a long term down trend and we would need to see prices above $13 in the next month or two before we could identify a trend reversal according to the technical alone. 

WHEAT:
July wheat enjoyed a good run alongside corn and beans last week, as we hit $5.20 on the July contract. This is in line with our expectations of $5.25-$5.50 major resistance, as mentioned many times. However, the check-back was more severe than its counterparts on the technical side of the trade. If the Soybeans continue its upward trek, I feel we will once again challenge the $5.50 overhead resistance, based solely on the bean and corn performance. Meanwhile, the short term indicators are friendly, but there is no doubt about the direction of the real trend, at least for the time being. Daily indicators are still positive, but the main trend is still down. Support is seen at the $4.60 level, and again at $4.40. while major resistance is still at the $5.40-$5.50 level based on the July contract.  

HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES as of CLOSE on April 27, 2016

SWW @ $203.30/MT ($5.53 bu),  HRW @ $200.98/MT ($5.47/bu), 
HRS @ $227.64/MT ($6.20/bu),  SRW @ $198.67/MT ($5.41/bu).
____________________________________________________________

Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News 
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus 
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577 
Fax. 519-674-1530 

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