[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report Plus Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jun 17 15:41:58 EDT 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, June 17
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2308 down 0.0022
Chicago corn closed moderately higher.
JUL15 HI 3.61 1/4 DEC15 HI 3.76 3/4
LOW 3.53 3/4 LOW 3.70
CLOSE3.59 1/4 Up 5 1/4 CLOSE 3.75 Up 5
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP15+SEP15+DEC15
CK Low 0.55 4.14 163.08 0.20 3.95 155.50
CK High 0.60 4.19 165.05 0.35 4.10 161.41
CK Avg 0.56 -0.25 4.15 163.41 0.23 -0.62 3.98 156.49
Essex Cty 0.60 4.19 165.05 0.24 3.99 157.08
Mdsx Low 0.55 4.14 163.08 0.20 3.95 155.50
Mdsx High 0.55 4.14 163.08 0.30 4.05 159.44
Mdsx Avg 0.55 -0.26 4.14 163.08 0.25 -0.60 4.00 157.47
Hensall 0.55 4.14 163.08 0.25 4.00 157.47
Bruce 0.55 4.14 163.08 0.20 3.95 155.50
Putnam 0.55 4.14 163.08 0.20 3.95 155.50
Burford 0.55 4.14 163.08 0.20 3.95 155.50
Port Perry 0.65 4.24 167.02 0.25 4.00 157.47
Norfolk 0.55 4.14 163.08 0.20 3.95 155.50
Palmerston 0.55 4.14 163.08 0.20 3.95 155.50
Varna 0.55 4.14 163.08 0.30 4.05 159.44
Trenton 0.85 4.44 174.89 0.40 4.15 163.38
Winchester 1.00 4.59 180.80 0.85 4.60 181.09
North Gower 1.00 4.59 180.80N/A
Huron FOB 0.65 4.24 167.02 0.30 4.05 159.44
Kent FOB 0.55 4.14 163.08 0.20 3.95 155.50
Lamb FOB 0.55 4.14 163.08 0.20 3.95 155.50
Mdsx FOB 0.55 0.55 0.60N/A 4.14 163.08 0.25 4.00 157.47
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.00 4.59 180.80N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.50 4.25 167.32
Sarn-Eth 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.85 4.29 168.99N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.10 1.05 0.65 4.40 173.22
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.00 1.05 1.05 0.65 4.40 173.22
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.15 1.30 0.95 4.70 185.03
W O Feed 1.07 0.79 4.67 183.71
US Rep 1.15 0.87 4.74 186.70
Toledo El. -0.05 3.54 139.50 -0.37 3.38 133.15
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.27 1/2 4.02 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.35 4.101
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2308 down 0.0022
Chicago soybeans closed slightly to moderately higher.
JUL15 HI 9.72 NOV15 HI 9.42 3/4
LOW 9.57 1/2 LOW 9.27 1/2
CLOSE9.69 Up 11 1/2 CLOSE 9.39 3/4 Up 12 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+AUG1+NOV15
CK Low 1.68 11.37 417.781.40 10.80 396.74
CK High 1.75 11.44 420.351.45 10.85 398.58
CK Average 1.71 -0.4911.40 418.691.41 -0.7210.81 397.11
Essex Cty 1.84 11.53 423.651.54 10.94 401.88
Mdsx Low 1.68 11.37 417.781.39 10.79 396.37
Mdsx High 1.70 11.39 418.511.40 10.80 396.74
Mdsx Average 1.69 -0.5011.38 418.141.40 -0.7310.79 396.56
Hensall 1.70 11.39 418.511.40 10.80 396.74
Bruce 1.65 11.34 416.671.35 10.75 394.90
Putnam 1.65 11.34 416.671.35 10.75 394.90
Burford 1.71 11.40 418.881.42 10.82 397.48
Port Perry 1.68 11.37 417.781.39 10.79 396.37
Norfolk 1.70 11.39 418.511.40 10.80 396.74
Palmerston 1.65 11.34 416.671.35 10.75 394.90
Varna 1.70 11.39 418.511.40 10.80 396.74
Trenton 1.65 11.34 416.671.35 10.75 394.90
Winchester 1.60 11.29 414.841.60 11.00 404.09
North Gower 1.54 11.23 412.631.65 11.05 405.93
Huron FOB 1.80 11.49 422.191.50 10.90 400.41
Kent FOB 1.70 11.39 418.511.40 10.80 396.74
Lambton FOB 1.70 11.39 418.511.40 10.80 396.74
Middlesex FOB1.85 1.97 2.13 N/A 11.54 424.021.56 10.96 402.62
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.23 2.36 2.52 N/A 11.92 437.991.88 11.28 414.38
Windsor 2.06 2.19 2.36 1.93 11.75 431.741.76 11.16 409.97
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. 0.09 9.78 359.20-0.40 8.99 330.43
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2308 down 0.0022
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
JUL15 HI 4.99 3/4 JUL15 HI 4.99 3/4
LOW 4.89 3/4 LOW 4.89 3/4
CLOSE 4.91 1/4 Up 2 1/2 CLOSE 4.91 1/4 Up 2 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
JUL1515 HI 5.58 SEP15 HI 5.66 1/2
LOW 5.46 3/4 LOW 5.56
CLOSE 5.47 3/4 Up 1/4 CLOSE 5.57 1/4 Up 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.64 1.66 0.87 0.81
CAD $/bu 7.56 6.58 5.78 6.29
CAD $/tonne 277.66 241.62 212.33 231.03
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.35 0.65 N/A
London 2.73 1.38 0.64 N/A 2.75 1.39 0.62 N/A
Hensall 2.70 N/A 0.65 N/A 2.70 N/A 0.65 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.70 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.56 N/A N/A N/A 0.57 N/A
Norwich 2.70 N/A 0.65 N/A 2.70 N/A 0.65 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 2.70 N/A 0.65 N/A 2.70 N/A 0.65 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.35 0.65 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.35 0.65 0.40 N/A 1.50 0.70 0.50
Varna 2.70 1.40 0.70 N/A 2.70 1.40 0.70 N/A
Mitchell 2.70 1.85 0.65 N/A 2.70 1.35 0.65 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.34 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.11
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 3.87N/A 1.36N/A N/A N/A 1.36N/A
Toledo El. 4.93US 6.05CA 4.98US 6.11CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.71 1.66 1.01 1.08
CAD $/bu 7.62 6.58 5.93 6.65
CAD $/tonne 279.91 241.62 217.74 244.32
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00
Bayport Oats 300.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 515.56 - 527.69
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 215.00 - 220.00
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT July 3.59 ↑ 2 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 9.69 ↑ 19 cents
Wheat CBOT July 4.91 ↓ 22 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.48 ↓ 19 cents
Wheat Kansas July 5.05 ↓ 26 cents
Canadian $ Sep .8126 ↑ 0.76 points
CORN:
The overall condition of the U.S corn crop is holding steady. Ninety-seven per cent of the corn crop has now emerged, which is two points ahead of average pace. All of this year’s corn crop in Illinois and North Carolina has now emerged and other states are close behind.
On the charts: The corn contract continues its slow steady slide as the charts appear to build support only to break it on the re-test. The pace of the slide has slowed and the indicators are somewhat oversold. This, however, is not a reason to expect higher prices. I would expect a selloff and a quick rebound before we have a reason to get excited. All indicators point downward. Initial support is seen at $3.50 with major support seen at the $3.20 level on the weekly chart.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean planting continues in all major soybean planting states for an overall completion rate of 87%, three points behind average. This is raising some concerns about a substantial portion of soybean acres unplanted as of Sunday, June 14. Adding to this are some sharp early ratings declines for other areas. Wet weather is also becoming a concern with forecasts showing more of the same for the foreseeable future.
On the charts: With the concern over planting progress and the weather forecast, we saw the lead month in beans react with a 35 cent rally between June 14 and June 17 or 50 cents since June 1. This alone is not enough to change the chart signals, but it is enough to turn our short term indicators from negative to neutral. We continue to trade in the $9 to $10 range on the lead month contract and until we break out of this pattern, the downtrend is still intact. The overhead resistance is still seen at $9.70 and again at $10 on the lead month contract.
Short term indicators are neutral but the main trend still down. A close above the $10 level on the lead month is needed to get something going on the upside.
WHEAT:
The 2016 Initial payments for the Grain Farmers of Ontario wheat pool landed basis are as follows:
Pool A (SWW) $147.00
Pool B (HRW) $150.00
Pool C (HRS) $164.00
Pool E (SRW) $140.00
Pool G (Feed) $120.00.
On the charts: It was a losing week on the wheat with the July contract losing about 45 cents per bushel. Initial support is seen at $4.80 and $4.60 with overhead resistance still at our $5.50 target. All indicators still point down.
HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE June 17, 2015
SWW @ $278.47/MT ($7.58/bu), HRW @ $242.30/MT ($6.59/bu),
HRS @ $231.90/MT ($6.31/bu), SRW @ $212.92/MT ($5.79/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
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University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
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