[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report plus Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed May 27 15:22:02 EDT 2015


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, May 27
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2485 up 0.0055
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.

      JUL15   HI 3.56  1/2                    DEC15    HI 3.74  1/4
             LOW 3.48  3/4                            LOW 3.66
            CLOSE3.49  1/2  Down 5 1/2              CLOSE 3.66  3/4  Down 6 1/2

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt  Adj $/bu   $/mt Cntrct  Adj   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +JUL15+JUL15+SEP15
CK Low       0.50                        4.00 157.28  0.25         3.92 154.23
CK High      0.60                        4.10 161.21  0.25         3.92 154.23
CK Avg       0.57                  -0.30 4.06 159.90  0.25 -0.66   3.92 154.23
Essex Cty    0.64                        4.14 162.79  0.25         3.92 154.23
Mdsx Low     0.60                        4.10 161.21  0.25         3.92 154.23
Mdsx High    0.60                        4.10 161.21  0.25         3.92 154.23
Mdsx Avg     0.60                  -0.26 4.10 161.21  0.25 -0.66   3.92 154.23
Hensall      0.60                        4.10 161.21  0.30         3.97 156.19
Bruce        0.50                        4.00 157.28  0.25         3.92 154.23
Putnam       0.50                        4.00 157.28  0.15         3.82 150.29
Burford      0.60                        4.10 161.21  0.25         3.92 154.23
Port Perry   0.60                        4.10 161.21  0.25         3.92 154.23
Norfolk      0.60                        4.10 161.21  0.25         3.92 154.23
Palmerston   0.60                        4.10 161.21  0.25         3.92 154.23
Varna        0.60                        4.10 161.21  0.35         4.02 158.16
Trenton      0.80                        4.30 169.09  0.30         3.97 156.19
Winchester   0.90                        4.40 173.02  0.85         4.52 177.85
North Gower  1.09                        4.59 180.50  0.75         4.42 173.91
Huron FOB    0.68                        4.18 164.36  0.35         4.02 158.16
Kent FOB     0.60                        4.10 161.21  0.25         3.92 154.23
Lamb FOB     0.60                        4.10 161.21  0.25         3.92 154.23
Mdsx FOB     0.60  0.60  0.60  0.65      4.10 161.21  0.25         3.92 154.23
FOB SW Que  N/A                                     N/A
Track        0.95                        4.45 174.99N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      0.40         4.07 160.13
Sarn-Eth    N/A    0.75  0.80  0.85                 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                     N/A*
London-Ing  N/A  N/A     0.95  1.00                   0.55         4.22 166.04
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A   N/A     0.95                   0.55         4.22 166.04
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A     1.00                   0.80         4.47 175.88
W O Feed     1.09                   0.78 4.59 180.50

US Rep       1.18                   0.87 4.68 184.05
Toledo El.  -0.05                        3.45 135.63 -0.37         3.29 129.65

TRANSFER
Sarnia      N/A                                     N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A                                     N/A
Hamilton    N/A                                     N/A

MID SD CRN                                            0.25         3.91 3/4
HI SD CRN                                             0.25         3.91 3/4
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2485 up 0.0055
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.

       JUL15   HI 9.31  3/4           NOV15    HI 9.11  1/2
              LOW 9.22                        LOW 9.02
             CLOSE9.27   Up 4 1/2           CLOSE 9.06  1/2  Up 1 3/4

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt Adj.  $/bu  $/mt BasisAdj.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +JUL1+JUL1+AUG15
CK Low       1.75                     11.02 404.921.40      10.47 384.52
CK High      1.85                     11.12 408.591.55      10.62 390.03
CK Average   1.81                -0.4811.08 407.061.47 -0.7710.54 387.16
Essex Cty    2.08                     11.35 417.041.62      10.69 392.61
Mdsx Low     1.80                     11.07 406.751.42      10.49 385.26
Mdsx High    1.80                     11.07 406.751.50      10.57 388.20
Mdsx Average 1.80                -0.4911.07 406.751.46 -0.7810.53 386.73
Hensall      1.80                     11.07 406.751.45      10.52 386.36
Bruce        1.80                     11.07 406.751.50      10.57 388.20
Putnam       1.40                     10.67 392.061.10      10.17 373.50
Burford      1.83                     11.10 407.861.45      10.52 386.36
Port Perry   1.80                     11.07 406.751.42      10.49 385.26
Norfolk      1.85                     11.12 408.591.44      10.51 385.99
Palmerston   1.80                     11.07 406.751.45      10.52 386.36
Varna        1.80                     11.07 406.751.40      10.47 384.52
Trenton      1.73                     11.00 404.181.40      10.47 384.52
Winchester   1.79                     11.06 406.391.70      10.77 395.55
North Gower  1.60                     10.87 399.401.68      10.75 394.81
Huron FOB    1.90                     11.17 410.431.50      10.57 388.20
Kent FOB     1.80                     11.07 406.751.44      10.51 385.99
Lambton FOB  1.80                     11.07 406.751.44      10.51 385.99
Middlesex FOB2.00 2.00  N/A  N/A      11.27 414.101.62      10.69 392.61

PROCESSORS
Hamilton     2.35 2.36 2.43  N/A      11.62 426.961.96      11.03 405.10
Windsor      2.27 2.27 2.34  N/A      11.54 424.021.83      10.90 400.32
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton      N/A                                  N/A
Pt. Stanley   N/A                                  N/A
Sarnia        N/A                                  N/A
Owen Sound    N/A                                  N/A
Sorel QC      N/A                                  N/A

Toledo El.   0.00                      9.27 340.61-0.41      8.65 317.96


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2485 up 0.0055
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
JUL15      HI     4.96  1/4             JUL15   HI      4.96  1/4
           LOW        4.82                      LOW        4.82
           CLOSE  4.87  3/4  Down 5 3/4         CLOSE   4.87  3/4  Down 5 3/4

Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
JUL1515    HI     5.55  1/2             SEP15   HI      5.66  1/4
           LOW    5.40  1/2                     LOW     5.51  1/4
           CLOSE  5.45  3/4  Down 7 1/2         CLOSE   5.56  1/4  Down 8

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 2.77          1.77            0.96          0.91
CAD $/bu              7.64          6.65            5.83          6.37
CAD $/tonne         280.84        244.17          214.38        234.09


Direct MarkHarvest 2014                 Harvest 2015
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    0.50    N/A    N/A     1.35   0.65    N/A
London      2.81    1.43   0.69    N/A    2.83    1.46   0.67    N/A
Hensall     2.50    N/A    0.50    N/A    2.50    N/A    0.50    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.60    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A    0.70    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.77    N/A
Norwich     2.50    N/A    0.50    N/A    2.50    N/A    0.50    N/A
Mt. Elgin    N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Kent Bridge 2.50    N/A    0.50    N/A    2.50    N/A    0.50    N/A
Chatham      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     1.35   0.70    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.70    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.30   0.50   0.40    N/A     1.30   0.70   0.50
Varna       2.50    1.35   0.70    N/A    2.50    1.35   0.60    N/A
Mitchell    2.50    1.75   0.50    N/A    2.50    1.25   0.50    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.39    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A   1.15

TERMINAL
Sarnia       N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Hamilton     N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Pt. Stanley  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM     4.01N/A        1.46N/A    N/A     N/A        1.46N/A

Toledo El. 4.90US         6.11CA        4.95US          6.17CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 2.83          1.77            1.11          1.19
CAD $/bu              7.71          6.65            5.98          6.75
CAD $/tonne         283.13        244.17          219.88        248.07

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat             290.00
Bayport Oats              300.00
Bayport Barley            275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal            488.44 - 493.95
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm       215.00


Wednesday, May 27, 2015
COMMODITY	PERIOD	PRICE	WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT	July	3.49	↓	         10	cents
Soybeans CBOT	July	9.27	↓	15	cents
Wheat CBOT	July	4.88	↓	26	cents
Wheat Minn.	July	5.46	↓	22	cents
Wheat Kansas	July	5.12	↓	23	cents
 	 	 			 
Canadian $	June	.8015	↓	1.85	points



CORN:  
On May 24, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) progress report showed 92 per cent of corn fields were planted compared to 86 per cent at the same time last year. The percentage of emergence is 46 per cent compared to 51 per cent from the same reporting period in 2014.
On the charts:  While the July corn contract has been range-bound from $3.50 - $3.70 for the month of May, it is still in negative mode.  The only positive I see technically is the oversold condition could produce a short term bounce.  Support is seen at $3.50 then at $3.20.
All three indicators are negative.

SOYBEANS:
The USDA progress report showed soybeans at 61 per cent planted compared to 55 per cent at the same time last year. The percentage of emergence is 32 per cent compared to 23 per cent a year earlier.

On the charts:  The July soybean contract has continued its weakness during the entire month of May.  We are now once again approaching the all-important $9 level on the July contract, losing 75 cents per bushel on the Chicago contract during May.  A close below the $9 level would put severe pressure on prices and see a significant selloff.  A second possibility could see a run on stops below the $9 level and a move back to retest the $10 level in the coming weeks. Support is seen at the $9 level and resistance is at $10 - $10.25. Rallies should still be viewed as selling opportunities.



WHEAT:

The USDA surprised markets by keeping the proportion of domestic winter wheat rated as "good" or "excellent" at 45% as of May 24, despite the heavy rains which destroyed homes and caused some deaths in the southern Plains over the previous weekend.


On the charts:  Although all indicators are still negative and have been for quite some time, there seems to be a bottoming action that will eventually lead to a sustained rally in the wheat crop.  The range-bound crop seems to be comfortable in the $4.50-$5.50 range on the lead month contract.  Initially there is support at the $4.50 level and again at $4.25 before hitting the major trend line at $4.  To sustain a rally and turn this market, I feel we would need a close above the $5.30 level based on the lead month contract.  Until then we need to treat this market as the charts insist, bearish. All indicators are still negative continuing the multi-year slide. 


2014 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE May 27, 2015

SWW @ $281.12/mt ($7.65/bu), SRW @ $214.62/mt ($5.84/bu),
HRW @ $244.43/mt ($6.65/bu), HRS @ $234.34/mt ($6.38/bu).


Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 


-- 
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink 
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