[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report plus Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Oct 7 15:48:50 EDT 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, October 7
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3036 down 0.0020
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
DEC15 HI 3.99 3/4 DEC16 HI 4.20
LOW 3.93 3/4 LOW 4.15
CLOSE3.95 3/4 Down 2 1/2 CLOSE 4.17 1/2 Down 1 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC15+MAR16+MAR16
CK Low 0.55 4.51 177.45 0.55 4.73 186.02
CK High 0.65 4.61 181.39 0.60 4.78 187.98
CK Avg 0.60 -0.61 4.56 179.42 0.56 -0.72 4.73 186.34
Essex Cty 0.55 4.51 177.45 0.55 4.73 186.02
Mdsx Low 0.60 4.56 179.42 0.55 4.73 186.02
Mdsx High 0.65 4.61 181.39 0.65 4.83 189.95
Mdsx Avg 0.63 -0.59 4.58 180.41 0.60 -0.68 4.78 187.98
Hensall 0.68 4.63 182.37 0.65 4.83 189.95
Bruce 0.60 4.56 179.42 0.55 4.73 186.02
Putnam 0.60 4.56 179.42 0.55 4.73 186.02
Burford 0.60 4.56 179.42 0.55 4.73 186.02
Port Perry 0.65 4.61 181.39 0.65 4.83 189.95
Norfolk 0.55 4.51 177.45 0.55 4.73 186.02
Palmerston 0.65 4.61 181.39 0.55 4.73 186.02
Varna 0.70 4.66 183.36 0.65 4.83 189.95
Trenton 0.80 4.76 187.29 0.65 4.83 189.95
Winchester 1.20 5.16 203.04 0.90 5.08 199.79
North Gower 1.15 5.11 201.07 0.85 5.03 197.83
Huron FOB 1.00 4.96 195.17 0.75 4.93 193.89
Kent FOB 0.55 4.51 177.45 0.55 4.73 186.02
Lamb FOB 0.55 4.51 177.45 0.55 4.73 186.02
Mdsx FOB 0.60N/A N/A N/A 4.56 179.42 0.55 4.73 186.02
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.13 5.08 200.09N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 0.90 0.95 N/A
Sarn-Eth 1.10 0.90 0.90 0.95 5.06 199.10N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.05 1.15 0.95 5.13 201.76
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.20 1.30 0.95 5.13 201.76
W O Feed 1.40 1.00 5.36 210.92
US Rep 1.40 1.00 5.36 210.92
Toledo El. -0.07 3.89 153.23 -0.56 3.61 142.24
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.60 4.55 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.65 4.60 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3036 down 0.0020
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
NOV15 HI 8.96 NOV16 HI 9.03 1/4
LOW 8.85 3/4 LOW 8.93 1/4
CLOSE8.91 Up 3 CLOSE 8.99 1/4 Up 3 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+JAN1+JAN16
CK Low 2.00 10.91 400.871.58 10.57 388.47
CK High 2.10 11.01 404.551.75 10.74 394.72
CK Average 2.04 -0.7010.95 402.281.65 -1.1110.64 390.86
Essex Cty 2.02 10.93 401.611.59 10.58 388.84
Mdsx Low 1.99 10.90 400.511.56 10.55 387.74
Mdsx High 2.00 10.91 400.871.65 10.64 391.04
Mdsx Average 2.00 -0.7410.91 400.691.61 -1.1510.60 389.39
Hensall 2.00 10.91 400.871.65 10.64 391.04
Bruce 2.00 10.91 400.871.65 10.64 391.04
Putnam 2.00 10.91 400.871.60 10.59 389.21
Burford 2.02 10.93 401.611.59 10.58 388.84
Port Perry 1.99 10.90 400.511.56 10.55 387.74
Norfolk 2.07 10.98 403.451.59 10.58 388.84
Palmerston 2.05 10.96 402.711.70 10.69 392.88
Varna 2.00 10.91 400.871.65 10.64 391.04
Trenton 1.95 10.86 399.041.60 10.59 389.21
Winchester 2.33 11.24 413.001.92 10.91 400.97
North Gower 2.17 11.08 407.122.02 11.01 404.64
Huron FOB 2.10 11.01 404.551.70 10.69 392.88
Kent FOB 2.02 10.93 401.611.59 10.58 388.84
Lambton FOB 2.02 10.93 401.611.59 10.58 388.84
Middlesex FOB2.16 2.26 N/A N/A 11.07 406.751.80 10.79 396.56
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.54 2.61 2.63 2.63 11.45 420.722.12 11.11 408.31
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.37 8.54 313.94-0.50 8.50 312.17
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3036 down 0.0020
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC15 HI 5.31 1/2 JUL16 HI 5.45 1/4
LOW 5.15 LOW 5.30
CLOSE 5.16 3/4 Down 9 1/2 CLOSE 5.31 3/4 Down 8 3/4
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC15 HI 5.44 SEP16 HI 5.84
LOW 5.31 1/2 LOW 5.73
CLOSE 5.32 3/4 Down 8 CLOSE 5.73 3/4 Down 8
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 3.68 1.45 1.19 0.72
CAD $/bu 8.84 6.62 6.36 6.05
CAD $/tonne 324.96 243.33 233.73 222.21
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A 1.10 0.55 N/A
London 3.39 1.04 0.86 N/A 1.61 1.03 0.51 N/A
Hensall 3.60 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.75 N/A 0.55 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.55 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.35 N/A N/A N/A 0.55 N/A
Norwich 3.60 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.85 N/A 0.55 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 3.60 N/A 0.40 N/A 1.85 N/A 0.55 N/A
Chatham N/A 1.10 0.35 N/A N/A 1.15 0.55 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.35 N/A N/A N/A 0.55 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.05 1.00 0.50 N/A 1.15 0.55 0.30
Varna 3.50 1.05 1.00 N/A 1.70 1.10 0.50 N/A
Mitchell 3.60 1.10 1.00 N/A 1.75 1.15 0.55 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.57 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.47 1.21 0.73 N/A 1.77 0.86 1.25
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 4.40N/A 1.98N/A 3.27N/A 1.96N/A
Toledo El. 5.34US 6.98CA 5.14US 6.71CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.63 1.76 0.85 1.24
CAD $/bu 6.95 7.08 6.17 6.98
CAD $/tonne 255.34 260.14 226.53 256.30
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 260.00 - 265.00
Bayport Oats 265.00
Bayport Barley 250.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 492.19 - 505.42
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 210.00 - 217.00
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.95 ¾ ↑ 7 ¾ cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 8.91 ↓ 1 cent
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.16 ¾ ↑ 3 ¾ cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.33 ¼ ↑ 6 ¼ cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 5.08 ↑ 6 cents
Chicago Oats Dec 2.19 ¼ ↓ 7 ¾ cents
Canadian $ Dec .7649 ↑ 159 points
CORN:
On the charts: The corn continues its base building and appears ready to challenge the $4.00 mark on the December contract. As of this writing on October 7th, we are trading at $3.96 on the December contract. A close just above the $4.00 level could extend the move to the $4.15-4.20 overhead resistance level. As mentioned last week this head and shoulder formation extends to that $4.20 level. Also noteworthy is that we saw a buy signal on the weekly chart which is very supportive for the upcoming weeks. Major overhead resistance is now at $4.50-4.60, based on December futures. Major support is seen at $3.70-$3.85. The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is due out Friday October 9th at noon. Short term indicators are positive while the weekly indicators are neutral. The main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
On the charts:
The November soybean contract has confined itself to a box and the breakout should determine the direction for the next couple of months.
The parameters of the box are based on the November contract prices between $8.50 and $9.00. A close above the $9.00 level could produce a rally to the gap at $9.40 but a break below the $8.50 level could take us to the $8.00 level quite quickly. Short term indicators are neutral while the main trend is still down.
WHEAT:
On the charts:
This week was rather quiet as we are at our resistance levels spoken of last week. Meanwhile, we are waiting for the October 9th WASDE report. Wheat has moved higher since the $4.60 low made at the beginning of September and has since rallied to the important $5.30 resistance level. The current head and shoulders formation suggests a move back to the $5.50-5.60 level based on the December contract; however, there will be corrections along the way. As of this writing on October 7th we are hovering around the $5.25 level on the December contract and may not move much higher until after the report on Friday. Solid support is seen at the $5.00 and $4.60 levels while resistance is seen at the $5.50-5.60 and again at $5.75-$6.00 levels. Short term indicators are positive while the main trend is still down.
Cash Prices as of market close October 7, 2015
SWW @ $325.10/MT ($8.85/bu), HRW @ $243.43/MT ($6.63/bu),
HRS @ $222.54/MT ($6.06/bu), SRW @ $233.83/MT ($6.36/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
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John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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