[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report plus Weekly GFO Grain Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Apr 21 15:44:07 EDT 2016
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, April 21
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.271 up 0.0083
Chicago corn closed moderately lower to lower.
MAY16 HI 4.02 DEC16 HI 4.09
LOW 3.83 3/4 LOW 3.92 3/4
CLOSE3.84 1/2 Down 10 1/4 CLOSE 3.93 1/2 Down 9 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt Cntrct U.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL16+JUL16+SEP16
CK Low 0.65 4.50 176.96 0.50 4.44 174.60
CK High 0.75 4.60 180.90 0.60 4.54 178.54
CK Avg 0.67 -0.30 4.51 177.62 0.55 -0.41 4.49 176.57
Essex Cty 0.65 4.50 176.96 0.55 4.49 176.57
Mdsx Low 0.65 4.50 176.96 0.50 4.44 174.60
Mdsx High 0.65 4.50 176.96 0.55 4.49 176.57
Mdsx Avg 0.65 -0.31 4.50 176.96 0.53 -0.43 4.46 175.58
Hensall 0.67 4.51 177.55 0.53 4.46 175.58
Bruce 0.70 4.55 178.93 0.55 4.49 176.57
Putnam 0.70 4.55 178.93 0.55 4.49 176.57
Burford 0.65 4.50 176.96 0.55 4.49 176.57
Port Perry 0.65 4.50 176.96 0.55 4.49 176.57
Norfolk 0.65 4.50 176.96 0.55 4.49 176.57
Palmerston 0.65 4.50 176.96 0.55 4.49 176.57
Varna 0.70 4.55 178.93 0.55 4.49 176.57
Trenton 0.80 4.65 182.87 0.70 4.64 182.47
Winchester 0.95 4.80 188.77 0.86 4.80 188.77
North Gower 0.75 4.60 180.90 0.75 4.69 184.44
Huron FOB 0.87 4.72 185.62 0.65 4.59 180.50
Kent FOB 0.80 4.65 182.87 0.55 4.49 176.57
Lamb FOB 0.70 4.55 178.93 0.60 4.54 178.54
Mdsx FOB 0.65 0.65 0.65N/A 4.50 176.96 0.55 4.49 176.57
FOB SW Que 0.95 4.80 188.77N/A
Track 1.13 4.97 195.66N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 0.95 0.95 1.00 0.75 4.69 184.44
Sarn-Eth 1.00 1.05 1.05 1.10 4.85 190.74N/A
Kawartha N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.00 4.94 194.28
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.92 4.86 191.13
Pt.Colb-Ing 1.15 1.20 1.10 1.25 5.00 196.64N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.00 4.94 194.28
W O Feed 1.18 5.02 197.75
US Rep 1.33 5.18 203.73
Toledo El. 0.08 3.92 154.38 -0.25 3.68 144.90
MID SD CRN 0.70 4.54 1/2 0.55 4.48 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.75 4.59 1/2 0.60 4.53 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.271 up 0.0083
Chicago soybeans closed mixed.
MAY16 HI 10.34 3/4 NOV16 HI 10.23 1/2
LOW 10.02 1/2 LOW 9.91
CLOSE10.18 3/4 Up 9 CLOSE 9.98 1/2 Down 1 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt U.S. $/bu $/mt BasisU.S. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+MAY1+JUL16
CK Low 2.15 12.34 453.331.88 11.87 435.96
CK High 2.25 12.44 457.002.00 11.99 440.37
CK Average 2.20 -0.4512.38 455.041.93 -0.6211.92 437.80
Essex Cty 2.20 12.39 455.161.95 11.94 438.54
Mdsx Low 2.16 12.35 453.691.86 11.85 435.23
Mdsx High 2.20 12.39 455.161.90 11.89 436.70
Mdsx Average 2.18 -0.4712.37 454.431.88 -0.6611.87 435.96
Hensall 2.18 12.36 454.241.90 11.89 436.70
Bruce 2.20 12.39 455.161.90 11.89 436.70
Putnam 2.35 12.54 460.672.05 12.04 442.21
Burford 2.19 12.38 454.801.89 11.88 436.33
Port Perry 2.16 12.35 453.691.86 11.85 435.23
Norfolk 2.20 12.39 455.161.90 11.89 436.70
Palmerston 2.15 12.34 453.331.90 11.89 436.70
Varna 2.15 12.34 453.331.90 11.89 436.70
Trenton 2.25 12.44 457.001.95 11.94 438.54
Winchester 2.21 12.40 455.532.18 12.17 446.99
North Gower 2.21 12.40 455.532.16 12.15 446.25
Huron FOB 2.25 12.44 457.002.00 11.99 440.37
Kent FOB 2.35 12.54 460.672.00 11.99 440.37
Lambton FOB 2.30 12.49 458.842.10 12.09 444.05
Middlesex FOB2.26 2.26 2.36 N/A 12.45 457.372.03 12.02 441.48
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.66 2.66 2.68 2.74 12.85 472.062.51 12.50 459.11
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Prescott 1.90 12.09 444.142.50 12.49 458.75
Toledo El. -0.20 9.98 366.85-0.37 9.62 353.33
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.271 up 0.0083
Chicago wheat closed lower.
MAY16 HI 5.10 3/4 JUL16 HI 5.18 1/2
LOW 4.90 3/4 LOW 4.97 3/4
CLOSE 4.95 3/4 Down 8 1/2 CLOSE 5.03 1/2 Down 8 3/4
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
MAY16 HI 5.53 1/4 SEP16 HI 5.67
LOW 5.40 LOW 5.56 1/4
CLOSE 5.43 1/2 Down 6 3/4 CLOSE 5.58 1/2 Down 6
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.94 0.78 0.71 0.53
CAD $/bu 7.90 5.73 5.67 5.96
CAD $/tonne 290.19 210.72 208.38 219.01
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.30 N/A N/A 0.30 0.30 N/A
London 2.87 0.40 0.59 N/A 0.74 0.36 0.36 N/A
Hensall 2.90 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.30 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.25 N/A N/A N/A 0.20 N/A
Norwich 2.90 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.30 N/A
Port Hope N/A 0.55 0.70 N/A N/A 0.30 0.30 0.58
Kent Bridge 2.90 N/A -0.05 N/A 0.70 N/A 0.30 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.35 -0.05 N/A N/A 0.25 0.30 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A -0.05 N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.35 0.60 0.55 N/A 0.30 0.35 0.55
Varna 2.80 0.40 0.60 N/A 0.65 0.30 0.30 N/A
Mitchell 2.90 0.35 0.70 N/A 0.70 0.30 0.30 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 0.66 0.59 0.40 N/A 0.46 0.55 0.62
TERMINAL
Prescott N/A 0.35 N/A N/A N/A 0.55 0.80 1.00
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 3.26 N/A 1.26 N/A 1.88 N/A 1.18 N/A
Toledo El. 4.88US 6.21CA 4.89US 6.22CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.80 0.73 0.67 0.76
CAD $/bu 5.83 5.77 5.71 6.34
CAD $/tonne 214.34 212.00 209.66 233.04
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
FOB Hm Soymeal 492.74
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 190.00
____________
Ontario Grain Market Commentary for April 20, 2016 by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
Wednesday, April 20, 2016 Closing Prices
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT May 3.95 ↑ 23 cents
Soybeans CBOT May 10.10 ↑ 55 cents
Wheat CBOT May 5.04 ↑ 41 cents
Wheat Minn. May 5.48 ↑ 28 cents
Wheat Kansas May 4.93 ↑ 43 cents
Chicago Oats May 2.07 ↑ 15 cents
Canadian $ June .7925 ↑ 1.05 points
CORN:
It looks as though we have witnessed a reversal on negative news, a scenario that is quite common in the grain markets over the years. The huge carry-out sent the corn market lower by fifteen cents and establishing what seems to be the bottom for the time being. Although it may be too early to call, the large drop after the report was the low since the report was released. We have since rallied forty-five cents per bushel, and we have received another buy signal on our charts. Our overhead resistance at the $3.85- $4 level is now being tested, and if we can close convincingly above $4, we would be negating a two year old trend line on our weekly chart. Next week is closing in on the first notice day for the May contract, so I will be switching my commentary analysis to the July chart as of April 27.
Short term indicators have turned positive, but the long term trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
Beans are leading the charge to the upside in the grains since the WASDE report on March 31. We have gained a full dollar per bushel. We have actually seen our upside target of $10-$10.50 per bushel challenged as of this writing on April 20. From here we could see a brief pullback, and then a possible shot at a close above the $10.50 level, which should present more of a challenge. As I have mentioned many times during the winter months, a $2 rally in the beans would only be viewed as a bear market rally. The funds short liquidation would be enough to drive this market to the $10.50 levels on the May contract. We flashed a medium term buy signal last week, and for that reason it looks like we could see a realistic shot at the $10.50 resistance level on the lead month contract. If the driving forces behind this rally were to persist, it would still take a lot of work to actually turn this market into a bull market. From the long term charts, we could actually see another $1-2 rally from these levels and still see our confirmed signal for a bull market. Meanwhile, the $8.50 bottom seems to be in, and the $10.50 resistance should provide a nice trading range for the next few weeks.
The weekly indicators are still positive, and our next challenge is to clear the $10.50 ceiling. Remember that this rally is encouraging, but the charts still see the soybeans in a long term down trend until we see significant upside movement.
WHEAT:
Unlike the other crops, the initial reaction to the March 31 report was negative for a week after the report. We managed to pull back to re-check the support at $4.45, and only then did we challenge and remove the initial overhead resistance line at $4.80. Today, we are challenging our biggest resistance so far this year: the $5-$5.50 price on the Chicago May futures contract. This area has serious resistance until we clear the $5.50 price on the lead month contract. If we can manage that, we just may have a market bull on our hands. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s look at the trouble spots. Daily indicators are positive while the weekly signals are neutral and of course the main trend still signals a bear market. The best cure for a bear market is higher highs over a period of time. Resistance is seen initially at the $5.10 level and again at the $5.25-$5.50 level, while support is seen back at our $4.40 price on the lead month contract.
--
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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