[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jan 7 15:54:04 EST 2015


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, January 7
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1851 up 0.0047
Chicago corn closed moderately lower to lower.

      MAR15   HI 4.07  1/4                    DEC15    HI 4.30
             LOW 3.96                                 LOW 4.20
            CLOSE3.96  1/4  Down 8 3/4              CLOSE 4.20  1/4  Down 8

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt  Adj $/bu   $/mt Cntrct  Adj   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +MAR15+MAY15+MAY15
CK Low       0.55                        4.51 177.65  0.10         4.30 169.38
CK High      0.55                        4.51 177.65  0.15         4.35 171.35
CK Avg       0.55                  -0.18 4.51 177.65  0.11 -0.68   4.31 169.71
Essex Cty    0.60                        4.56 179.62  0.19         4.39 172.93
Mdsx Low     0.55                        4.51 177.65  0.10         4.30 169.38
Mdsx High    0.55                        4.51 177.65  0.10         4.30 169.38
Mdsx Avg     0.55                  -0.18 4.51 177.65  0.10 -0.69   4.30 169.38
Hensall      0.55                        4.51 177.65  0.10         4.30 169.38
Bruce        0.55                        4.51 177.65  0.10         4.30 169.38
Putnam       0.55                        4.51 177.65  0.10         4.30 169.38
Burford      0.60                        4.56 179.62  0.10         4.30 169.38
Port Perry   0.50                        4.46 175.68  0.10         4.30 169.38
Norfolk      0.60                        4.56 179.62  0.15         4.35 171.35
Palmerston   0.55                        4.51 177.65  0.05         4.25 167.41
Varna        0.55                        4.51 177.65  0.10         4.30 169.38
Trenton      0.80                        4.76 187.49  0.30         4.50 177.26
Winchester   0.90                        4.86 191.43  0.40         4.60 181.19
North Gower  0.95                        4.91 193.40  0.45         4.65 183.16
Huron FOB    0.65                        4.61 181.59  0.10         4.30 169.38
Kent FOB     0.55                        4.51 177.65  0.10         4.30 169.38
Lamb FOB     0.55                        4.51 177.65  0.10         4.30 169.38
Mdsx FOB     0.55  0.60  0.55  0.60      4.51 177.65  0.10         4.30 169.38
FOB SW Que  N/A                                       0.61         4.81 189.46
Track        0.90                        4.86 191.43N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth     0.80  0.85  0.80N/A         4.76 187.49N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                      N/A
Sarn-Eth     0.80  0.85  0.80N/A         4.76 187.49N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                     N/A*
London-Ing  N/A    0.85  0.90  0.95                 N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing  0.85N/A   N/A   N/A         4.81 189.46N/A
Cardnl-Ing  N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
W O Feed     0.99                   0.77 4.95 194.97

US Rep       1.15                   0.93 5.11 201.27
Toledo El.  -0.21                        3.75 147.61 -0.51         3.69 145.33

TRANSFER
Sarnia      N/A                                     N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A                                     N/A
Hamilton     0.62                        4.58180 2/5  0.45         4.65183 1/6

MID SD CRN   0.55                        4.51 1/4
HI SD CRN    0.55                        4.51 1/4
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1851 up 0.0047
Chicago soybeans closed narrowly mixed.

       MAR15   HI 10.61               NOV15    HI 10.31  1/2
              LOW 10.48  1/4                  LOW 10.18  3/4
             CLOSE10.56  1/4  Up  1/2       CLOSE 10.25   Down 3 3/4

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt Adj.  $/bu  $/mt BasisAdj.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +MAR1+MAR1+MAY15
CK Low       1.33                     11.89 436.970.99      11.24 413.00
CK High      1.45                     12.01 441.381.05      11.30 415.20
CK Average   1.36                -0.5811.93 438.201.01 -0.9211.26 413.73
Essex Cty    1.63                     12.19 448.001.28      11.53 423.65
Mdsx Low     1.31                     11.87 436.240.97      11.22 412.26
Mdsx High    1.35                     11.91 437.711.00      11.25 413.37
Mdsx Average 1.33                -0.6111.89 436.970.99 -0.9511.24 412.82
Hensall      1.33                     11.89 436.790.98      11.23 412.45
Bruce        1.35                     11.91 437.711.00      11.25 413.37
Putnam       1.30                     11.86 435.870.95      11.20 411.53
Burford      1.34                     11.90 437.341.00      11.25 413.37
Port Perry   1.27                     11.83 434.770.92      11.17 410.43
Norfolk      1.40                     11.96 439.551.02      11.27 414.10
Palmerston   1.35                     11.91 437.711.00      11.25 413.37
Varna        1.30                     11.86 435.870.95      11.20 411.53
Trenton      1.30                     11.86 435.871.00      11.25 413.37
Winchester   1.90                     12.46 457.921.40      11.65 428.06
North Gower  1.82                     12.38 454.981.62      11.87 436.15
Huron FOB    1.50                     12.06 443.221.00      11.25 413.37
Kent FOB     1.35                     11.91 437.711.02      11.27 414.10
Lambton FOB  1.35                     11.91 437.711.02      11.27 414.10
Middlesex FOB1.54 1.57 1.19  N/A      12.10 444.691.19      11.44 420.35

PROCESSORS
Hamilton     2.00 2.05 2.10  N/A      12.56 461.591.62      11.87 436.15
Windsor      1.86 1.94 1.94 1.90      12.42 456.451.50      11.75 431.74
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton     2.01  N/A  N/A  N/A      12.57 461.961.62      11.87 436.15
Pt. Stanley   N/A                                  N/A
Sarnia        N/A                                  N/A
Owen Sound    N/A                                  N/A
Sorel QC      N/A                                 2.21      12.46 457.83

Toledo El.   -0.31                    10.25 376.79-0.45      9.80 360.03


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1851 up 0.0047
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower to lower.
MAR15      HI     5.94  1/2             JUL15   HI      6.01  1/4
           LOW    5.78  1/2                     LOW     5.86  1/2
           CLOSE  5.79  1/2  Down 12 1/4        CLOSE   5.87  3/4  Down 11

Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
MAR15      HI         6.28              JUL15   HI         6.39
           LOW    6.13  1/2                     LOW        6.28
           CLOSE  6.15  3/4  Down 9 3/4         CLOSE   6.29  1/4  Down 9 1/2

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.78          1.36            1.01          0.54
CAD $/bu              7.57          7.16            6.80          6.70
CAD $/tonne         278.24        263.01          249.96        246.15


Direct MarkHarvest 2014                 Harvest 2015
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     1.10   0.51    N/A
London      1.86    1.15   0.86    N/A    0.96    1.08   0.37    N/A
Hensall     2.00    N/A    0.95    N/A    1.10    N/A    0.40    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.35    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A    1.00    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.44    N/A
Norwich     2.00    N/A    0.95    N/A    1.20    N/A    0.50    N/A
Mt. Elgin    N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Kent Bridge 2.00    N/A    0.95    N/A    1.20    N/A    0.40    N/A
Chatham      N/A    1.15   0.90    N/A    N/A     1.10   0.40    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.90    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.40    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.20   0.95   0.30    N/A     1.15   0.40   -0.20
Varna       2.00    1.30   0.95    N/A    1.10    1.10   0.40    N/A
Mitchell    2.00    1.60   0.95    N/A    1.10    1.10   0.40    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.32    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A   0.42

TERMINAL
Sarnia       N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Hamilton     N/A    N/A    1.08    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.77    N/A
Pt. Stanley  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM     2.96N/A        1.36N/A    N/A     N/A        1.35N/A

Toledo El. N/A                          5.75US          6.83CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.99          1.46            0.57          0.41
CAD $/bu              6.87          7.34            6.45          6.71
CAD $/tonne         252.30        269.77          237.02        246.41

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat             290.00 - 310.00
Bayport Oats              300.00
Bayport Barley            275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal            528.02 - 537.94
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm       215.00

--

Wednesday, January 7, 2014
COMMODITY	PERIOD	PRICE	WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT	Mar	3.96	↓	         1	cents
Soybeans CBOT	Mar	10.56	↑	34	cents
Wheat CBOT	Mar	5.79	↓	11	cents
Wheat Minn.	Mar	6.16	↓	6	cents
Wheat Kansas	Mar	6.20	↓	6	cents
 	 	 			 
Canadian $	Mar	0.84.45	↓	152	points



CORN:   
The recent tumble in the price of crude oil has not helped corn markets.   As a fundamentalist, I could say that the reason for corn dropping below $4.00 was due to the slow ethanol demand numbers, however, as stated in our December 17 report, we have closed the gap at $3.98 on our charts which suggests we could see lower prices.
On the charts:  we are still positive on both the short and medium term indicators while the main trend is still down.  A close below the $3.90 level could see a further price correction. Support is seen at $3.80 and again at $3.70.   The $4.15 level proved to be a stumbling block but we may get another shot at it before long if the indicators stay strong. Both short term and medium term indicators are in bullish mode but the main trend is still down. 
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures were weaker coming to the end of 2014. Nearby futures ended 2014 down 42% from their May highs of $15.75 bottoming out at $9.04 in early October.
On the charts:  the recoil formation on the bean chart suggests we could see a significant rally in the coming weeks.  Short term indicators turned positive but we still need a close above the $10.65- $10.75 level to confirm this short term signal. If we get a close above $10.65, our upside targets of $11.50 and $12.00 are very real.  Long term indicators remain down despite the possibility of a $2.00 rally into a bear market this winter.








WHEAT:

The U.S. Department of Agriculture revealed that the condition of winter wheat fell in major growing states including Kansas, the country's top wheat growing state, last month – in some cases dramatically.

On the charts:  the resistance we spoke of in our December 17 letter of $6.60 proved to be the one that stopped the train.  After reaching an intraday of $6.76 on December 18 we closed that day just above $6.50 and have since felt the effects of gravity and as suggested, pulled back to the $5.75 support level. Short term indicators have turned bearish suggesting more downside is possible and a test of the $5.55-65 support level is also possible before we turn back north. Medium term indicators remain positive while the long term trend is still down.

2015 HARVEST CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE January 7, 2015

SWW @ $252.41/mt ($6.87/bu), SRW @ $237.13/mt ($6.45/bu),
HRW @ $269.88/mt ($7.34/bu), HRS @ $248.92/mt ($6.77/bu).



Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 



-- 
John Jordan 
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News 
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus 
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577 
Fax. 519-674-1530 

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