[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report and Weekly GFO Market Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Nov 5 16:05:46 EST 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, November 5
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3167 up 0.0003
Chicago corn closed slightly to moderately lower.
DEC15 HI 3.79 3/4 DEC16 HI 4.05 1/2
LOW 3.73 3/4 LOW 4.01 1/2
CLOSE3.74 1/2 Down 6 CLOSE 4.02 1/4 Down 4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC15+MAR16+MAR16
CK Low 0.75 4.50 176.96 0.65 4.67 183.95
CK High 0.80 4.55 178.93 0.70 4.72 185.92
CK Avg 0.77 -0.42 4.51 177.62 0.68 -0.60 4.71 185.26
Essex Cty 0.80 4.55 178.93 0.70 4.72 185.92
Mdsx Low 0.75 4.50 176.96 0.65 4.67 183.95
Mdsx High 0.75 4.50 176.96 0.70 4.72 185.92
Mdsx Avg 0.75 -0.44 4.50 176.96 0.68 -0.61 4.70 184.93
Hensall 0.78 4.52 177.94 0.73 4.75 186.90
Bruce 0.75 4.50 176.96 0.70 4.72 185.92
Putnam 0.70 4.45 174.99 0.65 4.67 183.95
Burford 0.75 4.50 176.96 0.65 4.67 183.95
Port Perry 0.70 4.45 174.99 0.65 4.67 183.95
Norfolk 0.80 4.55 178.93 0.70 4.72 185.92
Palmerston 0.75 4.50 176.96 0.70 4.72 185.92
Varna 0.75 4.50 176.96 0.70 4.72 185.92
Trenton 0.75 4.50 176.96 0.65 4.67 183.95
Winchester 0.95 4.70 184.83 0.85 4.87 191.82
North Gower 1.00 4.75 186.80 0.85 4.87 191.82
Huron FOB 0.85 4.60 180.90 0.80 4.82 189.85
Kent FOB 0.80 4.55 178.93 0.70 4.72 185.92
Lamb FOB 0.80 4.55 178.93 0.70 4.72 185.92
Mdsx FOB 0.75 0.85N/A N/A 4.50 176.96 0.65 4.67 183.95
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.08 4.82 189.76N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A 1.00 1.05 1.10 0.90 4.92 193.79
Sarn-Eth 0.95 0.95 1.00N/A 4.70 184.83N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
W O Feed 1.16 0.74 4.91 193.10
US Rep 1.60 1.18 5.35 210.42
Toledo El. 0.16 3.90 153.65 -0.57 3.46 136.04
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.77 1/2 4.52
HI SD CRN 0.80 4.54 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3167 up 0.0003
Chicago soybeans closed moderately lower.
JAN16 HI 8.85 1/2 NOV16 HI 8.89 3/4
LOW 8.63 1/4 LOW 8.73
CLOSE8.64 Down 20 CLOSE 8.74 Down 15
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+JAN16
CK Low 2.15 10.79 396.461.72 10.46 384.34
CK High 2.20 10.84 398.301.85 10.59 389.12
CK Average 2.18 -0.5610.82 397.381.81 -0.9710.55 387.71
Essex Cty 2.20 10.84 398.301.85 10.59 389.12
Mdsx Low 2.13 10.77 395.731.70 10.44 383.60
Mdsx High 2.15 10.79 396.461.80 10.54 387.28
Mdsx Average 2.14 -0.6010.78 396.101.75 -1.0310.49 385.44
Hensall 2.18 10.82 397.381.80 10.54 387.28
Bruce 2.15 10.79 396.461.80 10.54 387.28
Putnam N/A 1.80 10.54 387.28
Burford 2.20 10.84 398.301.77 10.51 386.18
Port Perry 2.10 10.74 394.631.67 10.41 382.50
Norfolk 2.20 10.84 398.301.85 10.59 389.12
Palmerston 2.15 10.79 396.461.80 10.54 387.28
Varna 2.15 10.79 396.461.80 10.54 387.28
Trenton 2.15 10.79 396.461.70 10.44 383.60
Winchester 2.15 10.79 396.461.95 10.69 392.79
North Gower 2.17 10.81 397.202.01 10.75 394.99
Huron FOB 2.35 10.99 403.811.95 10.69 392.79
Kent FOB 2.20 10.84 398.301.85 10.59 389.12
Lambton FOB 2.20 10.84 398.301.85 10.59 389.12
Middlesex FOB2.34 2.41 N/A N/A 10.98 403.451.93 10.67 392.06
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.68 2.75 2.75 N/A 11.32 415.942.31 11.05 406.02
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.37 8.27 303.92-0.50 8.24 302.73
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3167 up 0.0003
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower to steady.
DEC15 HI 5.29 JUL16 HI 5.32 1/4
LOW 5.20 1/4 LOW 5.24
CLOSE 5.26 1/4 Unchanged CLOSE 5.27 1/2 Down 4 1/2
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC15 HI 5.22 SEP16 HI 5.57
LOW 5.14 3/4 LOW 5.53 1/2
CLOSE 5.16 1/4 Down 8 CLOSE 5.53 1/2 Down 9 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 3.51 1.27 1.27 0.71
CAD $/bu 8.77 6.53 6.53 5.88
CAD $/tonne 322.32 240.08 240.08 215.89
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A 0.90 0.45 N/A
London N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.32 0.93 0.40 N/A
Hensall 3.50 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.25 N/A 0.40 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.40 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.35 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Norwich 3.50 N/A 1.00 N/A 1.35 N/A 0.40 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 3.50 N/A 0.35 N/A 1.35 N/A 0.40 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.90 0.35 N/A N/A 0.95 0.45 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.35 N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.90 1.00 0.45 N/A 1.00 0.45 0.30
Varna 3.50 0.90 1.00 N/A 1.25 0.90 0.40 N/A
Mitchell 3.50 0.90 1.00 N/A 1.25 0.90 0.40 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.43 1.17 0.64 N/A 1.11 0.73 0.96
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 4.30N/A 1.93N/A 2.67N/A 1.68N/A
Toledo El. 5.43US 7.15CA 5.10US 6.72CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.68 1.35 0.82 1.04
CAD $/bu 6.95 6.62 6.10 6.57
CAD $/tonne 255.53 243.42 224.05 241.49
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat -
Bayport Oats -
Bayport Barley -
FOB Hm Soymeal 468.93
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 180.00 - 195.00
Grain Farmers of Ontario Weekly Market Commentary for Wednesday, November 4, 2015.
By Marty Hibbs, GFO
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.80 ↑ 04 cents
Soybeans CBOT Jan 8.79 ↓ 03 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.25 ↑ 22 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.24 ↑ 09 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 4.94 ↑ 05 cents
Chicago Oats Dec 2.26 ↓ 01 cents
Canadian $ Dec .7593 ↑ .25 points
CORN:
On the charts: Without sounding repetitious, the ascending trend-line on the December corn chart around $3.70 - $3.75 is holding quite nicely. A close below that level could see a move back to the recent bottom at $3.60. If, on the other hand, the trend line continues to be supportive, we could see a rally back to the $4 resistance level in the coming weeks. Looking at the bigger picture, we have major support at the $3.50 level and major overhead resistance is sitting between $4.20 - $4.40 on the lead month. Short term indicators are neutral, while the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
On the charts:
The January soybean chart shows a well-defined range between the $8.60 bottom support and the $9.40 weekly gap which represents the 40 per cent retracement. The weekly and monthly charts are not attractive as they show little support if the current $8.60 support line should fail. I still feel we need to revisit the gap on the weekly chart between $8.40 to $8.50 before we head lower if that is in the cards.
Overhead resistance on January is still at the $9.50 level while support is seen at the $8.60 level.
Short term indicators are neutral, while the main trend remains negative.
WHEAT:
On the charts:
I still feel that wheat is the best looking of the three grain charts. Our head and shoulder formation is looking strong and suggests future prices in the $5.50 and possibly as high as $5.80 before year end. Of course, nothing is for certain and the fundamentals tell a different story but the chart patterns suggest this is a possibility.
Meanwhile the support level is seen at $4.80 and again at $4.60 while major support levels are seen at the $4.50 level and overhead resistance in the range of $5.60 - $5.80 based on the December contract.
Although all indicators are still negative, we are getting into oversold territory and there are several support levels directly below recent bottoms. Indicators are still negative and the main trend is still down.
HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF 9 AM November 5, 2015
SWW @ $320.69/MT ($8.73/bu), HRW @ $238.34/MT ($6.49/bu),
HRS @ $217.51/MT ($5.92/bu), SRW @ $238.34/MT ($6.49/bu).
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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