[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Mar 4 15:47:26 EST 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, March 4
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.244 down 0.0012
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
MAY15 HI 3.92 DEC15 HI 4.17
LOW 3.86 1/4 LOW 4.10 1/2
CLOSE3.89 1/2 Down 1 1/2 CLOSE 4.13 3/4 Down 2 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY15+JUL15+JUL15
CK Low 0.75 4.65 182.87 0.40 4.54 178.63
CK High 0.80 4.70 184.83 0.40 4.54 178.63
CK Avg 0.76 -0.19 4.65 183.19 0.40 -0.61 4.54 178.63
Essex Cty 0.76 4.66 183.26 0.38 4.52 177.85
Mdsx Low 0.75 4.65 182.87 0.40 4.54 178.63
Mdsx High 0.75 4.65 182.87 0.40 4.54 178.63
Mdsx Avg 0.75 -0.20 4.65 182.87 0.40 -0.61 4.54 178.63
Hensall 0.75 4.65 182.87 0.40 4.54 178.63
Bruce 0.75 4.65 182.87 0.40 4.54 178.63
Putnam 0.75 4.65 182.87 0.40 4.54 178.63
Burford 0.75 4.65 182.87 0.40 4.54 178.63
Port Perry 0.75 4.65 182.87 0.40 4.54 178.63
Norfolk 0.75 4.65 182.87 0.40 4.54 178.63
Palmerston 0.80 4.70 184.83 0.40 4.54 178.63
Varna 0.75 4.65 182.87 0.40 4.54 178.63
Trenton 0.90 4.80 188.77 0.60 4.74 186.51
Winchester 1.00 4.90 192.71 1.00 5.14 202.25
North Gower 0.95 4.85 190.74 0.90 5.04 198.32
Huron FOB 0.85 4.75 186.80 0.40 4.54 178.63
Kent FOB 0.75 4.65 182.87 0.40 4.54 178.63
Lamb FOB 0.75 4.65 182.87 0.40 4.54 178.63
Mdsx FOB 0.80 0.85 0.85 0.90 4.70 184.83 0.40 4.54 178.63
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.15 5.05 198.61N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.70 4.84 190.44
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.90 5.04 198.32
Aylmer-Eth N/A 0.85 0.85 0.90 N/A
Sarn-Eth 1.00 1.00 1.00N/A 4.90 192.71N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.10 1.25 0.70 4.84 190.44
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.70 4.84 190.44
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.10 1.12 0.85 4.99 196.35
W O Feed 1.21 0.91 5.11 201.13
US Rep 1.35 1.05 5.25 206.49
Toledo El. -0.16 3.73 146.98 -0.47 3.67 144.29
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.77 1/2 4.67
HI SD CRN 0.80 4.69 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.244 down 0.0012
Chicago soybeans closed moderately lower.
MAY15 HI 10.14 1/4 NOV15 HI 9.89 1/2
LOW 9.93 LOW 9.71 1/2
CLOSE9.94 Down 18 1/4 CLOSE 9.72 3/4 Down 15
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY1+MAY1+AUG15
CK Low 1.80 11.74 431.371.55 11.28 414.38
CK High 1.90 11.84 435.051.65 11.38 418.05
CK Average 1.83 -0.5911.77 432.291.60 -0.7711.32 416.09
Essex Cty 1.83 11.77 432.471.73 11.46 420.99
Mdsx Low 1.78 11.72 430.641.55 11.28 414.38
Mdsx High 1.80 11.74 431.371.58 11.31 415.48
Mdsx Average 1.79 -0.6311.73 431.001.57 -0.8011.29 414.93
Hensall 1.83 11.77 432.291.58 11.30 415.30
Bruce 1.80 11.74 431.371.55 11.28 414.38
Putnam 1.80 11.74 431.371.55 11.28 414.38
Burford 1.81 11.75 431.741.61 11.34 416.58
Port Perry 1.78 11.72 430.641.58 11.31 415.48
Norfolk 1.80 11.74 431.371.58 11.31 415.48
Palmerston 1.85 11.79 433.211.60 11.33 416.21
Varna 1.85 11.79 433.211.60 11.33 416.21
Trenton 1.80 11.74 431.371.55 11.28 414.38
Winchester 2.00 11.94 438.721.90 11.63 427.24
North Gower 2.04 11.98 440.191.84 11.57 425.03
Huron FOB 2.00 11.94 438.721.70 11.43 419.89
Kent FOB 1.80 11.74 431.371.58 11.31 415.48
Lambton FOB 1.80 11.74 431.371.58 11.31 415.48
Middlesex FOB1.79 1.92 1.99 N/A 11.73 431.0014.67 24.40 896.45
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.29 2.42 2.49 N/A 12.23 449.382.12 11.85 435.32
Windsor 2.04 2.17 2.19 2.27 11.98 440.191.94 11.67 428.71
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.10 9.84 361.58-0.41 9.32 342.35
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.244 down 0.0012
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
MAY15 HI 5.06 JUL15 HI 5.10
LOW 4.94 LOW 5.00
CLOSE 4.96 Down 10 CLOSE 5.03 Down 6 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
MAY15 HI 5.70 1/4 SEP15 HI 5.81
LOW 5.60 LOW 5.73 1/4
CLOSE 5.65 3/4 Down 5 CLOSE 5.78 1/4 Down 4 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.08 1.64 1.14 0.88
CAD $/bu 7.04 6.60 6.10 6.54
CAD $/tonne 258.57 242.58 224.31 240.18
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.20 N/A N/A 1.25 0.81 N/A
London 2.12 1.37 1.12 N/A 1.16 1.28 0.65 N/A
Hensall 2.20 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.30 N/A 0.70 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.00
Essex N/A N/A 1.17 N/A N/A N/A 0.73 N/A
Norwich 2.20 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.40 N/A 0.80 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 2.20 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.40 N/A 0.70 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A 1.10 N/A N/A 1.25 0.65 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.10 N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.75 1.10 0.60 N/A 1.40 0.70 0.35
Varna 2.10 1.75 1.15 N/A 1.25 1.25 0.65 N/A
Mitchell 2.20 1.80 1.20 N/A 1.30 1.30 0.70 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.17 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.15
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 3.44N/A 1.46N/A N/A N/A 1.47N/A
Toledo El. 5.08US 6.32CA 5.10US 6.34CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.22 1.72 0.91 1.10
CAD $/bu 6.25 6.75 5.94 6.88
CAD $/tonne 229.79 248.06 218.37 252.75
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00
Bayport Oats 300.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 525.92
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 260.00 - 265.00
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT May 3.89 ↑ 5 cents
Soybeans CBOT May 9.94 ↓ 15 cents
Wheat CBOT May 4.96 ↓ 1 cents
Wheat Minn. May 5.66 ↑ 9 cents
Wheat Kansas May 5.27 ↓ 4 cents
Canadian $ June .8039 ↑ .001 points
CORN:
The market was nervous and settled lower March 3rd and 4th on rumors of an Argentine farmers’ strike and projected reduction in Brazilian corn production. A lack of producer selling seems to be providing support.
On the charts: This week we saw more of the same -- a restricted trading range. Corn for all accounts has been in a $3.75-$4.00 range since last October. To make matters worse, there are no indicators that are in agreement. We have a short term neutral trend coupled with a mid-term uptrend complimented with a long term downtrend. I guess the bottom line is to go with the long term trend until we have reasons to believe otherwise. The March 31st USDA report is expected to give us a clear direction, once the dust settles after the report is digested.
SOYBEANS:
Corn and soybean futures will tend to feed off each other as the US spring sowing period approaches, given that both crops are key competitors for acres, and relative pricing will determine to a large extent how much of each is planted.
On the charts: The soybean chart has been in a sideways pattern since August of 2014. The downtrend line cuts across at the $10.35-10.50 price, on the lead month contract. This resistance was tested and failed on March 2nd causing prices to tumble. Our short term indicators are almost as volatile as the actual markets, flashing false signals almost daily. To get a rally started I feel we would have to clear the $10.50-10.75 price barrier based on the lead month contract. But I don’t believe we will see that move with the USDA report due out on March 31. Indicators are neutral on the day and weekly chart but the main trend is still down.
WHEAT:
Fundamentally speaking, US wheat is unable to compete internationally at prices above $5 in light of the directional strength of the US dollar recently. Given today’s markets there is little upside potential for US wheat, however, we all know that the obvious is never as simple as that and some other surprise could likely prove that theory wrong.
On the charts: Looking at the 10 year chart, we see a very well defined trend line that suggests a major support area between $4.70 - $5.00 based on the lead month contract. This also coincides with a weekly double bottom in the same range. Add to that the oversold indicators and the likelihood of March 31st report to cause some volatility, we could be looking at this area as a possible bottom for the year. Remember that this is technical analysis and that nothing is a guarantee. For the time being, all three indicators are still negative thus confirming that this downtrend still remains intact.
2014 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE March 4, 2015
SWW @ $258.38/mt ($7.03/bu), SRW @ $224.14/mt ($6.10/bu),
HRW @ $242.40/mt ($6.60/bu), HRS @ $240.12/mt ($6.54/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
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University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
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