[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report + Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jul 8 15:29:16 EDT 2015


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, July 8
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2727 down 0.0013
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.

      SEP15   HI 4.29                         DEC15    HI 4.38  1/2
             LOW 4.18  1/2                            LOW 4.28  1/4
            CLOSE4.24  1/2  Up 1 1/4                CLOSE 4.34  1/4  Up 1 1/4

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt  Adj $/bu   $/mt Cntrct  Adj   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +SEP15+DEC15+DEC15
CK Low       0.55                        4.80 188.77  0.35         4.69 184.74
CK High      0.55                        4.80 188.77  0.35         4.69 184.74
CK Avg       0.55                  -0.62 4.80 188.77  0.35 -0.84   4.69 184.74
Essex Cty    0.55                        4.80 188.77  0.40         4.74 186.70
Mdsx Low     0.55                        4.80 188.77  0.35         4.69 184.74
Mdsx High    0.55                        4.80 188.77  0.40         4.74 186.70
Mdsx Avg     0.55                  -0.62 4.80 188.77  0.38 -0.82   4.72 185.72
Hensall      0.55                        4.80 188.77  0.38         4.72 185.72
Bruce        0.55                        4.80 188.77  0.35         4.69 184.74
Putnam       0.50                        4.75 186.80  0.25         4.59 180.80
Burford      0.55                        4.80 188.77  0.35         4.69 184.74
Port Perry   0.65                        4.90 192.71  0.40         4.74 186.70
Norfolk      0.55                        4.80 188.77  0.35         4.69 184.74
Palmerston   0.55                        4.80 188.77  0.35         4.69 184.74
Varna        0.55                        4.80 188.77  0.40         4.74 186.70
Trenton      0.75                        5.00 196.64  0.50         4.84 190.64
Winchester   1.05                        5.30 208.45  0.90         5.24 206.39
North Gower  1.15                        5.40 212.39  0.85         5.19 204.42
Huron FOB    0.83                        5.08 199.79  0.40         4.74 186.70
Kent FOB     0.55                        4.80 188.77  0.35         4.69 184.74
Lamb FOB     0.55                        4.80 188.77  0.35         4.69 184.74
Mdsx FOB     0.65  0.65N/A   N/A         4.90 192.71  0.35         4.69 184.74
FOB SW Que  N/A                                     N/A
Track        0.95                        5.20 204.52N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      0.60         4.94 194.58
Sarn-Eth     0.80  0.80  0.85N/A         5.05 198.61N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                     N/A*
London-Ing  N/A    1.05  1.10  1.15                   0.75         5.09 200.48
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      0.75         5.09 200.48
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A     1.30  1.30                   1.00         5.34 210.32
W O Feed     1.09                   0.74 5.34 210.03

US Rep       1.10                   0.75 5.35 210.42
Toledo El.  -0.04                        4.21 165.61 -0.33         4.01 157.90

TRANSFER
Sarnia      N/A                                     N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A                                     N/A
Hamilton    N/A                                     N/A

MID SD CRN                                            0.35         4.69 1/4
HI SD CRN                                             0.35         4.69 1/4
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2727 down 0.0013
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.

       AUG15   HI 10.08               NOV15    HI 9.99  1/4
              LOW 9.87  1/4                   LOW 9.78  3/4
             CLOSE9.96  3/4  Up 4 3/4       CLOSE 9.88  1/4  Up 2 1/2

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt Adj.  $/bu  $/mt BasisAdj.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +AUG1+NOV1+NOV15
CK Low       2.15                     12.12 445.241.80      11.68 429.26
CK High      2.25                     12.22 448.921.95      11.83 434.77
CK Average   2.20                -0.5512.16 446.961.88 -0.8411.76 432.20
Essex Cty    2.54                     12.51 459.572.07      11.95 439.18
Mdsx Low     2.18                     12.15 446.341.85      11.73 431.10
Mdsx High    2.20                     12.17 447.081.86      11.74 431.46
Mdsx Average 2.19                -0.5512.16 446.711.86 -0.8611.74 431.28
Hensall      2.20                     12.17 447.081.85      11.73 431.10
Bruce        2.20                     12.17 447.081.85      11.73 431.10
Putnam       2.05                     12.02 441.571.70      11.58 425.58
Burford      2.21                     12.18 447.451.89      11.77 432.57
Port Perry   2.18                     12.15 446.341.86      11.74 431.46
Norfolk      2.20                     12.17 447.081.90      11.78 432.93
Palmerston   2.20                     12.17 447.081.90      11.78 432.93
Varna        2.20                     12.17 447.081.85      11.73 431.10
Trenton      2.10                     12.07 443.401.85      11.73 431.10
Winchester   2.13                     12.10 444.512.15      12.03 442.12
North Gower  2.00                     11.97 439.732.04      11.92 438.08
Huron FOB    2.32                     12.29 451.491.95      11.83 434.77
Kent FOB     2.20                     12.17 447.081.90      11.78 432.93
Lambton FOB  2.20                     12.17 447.081.90      11.78 432.93
Middlesex FOB2.32 2.52  N/A  N/A      12.29 451.492.12      12.00 441.02

PROCESSORS
Hamilton     2.68 2.88  N/A  N/A      12.65 464.722.48      12.36 454.24
Windsor      2.75 2.75 2.67  N/A      12.72 467.292.28      12.16 446.90
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton      N/A                                  N/A
Pt. Stanley   N/A                                  N/A
Sarnia        N/A                                  N/A
Owen Sound    N/A                                  N/A
Sorel QC      N/A                                  N/A

Toledo El.   0.32                     10.29 377.96-0.42      9.46 347.66


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2727 down 0.0013
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
SEP15      HI     5.88  1/4             JUL16   HI         6.01
           LOW        5.73                      LOW     5.89  1/2
           CLOSE  5.77  1/2  Down 7 3/4         CLOSE   5.90  1/2  Down 9 1/2

Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
SEP15      HI     6.28  1/4             SEP16   HI      6.42  1/4
           LOW    6.13  1/2                     LOW        6.40
           CLOSE  6.19   Down 4 1/2             CLOSE   6.42  1/4  Down  1/2

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 3.12          2.04            1.33          1.38
CAD $/bu              8.89          7.81            7.11          7.57
CAD $/tonne         326.81        286.99          261.22        278.32


Direct MarkHarvest 2015                 Harvest 2016
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    1.50   0.90    N/A    N/A     1.30   0.55    N/A
London      3.25    1.53   0.89    N/A    1.57    1.32   0.55    N/A
Hensall     3.10    N/A    0.85    N/A    1.75    N/A    0.55    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A    0.85    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.55    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A    0.80    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.55    N/A
Norwich     3.35    N/A    0.85    N/A    1.75    N/A    0.55    N/A
Mt. Elgin    N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Kent Bridge 3.35    N/A    0.85    N/A    1.75    N/A    0.55    N/A
Chatham      N/A    1.50   0.90    N/A    N/A     1.30   0.60    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.90    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.60    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.45   0.90   0.60    N/A     1.40   0.55   0.20
Varna       3.20    1.50   0.90    N/A    1.80    1.30   0.60    N/A
Mitchell    3.10    1.45   0.85    N/A    1.75    1.30   0.55    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    2.18   1.52   1.52    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

TERMINAL
Sarnia       N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Hamilton     N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Pt. Stanley  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM     4.78N/A        1.97N/A        4.94N/A        1.88N/A

Toledo El. 5.85US         7.45CA        5.73US          7.30CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.62          1.75            1.11          1.00
CAD $/bu              7.53          7.66            7.02          7.42
CAD $/tonne         276.68        281.36          257.94        272.81

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat             290.00 - 320.00
Bayport Oats              270.00
Bayport Barley            275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal            538.82 - 545.43
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm      200.00 - 205.00


Wednesday, July 8, 2015
COMMODITY	PERIOD	PRICE	WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT	Sep	4.24	↓	         5	cents
Soybeans CBOT	Sep	9.88	↓	75	cents
Wheat CBOT	Sep	5.77	↓	11	cents
Wheat Minn.	Sep	6.21	↓	01	cents
Wheat Kansas	Sep	5.83	↓	09	cents
 	 	 			 
Canadian $	Sep	.7955	↓	-0.99	points



CORN:  
As of July 5th, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated corn crop conditions in the United States  at 69% as “Excellent” or “Good,” a 1% increase from last week and a 6% decrease from last year.  8% was rated as “Poor” or “Very Poor”, a 3% increase from last week.
On the charts:  Corn like the rest of the grains have benefited from the June 30 report and like the other grains have stalled.  With just two days to go before the next WASDE report (July 10) we have not rallied enough to change the actual trend. Both short and medium term indicators have turned positive but the main trend remains down. Support on the September corn contract sits at the $4.00 area and again at 3.80-3.90. A close above the $4.30 level could renew upside pressure on prices.
SOYBEANS:
U.S. farmers had seeded 96% of soybeans as of Sunday July 5, up just 2 points week on week, and at a time when plantings have usually virtually finished, USDA data showed.

On the charts:  Soybeans suffered a steep loss July 7 as it slipped below the $10 per bushel level and hit our support level at the 9.87 price based on the August contract.  With this pullback equal to 50% of the entire June run-up, we can expect to see firmer prices to the up-side heading into the WASDE report due out on July 10. Although the main trend is still down, we have both the weekly and daily charts showing more upside potential. I would need to see a close above the $10.75 to be excited about a potential trend reversal.




WHEAT:

French soft wheat production this year will hit its second highest level in recent history, lifted by elevated sowings, according to the French farm ministry. They foresee a recovery in durum output as well.
The ministry - in its first estimate for this year's French soft wheat harvest, the European Union's biggest – pegged it at 37.87m tonnes, a rise of nearly 400,000 tonnes year on year.
On the charts:  As mentioned last week in our commentary, we ran up to the $6.25 resistance level after the June 30 report but then backed off.  This pullback is necessary before another assault on the all-important $6.25-6.50 level on the lead month contract is tested.  As a technician I have learned that what goes up fast will also come down fast unless there is proper ground work. I am still of the opinion that we could see a correction to the 5.40-5.60 level on the September contract due in part that the July contract is getting close to expiry.  To consider confirming a trend change, I am looking for a close above the $6.50 level; however this is not an exact science.
Both short and medium term indicators are now positive but the main trend is still down.    




HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE July 8, 2015

SWW @ $326.77/MT ($8.89/bu),  HRW @ $286.95/MT ($7.81/bu), 
HRS @ $282.26/MT ($7.68/bu),  SRW @ $261.18/MT ($7.11/bu).


Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 

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