[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commenary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Sep 17 17:07:19 EDT 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, September 17
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3186 up 0.0008
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.
DEC15 HI 3.85 1/2 DEC15 HI 3.85 1/2
LOW 3.79 1/4 LOW 3.79 1/4
CLOSE3.79 3/4 Down 6 1/4 CLOSE 3.79 3/4 Down 6 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC15+DEC15+MAR16
CK Low 0.80 4.60 181.00 0.55 4.35 171.15
CK High 0.85 4.65 182.96 0.55 4.35 171.15
CK Avg 0.84 -0.37 4.64 182.64 0.55 -0.66 4.35 171.15
Essex Cty 0.85 4.65 182.96 0.55 4.35 171.15
Mdsx Low 0.85 4.65 182.96 0.55 4.35 171.15
Mdsx High 0.85 4.65 182.96 0.65 4.45 175.09
Mdsx Avg 0.85 -0.36 4.65 182.96 0.60 -0.61 4.40 173.12
Hensall 0.85 4.65 182.96 0.65 4.45 175.09
Bruce 0.85 4.65 182.96 0.55 4.35 171.15
Putnam 0.80 4.60 181.00 0.50 4.30 169.19
Burford 0.85 4.65 182.96 0.55 4.35 171.15
Port Perry 0.85 4.65 182.96 0.55 4.35 171.15
Norfolk 0.85 4.65 182.96 0.55 4.35 171.15
Palmerston 0.85 4.65 182.96 0.60 4.40 173.12
Varna 0.65 4.45 175.09 0.65 4.45 175.09
Trenton 1.50 5.30 208.55 0.80 4.60 181.00
Winchester 1.20 5.00 196.74 1.20 5.00 196.74
North Gower 1.10 4.90 192.81 1.10 4.90 192.81
Huron FOB 1.30 5.10 200.68 0.70 4.50 177.06
Kent FOB 0.85 4.65 182.96 0.55 4.35 171.15
Lamb FOB 0.85 4.65 182.96 0.55 4.35 171.15
Mdsx FOB 0.95N/A N/A N/A 4.75 186.90 0.55 4.35 171.15
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.45 5.25 206.58N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A 0.85 N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A 1.50 0.90 0.90 1.10 4.90 192.81
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A 1.35 1.05 1.00 1.10 4.90 192.81
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.35N/A N/A 1.25 5.05 198.71
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.25 1.25 1.25 5.05 198.71
W O Feed 1.92 1.50 5.72 225.09
US Rep 1.90 1.48 5.70 224.30
Toledo El. -0.11 3.69 145.35 -0.26 3.53 139.12
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.55 4.34 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.55 4.34 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3186 up 0.0008
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
NOV15 HI 8.90 1/2 NOV16 HI 8.87
LOW 8.80 1/2 LOW 8.80
CLOSE8.84 1/2 Down 2 3/4 CLOSE 8.83 Down 1 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+JAN16
CK Low 2.00 10.85 398.491.70 10.53 386.91
CK High 2.10 10.95 402.161.75 10.58 388.75
CK Average 2.05 -0.7710.89 400.141.72 -1.0910.55 387.71
Essex Cty 2.05 10.90 400.321.70 10.53 386.91
Mdsx Low 2.00 10.85 398.491.68 10.51 386.18
Mdsx High 2.00 10.85 398.491.70 10.53 386.91
Mdsx Average 2.00 -0.8110.85 398.491.69 -1.1210.52 386.54
Hensall 2.00 10.85 398.491.68 10.51 385.99
Bruce 2.05 10.90 400.321.75 10.58 388.75
Putnam 1.70 10.55 387.461.50 10.33 379.56
Burford 2.03 10.88 399.591.71 10.54 387.28
Port Perry 2.00 10.85 398.491.68 10.51 386.18
Norfolk 2.05 10.90 400.321.70 10.53 386.91
Palmerston 2.00 10.85 398.491.70 10.53 386.91
Varna 2.00 10.85 398.491.65 10.48 385.07
Trenton 2.05 10.90 400.321.75 10.58 388.75
Winchester 2.20 11.05 405.832.08 10.91 400.87
North Gower 2.22 11.07 406.572.04 10.87 399.40
Huron FOB 2.05 10.90 400.321.75 10.58 388.75
Kent FOB 2.05 10.90 400.321.70 10.53 386.91
Lambton FOB 2.05 10.90 400.321.70 10.53 386.91
Middlesex FOB2.30 2.23 2.34 N/A 11.15 409.512.23 11.06 406.39
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.69 2.62 2.69 2.70 11.54 423.84 N/A
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.37 8.48 311.44-0.50 8.33 306.04
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3186 up 0.0008
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC15 HI 4.89 3/4 JUL16 HI 5.05 3/4
LOW 4.80 3/4 LOW 4.97 1/2
CLOSE 4.81 1/2 Down 6 3/4 CLOSE 4.97 1/2 Down 7 1/4
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC15 HI 5.16 1/2 SEP16 HI 5.55 3/4
LOW 5.09 LOW 5.55
CLOSE 5.10 1/4 Down 6 1/4 CLOSE 5.55 1/4 Down 6
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 3.64 1.66 1.40 0.77
CAD $/bu 8.46 6.48 6.22 5.87
CAD $/tonne 310.72 238.06 228.38 215.66
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.90 N/A N/A 1.30 0.70 N/A
London 3.29 1.29 0.85 N/A 1.68 1.29 0.63 N/A
Hensall 3.60 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.85 N/A 0.60 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 0.90 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.35 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Norwich 3.60 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.85 N/A 0.60 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 3.60 N/A 0.40 N/A 1.85 N/A 0.60 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 0.35 N/A N/A 1.30 0.60 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.35 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.25 1.00 0.55 N/A 1.35 0.65 0.20
Varna 3.60 1.20 1.00 N/A 1.85 1.20 0.60 N/A
Mitchell 3.60 1.20 1.00 N/A 1.85 1.30 0.60 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.42 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.65 1.42 0.79 N/A 1.74 0.10 1.26
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 4.56N/A 1.86N/A 3.56N/A 1.98N/A
Toledo El. 4.89US 6.44CA 4.80US 6.32CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.58 1.71 0.79 1.24
CAD $/bu 6.56 6.69 5.77 6.79
CAD $/tonne 240.97 245.81 211.91 249.57
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats 280.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 495.17 - 499.58
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 215.00 - 217.00
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.81 ↑ 12 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 8.82 ↑ 10 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 4.82 ↑ 10 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.11 ↑ 06 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 4.80 ↑ 08 cents
Chicago Oats Dec 2.30 ↓ 03 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7582 ↑ .23 points
CORN:
On the charts: The USDA report on September 11 proved to be supportive according to the price action that followed. The initial knee jerk reaction saw the December contract run the stops below 3.65 before accelerating upwards to close at a one month high of 3.87 per bushel. This move was construed as positive for the short term indicators, as we received a buy signal on the market close on September 11. On Tuesday September 15, we touched 3.95 per bushel, a 38% re-tracement of the 4.55 top made back on July 14. This was our first resistance area and a pullback to the 3.75-80 range should follow on the December contract, before another attempt is made at the recent high. The weekly charts show solid support at the 3.65-70 area and a failure to hold this area could result in a double dip to re-test the recent bottom at the 3.50 level. The 30 cent range in in September has given us hope that we are trying to put in a bottom for the winter, however, the trend remains down as we need more work to turn this market around.
SOYBEANS:
On the charts: The November contract has given us a weak buy signal but in reality it seems more like a bear market rally. The September 11 report allowed the market to take out the stops below our 8.50 support level and closed positive for the day. This slightly bullish technical move looks positive on the day charts but not so positive when you look at the weekly chart. Overhead resistance is now around 9.40-50, while support is seen at the 8.50 level on the November contract. Even though we saw a minor short term buy signal, medium and long term indicators are still negative.
WHEAT:
On the charts: Last week we talked about a move to run stops on the release of the report and recover and close positive on the day. That was pretty much the way it played out. The market dropped initially on the release of the report and closed positive on the day, as it raced toward the 5.00 downtrend line. We are now in pullback mode and our 4.75-4.80 level could be a resting area before another assault on that 5.00 level. If however we fail this area, our next major support is seen around the 4.20 level on the December contract. Meanwhile, all indicators are still negative. Until we close above the 5.00 level, we need to continue treating this as a bear market.
HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF Noon September 17, 2015
SWW @ $312.30/MT ($8.50/bu), HRW @ $239.56/MT ($6.52/bu),
HRS @ $216.77/MT ($5.90/bu), SRW @ $229.86/MT ($6.26/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
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John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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