[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Nov 19 15:58:15 EST 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, November 19
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3267 down 0.0086
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
DEC15 HI 3.65 1/2 DEC16 HI 3.92 1/4
LOW 3.60 1/4 LOW 3.88
CLOSE3.64 1/4 Up 2 1/2 CLOSE 3.91 3/4 Up 2 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR16+MAR16+MAR16
CK Low 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.80 4.72 185.72
CK High 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.85 4.77 187.69
CK Avg 0.90 -0.30 4.54 178.83 0.84 -0.44 4.76 187.36
Essex Cty 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.85 4.77 187.69
Mdsx Low 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.85 4.77 187.69
Mdsx High 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.85 4.77 187.69
Mdsx Avg 0.90 -0.30 4.54 178.83 0.85 -0.43 4.77 187.69
Hensall 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.84 4.75 187.10
Bruce 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.85 4.77 187.69
Putnam 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.85 4.77 187.69
Burford 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.85 4.77 187.69
Port Perry 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.85 4.77 187.69
Norfolk 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.85 4.77 187.69
Palmerston 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.85 4.77 187.69
Varna 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.80 4.72 185.72
Trenton 0.80 4.44 174.89 0.80 4.72 185.72
Winchester 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.90 4.82 189.66
North Gower 0.85 4.49 176.86 0.85 4.77 187.69
Huron FOB 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.85 4.77 187.69
Kent FOB 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.85 4.77 187.69
Lamb FOB 0.90 4.54 178.83 0.85 4.77 187.69
Mdsx FOB 0.90 0.85N/A N/A 4.54 178.83 0.85 4.77 187.69
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.37 5.01 197.14N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 1.05 1.25 1.30 1.00 4.92 193.59
Sarn-Eth 1.20 1.30 1.25 1.25 4.84 190.64N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.10 5.02 197.53
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.35 1.40 1.10 5.02 197.53
W O Feed 1.32 0.89 4.96 195.36
US Rep 1.65 1.22 5.29 208.36
Toledo El. 0.20 3.84 151.25 -0.57 3.35 131.77
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.90 4.54 1/4
HI SD CRN 0.90 4.54 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3267 down 0.0086
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
JAN16 HI 8.63 NOV16 HI 8.80 3/4
LOW 8.52 1/2 LOW 8.71 3/4
CLOSE8.60 Up 2 1/4 CLOSE 8.79 1/2 Up 2 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+MAR16
CK Low 2.19 10.79 396.461.80 10.60 389.30
CK High 2.25 10.85 398.671.95 10.75 394.81
CK Average 2.24 -0.6010.84 398.121.91 -0.9610.70 393.28
Essex Cty 2.25 10.85 398.671.95 10.75 394.81
Mdsx Low 2.17 10.77 395.731.86 10.66 391.50
Mdsx High 2.25 10.85 398.671.95 10.75 394.81
Mdsx Average 2.21 -0.6210.81 397.201.91 -0.9610.70 393.16
Hensall 2.25 10.85 398.671.93 10.72 393.89
Bruce 2.25 10.85 398.671.95 10.75 394.81
Putnam N/A 1.85 10.65 391.14
Burford 2.24 10.84 398.301.93 10.73 394.08
Port Perry 2.14 10.74 394.631.83 10.63 390.40
Norfolk 2.22 10.82 397.571.92 10.72 393.71
Palmerston 2.30 10.90 400.511.95 10.75 394.81
Varna 2.25 10.85 398.671.90 10.70 392.97
Trenton 2.20 10.80 396.831.80 10.60 389.30
Winchester 2.20 10.80 396.832.01 10.81 397.02
North Gower 2.22 10.82 397.572.02 10.82 397.38
Huron FOB 2.40 11.00 404.182.00 10.80 396.65
Kent FOB 2.22 10.82 397.571.92 10.72 393.71
Lambton FOB 2.22 10.82 397.571.92 10.72 393.71
Middlesex FOB2.38 2.46 N/A N/A 10.98 403.452.10 10.90 400.32
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.76 2.82 2.82 N/A 11.36 417.412.55 11.35 416.86
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.24 8.36 307.20-0.50 8.29 304.64
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3267 down 0.0086
Chicago wheat closed slightly to moderately higher.
DEC15 HI 4.92 3/4 JUL16 HI 5.00 1/2
LOW 4.81 1/2 LOW 4.90 3/4
CLOSE 4.90 3/4 Up 7 1/2 CLOSE 4.98 Up 5
Minni wheat closed moderately higher.
DEC15 HI 5.10 1/4 SEP16 HI 5.40 1/2
LOW 5.00 LOW 5.35
CLOSE 5.08 3/4 Up 8 3/4 CLOSE 5.40 1/2 Up 6 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 3.48 1.22 1.22 0.74
CAD $/bu 8.38 6.12 6.12 5.83
CAD $/tonne 308.07 225.04 225.04 214.29
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A 0.90 0.45 N/A
London 3.45 0.86 0.86 N/A 1.36 0.83 0.36 N/A
Hensall 3.50 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.25 N/A 0.40 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Norwich 3.50 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.35 N/A 0.40 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 3.50 N/A 0.35 N/A 1.35 N/A 0.40 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.90 0.40 N/A N/A 0.95 0.40 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.40 N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.90 1.00 0.45 N/A 1.00 0.40 0.30
Varna 3.50 0.90 1.00 N/A 1.15 0.80 0.35 N/A
Mitchell 3.50 0.90 1.00 N/A 1.25 0.90 0.40 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.56 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.11 1.11 0.63 N/A 1.07 0.68 0.95
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 4.27N/A 1.88N/A 2.62N/A 1.62N/A
Toledo El. 5.08US 6.75CA 4.95US 6.56CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.62 1.29 0.76 1.03
CAD $/bu 6.60 6.27 5.74 6.44
CAD $/tonne 242.68 230.50 211.01 236.59
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat -
Bayport Oats -
Bayport Barley -
FOB Hm Soymeal 468.05
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 185.00
Grain Farmers of Ontario Market Commentary by Marty Hibbs for Wednesday, November 18, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.62 ↑ 01 cents
Soybeans CBOT Jan 8.56 ↓ 15 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 4.84 ↓ 14 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.00 ↓ 06 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 4.59 ↓ 06 cents
Chicago Oats Dec 2.43 ↑ 07 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7500 ↓ .25 points
CORN:
On the charts: Once again following up on last week’s comments about two important support lines, we are witnessing the $3.50 - $3.60 levels on the December contract being challenged as of November 18. This is an important support level as a close below $3.47 would indicate a move back to the $3.20 level on the lead month contract to confirm price support. Below that level we are looking at a six year support line at $3. I am getting ahead of myself, but I feel it’s necessary to look ahead as we are in a major downtrend and it is important to know where the support lines cross. Technically, a close below the $3 level looks rather ugly, but hopefully the support levels will hold.
All indicators at this point remain negative and this multi-year trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
On the charts: Soybean prices are following the same support level tests as their counterparts. As mentioned last week, we are now leaning on the $8.50 - $8.60 support line and as of November 18 we are trading at $8.58 on the January contract. Overall, the technical analysis looks negative, and if the January contract closes below $8.50 we could be looking at a move to the $8 level as an extension of the flag on the weekly chart.
Overhead resistance on January is still at the $9.25 - $9.50 level while support is seen at $8.50 and again at $8.
All indicators are negative and the main trend remains negative.
WHEAT: On the charts:
The biggest culprit for weak prices in the U.S. seems to be the strong U.S. dollar. This of course makes U.S. wheat exports expensive and non-competitive in the world markets.
We witnessed another week of weaker prices for wheat as the futures for December came down to our support levels at $4.80 and are currently sitting there as of November 18. This $4.80 support level is important in that a close below this price on the December contract will signal a possible re-test of the $4.50 - $4.60 bottom made back on September 4.
Currently, support is seen at $4.50 and again around the $4 level based on the lead month contract with overhead resistance at the highs of $5.30 established on November 6.
We will be quoting the March contract the week of November 27.
All indicators remain negative, and the main trend is still down.
HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF 9 a.m. November 19, 2015
SWW @ $305.39/MT ($8.31/bu), HRW @ $222.32/MT ($6.05/bu),
HRS @ $212.06/MT ($5.77/bu), SRW @ $222.32/MT ($6.05/bu).
Blair Andrews
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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Grain Farmers of Ontario
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