[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Market Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Nov 25 15:59:22 EST 2015


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, November 25
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3301 down 0.0007
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.

      DEC15   HI 3.66  1/2                    DEC16    HI 3.95
             LOW 3.64                                 LOW 3.91  3/4
            CLOSE3.66   Up 1 3/4                    CLOSE 3.94  1/2  Up 2 3/4

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt  Adj $/bu   $/mt Cntrct  Adj   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +MAR16+MAR16+MAR16
CK Low       0.90                        4.56 179.52  0.82         4.77 187.59
CK High      0.97                        4.63 182.28  0.85         4.80 188.77
CK Avg       0.93                  -0.28 4.59 180.63  0.85 -0.46   4.79 188.57
Essex Cty    0.97                        4.63 182.28  0.85         4.80 188.77
Mdsx Low     0.90                        4.56 179.52  0.85         4.80 188.77
Mdsx High    0.90                        4.56 179.52  0.85         4.80 188.77
Mdsx Avg     0.90                  -0.31 4.56 179.52  0.85 -0.45   4.80 188.77
Hensall      0.90                        4.56 179.52  0.83         4.77 187.79
Bruce        0.90                        4.56 179.52  0.85         4.80 188.77
Putnam       0.90                        4.56 179.52  0.85         4.80 188.77
Burford      0.90                        4.56 179.52  0.85         4.80 188.77
Port Perry   0.90                        4.56 179.52  0.85         4.80 188.77
Norfolk      0.95                        4.61 181.49  0.85         4.80 188.77
Palmerston   0.95                        4.61 181.49  0.85         4.80 188.77
Varna        0.90                        4.56 179.52  0.80         4.75 186.80
Trenton      0.80                        4.46 175.58  0.85         4.80 188.77
Winchester   0.90                        4.56 179.52  0.90         4.85 190.74
North Gower  0.85                        4.51 177.55  0.90         4.85 190.74
Huron FOB   N/A                                       0.75         4.70 184.83
Kent FOB     0.95                        4.61 181.49  0.85         4.80 188.77
Lamb FOB     0.95                        4.61 181.49  0.85         4.80 188.77
Mdsx FOB     0.90  0.85N/A   N/A         4.56 179.52  0.85         4.80 188.77
FOB SW Que  N/A                                     N/A
Track        1.38                        5.04 198.22N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A    1.05  1.25  1.25                   1.00         4.95 194.68
Sarn-Eth     1.20  1.30  1.35  1.35      4.86 191.33N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                     N/A*
London-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      1.10         5.05 198.61
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      1.10         5.05 198.61
W O Feed     1.35                   0.91 5.01 197.16

US Rep       1.65                   1.21 5.31 209.05
Toledo El.   0.21                        3.87 152.46 -0.31         3.64 143.27

TRANSFER
Sarnia      N/A                                     N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A                                     N/A
Hamilton    N/A                                     N/A

MID SD CRN   0.93   1/2                  4.59 1/2
HI SD CRN    0.97                        4.63
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3301 down 0.0007
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately higher.

       JAN16   HI 8.77                NOV16    HI 8.94  3/4
              LOW 8.61  1/2                   LOW 8.81  1/2
             CLOSE8.75  1/4  Up 11 1/2      CLOSE 8.94  1/4  Up 10 3/4

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt Adj.  $/bu  $/mt BasisAdj.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +JAN1+JAN1+MAR16
CK Low       2.30                     11.05 406.112.00      10.94 402.07
CK High      2.40                     11.15 409.782.05      10.99 403.91
CK Average   2.37                -0.5211.12 408.622.01 -0.9410.95 402.37
Essex Cty    2.40                     11.15 409.782.00      10.94 402.07
Mdsx Low     2.29                     11.04 405.741.98      10.92 401.33
Mdsx High    2.40                     11.15 409.782.00      10.94 402.07
Mdsx Average 2.35                -0.5411.10 407.761.99 -0.9610.93 401.70
Hensall      2.35                     11.10 407.952.00      10.94 402.07
Bruce        2.40                     11.15 409.782.00      10.94 402.07
Putnam        N/A                                 2.00      10.94 402.07
Burford      2.36                     11.11 408.312.05      10.99 403.91
Port Perry   2.26                     11.01 404.641.95      10.89 400.23
Norfolk      2.40                     11.15 409.782.00      10.94 402.07
Palmerston   2.35                     11.10 407.952.00      10.94 402.07
Varna        2.30                     11.05 406.112.00      10.94 402.07
Trenton      2.35                     11.10 407.952.00      10.94 402.07
Winchester   2.31                     11.06 406.482.16      11.10 407.95
North Gower  2.29                     11.04 405.742.12      11.06 406.48
Huron FOB    2.50                     11.25 413.462.05      10.99 403.91
Kent FOB     2.40                     11.15 409.782.00      10.94 402.07
Lambton FOB  2.40                     11.15 409.782.00      10.94 402.07
Middlesex FOB2.56 2.56  N/A  N/A      11.31 415.662.15      11.09 407.58

PROCESSORS
Hamilton     2.94 2.93 3.00  N/A      11.69 429.632.52      11.46 421.17
Windsor       N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A                   N/A
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton      N/A                                  N/A
Pt. Stanley   N/A                                  N/A
Sarnia        N/A                                  N/A
Owen Sound    N/A                                  N/A
Sorel QC      N/A                                  N/A

Toledo El.   -0.24                     8.51 312.81-0.37      8.57 314.90


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3301 down 0.0007
Chicago wheat closed mixed.
DEC15      HI     4.87  1/2             JUL16   HI         5.01
           LOW        4.79                      LOW        4.97
           CLOSE  4.79  1/4  Down 5             CLOSE   4.97  1/2  Up  1/2

Minni wheat closed mixed.
DEC15      HI         5.19              SEP16   HI         5.40
           LOW    5.08  3/4                     LOW     5.36  3/4
           CLOSE  5.14  1/2  Up 5               CLOSE   5.36  3/4  Down  3/4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 3.44          1.05            1.05          0.77
CAD $/bu              8.23          5.84            5.84          5.91
CAD $/tonne         302.53        214.59          214.59        217.16


Direct MarkHarvest 2015                 Harvest 2016
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    0.80    N/A    N/A     0.90   0.40    N/A
London      3.47    0.88   0.88    N/A    1.39    0.86   0.39    N/A
Hensall     3.50    N/A    1.00    N/A    1.20    N/A    0.40    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.40    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A    0.75    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.45    N/A
Norwich     3.50    N/A    1.00    N/A    1.30    N/A    0.40    N/A
Mt. Elgin    N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Kent Bridge 3.50    N/A    0.35    N/A    1.30    N/A    0.40    N/A
Chatham      N/A    0.90   0.40    N/A    N/A     0.90   0.40    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.40    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.40    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    0.98   1.08   0.40    N/A     1.00   0.40   0.30
Varna       3.50    0.90   1.00    N/A    1.15    0.80   0.35    N/A
Mitchell    3.50    0.90   1.00    N/A    1.20    0.90   0.40    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.40    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    0.97   0.97   0.65    N/A     0.99   0.61   0.88

TERMINAL
Sarnia       N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Hamilton     N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Pt. Stanley  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM     4.24N/A        1.85N/A        2.64N/A        1.64N/A

Toledo El. 4.96US         6.60CA        4.95US          6.57CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.51          1.24            0.71          0.97
CAD $/bu              6.48          6.22            5.68          6.34
CAD $/tonne         238.17        228.40          208.85        232.92

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat              -
Bayport Oats               -
Bayport Barley             -
FOB Hm Soymeal            462.76
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      190.00 - 200.00


Grain Farmers of Ontario market commentary for November 25, 2015 by Marty Hibbs


Wednesday, November 25, 2015
COMMODITY	PERIOD	PRICE	WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT	Dec	3.66	↑	         04	cents
Soybeans CBOT	Jan	8.75	↑	19	cents
Wheat CBOT	Dec	4.80	↓	04	cents
Wheat Minn.	Dec	5.00	↑	16	cents
Wheat Kansas	Dec	4.57	↓	02	cents
Chicago Oats	 Dec	2.44	↑	01	cents 
					
Canadian $	Dec	.7520	↑	.20	points


CORN: 

On the charts:  Monday, November 23 gave us a glimmer of hope for an upward move. This hope came in all three of our grain markets in the form of an outside day reversal. The technical indicator is usually a prelude to a market turn but in this case I think it may need a lot stronger indicator before I get too excited.  Meanwhile, the December contract is coming into first notice day on Monday, November 30 and we will be switching to the March 2016 contract at that time.
The $3.50 - $3.60 levels on the December contract held nicely and our immediate overhead resistance is now somewhere around $3.75 on the December contract. Major resistance is around the $4 level and our support levels are still at $3.50 and $3.20. The market indicators are negative by all accounts and should be viewed as such until we see proof of a sustained reversal.

SOYBEANS:

On the charts:  After witnessing an outside key reversal on Monday, November 23, there was no follow through the following day as prices were flat. However, on Wednesday, November 25, the strength continued as the January contract extended gains by 30 cents since Monday closing at $8.75 on the January Chicago futures.
The two price points that we need to surpass to get some traction at this point are the infamous $9 level followed by an even tougher $9.40 level based on the January contract. 

The $8.50 support line continues to be the main support level, while a close below that level would suggest a possible move to the $8 level or even down to the 2008 low of $7.75 based on the lead month contract. 
Short term indicators are now neutral while the weekly and monthly indicators are still quite bearish. 

 

WHEAT: 

On the charts:  In the case of the wheat’s outside day reversal, the outcome was not as promising. After following the other grains and opening lower to close higher with an outside day reversal on Monday, November 23, the Chicago wheat lost its gains and actually closed lower than it had all week. We are now sitting back at our $4.75- $4.80 support line as of November 25. If we close below this area then a re-test of the important $4.50- $4.60 seems possible. There is a caveat to this scenario and that is the fact that corn and soybeans and even the Minneapolis wheat held their support after the reversal day.   

Below the $4.50 level our next floor seems to be a test of the $4 level based on the lead month contract. Overhead resistance is now at $5 and again at $5.30 on the lead month contract. 
We will be switching over to March starting the week of November 30. All indicators remain negative, and the main trend is still down. 


HARVEST 2016 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE ON November 25, 2015

SWW @ $238.20/MT ($6.48/bu),  HRW @ $228.43/MT ($6.22/bu), 
HRS @ $233.07/MT ($6.34/bu),  SRW @ $208.88/MT ($5.68/bu).



-- 
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News 
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus 
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577 
Fax. 519-674-1530 

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