[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jun 10 15:17:21 EDT 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, June 10
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2267 down 0.0050
Chicago corn closed moderately lower.
JUL15 HI 3.66 1/2 DEC15 HI 3.84 1/2
LOW 3.56 3/4 LOW 3.74 3/4
CLOSE3.57 1/4 Down 7 3/4 CLOSE 3.75 1/4 Down 7 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP15+SEP15+DEC15
CK Low 0.55 4.12 162.30 0.20 3.95 155.60
CK High 0.60 4.17 164.26 0.35 4.10 161.51
CK Avg 0.58 -0.24 4.15 163.41 0.25 -0.61 4.00 157.37
Essex Cty 0.60 4.17 164.26 0.25 4.00 157.57
Mdsx Low 0.55 4.12 162.30 0.20 3.95 155.60
Mdsx High 0.60 4.17 164.26 0.35 4.10 161.51
Mdsx Avg 0.58 -0.24 4.15 163.28 0.28 -0.58 4.03 158.56
Hensall 0.59 4.16 163.87 0.29 4.04 159.15
Bruce 0.60 4.17 164.26 0.25 4.00 157.57
Putnam 0.60 4.17 164.26 0.25 4.00 157.57
Burford 0.55 4.12 162.30 0.20 3.95 155.60
Port Perry 0.65 4.22 166.23 0.25 4.00 157.57
Norfolk 0.57 4.14 163.08 0.22 3.97 156.39
Palmerston 0.60 4.17 164.26 0.25 4.00 157.57
Varna 0.58 4.15 163.48 0.33 4.08 160.72
Trenton 0.85 4.42 174.11 0.40 4.15 163.48
Winchester 1.00 4.57 180.01 0.85 4.60 181.19
North Gower 1.00 4.57 180.01 0.75 4.50 177.26
Huron FOB 0.65 4.22 166.23 0.35 4.10 161.51
Kent FOB 0.57 4.14 163.08 0.22 3.97 156.39
Lamb FOB 0.57 4.14 163.08 0.22 3.97 156.39
Mdsx FOB 0.55 0.55 0.60N/A 4.12 162.30 0.25 4.00 157.57
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.03 4.60 181.00N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.50 4.25 167.41
Sarn-Eth 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.85 4.27 168.20N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A 1.05 1.10 1.05 0.65 4.40 173.32
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.00 1.05 1.05 0.75 4.50 177.26
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 1.15 1.30 0.95 4.70 185.13
W O Feed 1.11 0.83 4.68 184.34
US Rep 1.25 0.97 4.82 189.85
Toledo El. -0.05 3.52 138.71 -0.37 3.38 133.23
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.27 1/2 4.02 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.35 4.10 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2267 down 0.0050
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
JUL15 HI 9.57 3/4 NOV15 HI 9.31 3/4
LOW 9.44 1/2 LOW 9.18
CLOSE9.49 1/2 Down 2 CLOSE 9.21 3/4 Down 3 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+AUG1+NOV15
CK Low 1.62 11.12 408.411.30 10.52 386.45
CK High 1.70 11.20 411.351.40 10.62 390.13
CK Average 1.66 -0.5011.16 409.941.36 -0.7410.58 388.60
Essex Cty 1.80 11.30 415.021.47 10.69 392.70
Mdsx Low 1.62 11.12 408.411.28 10.50 385.72
Mdsx High 1.65 11.15 409.511.35 10.57 388.29
Mdsx Average 1.64 -0.5311.13 408.961.32 -0.7910.53 387.00
Hensall 1.65 11.15 409.511.35 10.57 388.29
Bruce 1.65 11.15 409.511.50 10.72 393.80
Putnam N/A 1.50 10.72 393.80
Burford 1.65 11.15 409.511.31 10.53 386.82
Port Perry 1.62 11.12 408.411.28 10.50 385.72
Norfolk 1.65 11.15 409.511.35 10.57 388.29
Palmerston 1.65 11.15 409.511.35 10.57 388.29
Varna 1.65 11.15 409.511.35 10.57 388.29
Trenton 1.75 11.25 413.181.40 10.62 390.13
Winchester 1.51 11.01 404.361.47 10.69 392.70
North Gower 1.38 10.88 399.591.54 10.76 395.27
Huron FOB 1.75 11.25 413.181.45 10.67 391.96
Kent FOB 1.65 11.15 409.511.35 10.57 388.29
Lambton FOB 1.65 11.15 409.511.35 10.57 388.29
Middlesex FOB1.82 1.88 1.88 N/A 11.32 415.761.48 10.70 393.07
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.14 2.26 N/A N/A 11.64 427.511.80 11.02 404.82
Windsor 2.02 2.11 2.26 N/A 11.52 423.101.69 10.91 400.78
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. 0.05 9.54 350.69-0.41 8.81 323.79
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2267 down 0.0050
Chicago wheat closed lower.
JUL15 HI 5.37 1/2 JUL15 HI 5.37 1/2
LOW 5.12 1/2 LOW 5.12 1/2
CLOSE 5.13 1/2 Down 18 3/4 CLOSE 5.13 1/2 Down 18 3/4
Minni wheat closed lower.
JUL1515 HI 5.87 3/4 SEP15 HI 5.97 1/2
LOW 5.65 1/4 LOW 5.75 1/4
CLOSE 5.67 Down 15 3/4 CLOSE 5.77 Down 16
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.71 1.72 0.93 0.86
CAD $/bu 7.84 6.86 6.06 6.53
CAD $/tonne 288.11 252.01 222.68 240.05
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.35 0.65 N/A
London 2.75 1.41 0.67 N/A 2.77 1.42 0.65 N/A
Hensall 2.70 N/A 0.65 N/A 2.70 N/A 0.65 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.75 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.54 N/A N/A N/A 0.54 N/A
Norwich 2.70 N/A 0.65 N/A 2.70 N/A 0.65 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 2.70 N/A 0.65 N/A 2.70 N/A 0.65 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.35 0.65 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.35 0.75 0.40 N/A 1.50 0.80 0.50
Varna 2.70 1.35 0.65 N/A 2.70 1.35 0.65 N/A
Mitchell 2.70 1.85 0.65 N/A 2.70 1.35 0.65 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.43 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.21
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 3.93N/A 1.42N/A N/A N/A 1.42N/A
Toledo El. 5.16US 6.33CA 5.21US 6.39CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.77 1.72 1.07 1.13
CAD $/bu 7.90 6.86 6.21 6.90
CAD $/tonne 290.37 252.01 228.10 253.59
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00
Bayport Oats 300.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 505.31 - 517.43
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 220.00 - 225.00
--
Wednesday, June 10, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT July 3.57 ↓ 2 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 9.50 ↑ 15 cents
Wheat CBOT July 5.13 ↑ 2 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.67 ↑ 4 cents
Wheat Kansas July 5.31 ↑ 3 cents
Canadian $ Sep .8042 ↑ 1.20 points
CORN:
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) monthly report for June 10 showed a change to the U.S. balance table with a 25-million bushel decrease for 2014/2015 corn use for ethanol. Global production is up 3MMT for 2014/2015 with old-crop carryout up 4.5 MMT, and overall stocks up 3.25 MMT.
On the charts: corn’s initial response to the somewhat negative report was slightly supportive as the July contract hit an intraday high of $3.66 ½ within minutes of the report but retreated after the news was digested. The July contract closed at $3.57. Initial support is seen at $3.50 to $3.55.
All three indicators are still negative.
SOYBEANS:
The USDA sees the U.S. 2014/2015 carryout at 330 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectations of 339 million bushels, and compared with the USDA’s May estimate of 350 million bushels. For new crop, the U.S. soybean carryout is 475 million bushels vs. the trade’s estimate of 487 million bushels, and the USDA’s May estimate of 500 million bushels.
On the charts: the neutral to slightly bullish report was a non-event for chart watchers as the July contract was confined to a 13 cent range for the day. There is a noticeable edging higher movement since the June 1 low of $9.22 which is now our support level on the July contract. The overhead resistance is still seen at $10 on the lead month contract.
All indicators remain negative.
WHEAT:
Improved prospects were seen for the [U.S.] hard red winter wheat crop in the central Plains following late season rains. This weather, coupled with an increase of 34m bushels, to 2.12m bushels, in the USDA’s estimate for the domestic wheat harvest, led to the slide in wheat futures after the monthly WASDE report from June 10.
On the charts: with a better than 65 cent rally since the first of June, we came within 13 cents of our $5.50 target to challenge the trend but the report was the undoing of the price advance as we slipped and closed the session near the lows of $5.12 on the July contract. At this time, we will need considerable more work to stabilize prices before the next advance. The charts remain constructive and I am hopeful that we will ultimately challenge the $5.50 level in the coming weeks. Support is seen at the $4.85- $5 area and again at $4.60. As we have repeated many times in the past year, the trend is still down and should be treated as such until it tells us otherwise.
2014 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE June 10, 2015
SWW @ $288.15/MT ($7.84/bu), SRW @ $222.71/MT ($6.06/bu),
HRW @ $252.04/MT ($6.86/bu), HRS @ $240.08/MT ($6.53/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
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