[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Feb 11 15:34:25 EST 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, February 11
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2635 up 0.0107
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
MAR15 HI 3.89 3/4 DEC15 HI 4.19 1/4
LOW 3.84 LOW 4.14 1/2
CLOSE3.85 3/4 Down 2 1/4 CLOSE 4.15 1/4 Down 3 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY15+MAY15+JUL15
CK Low 0.80 4.66 183.36 0.40 4.55 179.22
CK High 0.82 4.68 184.15 0.40 4.55 179.22
CK Avg 0.80 -0.23 4.66 183.49 0.40 -0.71 4.55 179.22
Essex Cty 0.84 4.70 184.93 0.44 4.59 180.80
Mdsx Low 0.80 4.66 183.36 0.40 4.55 179.22
Mdsx High 0.80 4.66 183.36 0.40 4.55 179.22
Mdsx Avg 0.80 -0.23 4.66 183.36 0.40 -0.71 4.55 179.22
Hensall 0.80 4.66 183.36 0.40 4.55 179.22
Bruce 0.80 4.66 183.36 0.40 4.55 179.22
Putnam 0.75 4.61 181.39 0.35 4.50 177.26
Burford 0.80 4.66 183.36 0.40 4.55 179.22
Port Perry 0.75 4.61 181.39 0.40 4.55 179.22
Norfolk 0.82 4.68 184.15 0.40 4.55 179.22
Palmerston 0.75 4.61 181.39 0.35 4.50 177.26
Varna 0.80 4.66 183.36 0.40 4.55 179.22
Trenton 0.90 4.76 187.29 0.50 4.65 183.16
Winchester 1.00 4.86 191.23 1.00 5.15 202.84
North Gower 0.86 4.72 185.72 0.75 4.90 193.00
Huron FOB 0.95 4.81 189.26 0.40 4.55 179.22
Kent FOB 0.82 4.68 184.15 0.40 4.55 179.22
Lamb FOB 0.82 4.68 184.15 0.40 4.55 179.22
Mdsx FOB 0.85 0.85 0.90 0.90 4.71 185.33 0.40 4.55 179.22
FOB SW Que N/A 0.90 5.05 198.91
Track 1.23 5.08 200.09N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.60 4.75 187.10
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.00 5.15 202.84
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A 0.85 0.85 N/A
Sarn-Eth 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 4.86 191.23N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.00 1.10 0.70 4.85 191.03
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.70 4.85 191.03
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.10 0.80 4.95 194.97
W O Feed 1.18 0.84 5.03 198.16
US Rep 1.45 1.12 5.31 208.95
Toledo El. -0.14 3.72 146.38 -0.55 3.61 142.02
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton 0.77 4.63182 1/6 0.73 4.88192 2/9
MID SD CRN 0.81 4.66 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.82 4.67 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2635 up 0.0107
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
MAR15 HI 9.81 NOV15 HI 9.61 1/4
LOW 9.66 LOW 9.51 1/2
CLOSE9.77 3/4 Up 8 3/4 CLOSE 9.59 3/4 Up 6
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY1+MAY1+AUG15
CK Low 1.86 11.64 427.601.54 11.14 409.23
CK High 2.05 11.83 434.591.75 11.35 416.95
CK Average 1.95 -0.6611.73 430.971.66 -0.9111.25 413.52
Essex Cty 2.33 12.11 444.871.92 11.52 423.20
Mdsx Low 1.84 11.62 426.871.52 11.12 408.50
Mdsx High 1.95 11.73 430.911.65 11.25 413.27
Mdsx Average 1.90 -0.7111.67 428.891.59 -0.9811.18 410.89
Hensall 1.93 11.70 429.991.63 11.22 412.36
Bruce 1.95 11.73 430.911.65 11.25 413.27
Putnam 1.95 11.73 430.911.65 11.25 413.27
Burford 1.87 11.65 427.971.55 11.15 409.60
Port Perry 1.84 11.62 426.871.52 11.12 408.50
Norfolk 1.95 11.73 430.911.65 11.25 413.27
Palmerston 1.85 11.63 427.241.60 11.20 411.44
Varna 1.90 11.68 429.071.60 11.20 411.44
Trenton 1.85 11.63 427.241.55 11.15 409.60
Winchester 2.40 12.18 447.452.00 11.60 426.14
North Gower 2.35 12.13 445.612.05 11.65 427.97
Huron FOB 2.05 11.83 434.591.65 11.25 413.27
Kent FOB 1.95 11.73 430.911.65 11.25 413.27
Lambton FOB 1.95 11.73 430.911.65 11.25 413.27
Middlesex FOB2.12 2.18 2.18 N/A 11.90 437.161.79 11.39 418.42
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.59 2.66 2.67 2.74 12.37 454.432.24 11.84 434.95
Windsor 2.54 2.54 2.42 2.40 12.32 452.592.13 11.73 430.91
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.58 N/A N/A N/A 12.36 454.062.04 11.64 427.60
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.20 9.57 351.81-0.48 9.12 334.95
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2635 up 0.0107
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
MAR15 HI 5.28 JUL15 HI 5.30
LOW 5.15 3/4 LOW 5.19 3/4
CLOSE 5.25 3/4 Up 4 CLOSE 5.27 Up 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly to moderately higher.
MAR15 HI 5.80 SEP15 HI 5.92
LOW 5.68 1/4 LOW 5.85
CLOSE 5.76 Up 6 CLOSE 5.89 1/2 Up 2 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.16 1.72 1.34 0.90
CAD $/bu 7.42 6.98 6.60 6.66
CAD $/tonne 272.65 256.35 242.39 244.83
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.25 0.70 N/A
London 2.22 1.46 1.21 N/A 1.24 1.37 0.73 N/A
Hensall 2.15 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.25 N/A 0.60 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.00
Essex N/A N/A 1.25 N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A
Norwich 2.15 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.35 N/A 0.70 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 2.15 N/A 1.15 N/A 1.35 N/A 0.60 N/A
Chatham N/A 1.25 1.10 N/A N/A 1.05 0.65 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 1.10 N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.80 1.15 0.60 N/A 1.35 0.65 0.35
Varna 2.20 1.80 1.20 N/A 1.30 1.30 0.65 N/A
Mitchell 2.15 1.75 1.15 N/A 1.25 1.25 0.60 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.45 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.03
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A 1.39 N/A N/A N/A 1.15 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 3.43N/A 1.72N/A N/A N/A 1.66N/A
Toledo El. 5.38US 6.81CA 5.34US 6.77CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.41 1.92 0.97 1.13
CAD $/bu 6.68 7.19 6.24 7.03
CAD $/tonne 245.45 264.09 229.15 258.26
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00
Bayport Oats 300.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 523.17 - 528.68
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 280.00
Wednesday, February 11, 2014
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Mar 3.86 ↑ 3 cents
Soybeans CBOT Mar 9.78 ↑ 6 cents
Wheat CBOT Mar 5.25 ↑ 13 cents
Wheat Minn. Mar 5.74 ↑ 7 cents
Wheat Kansas Mar 5.58 ↑ 4 cents
Canadian $ Mar .7905 ↓ 35 points
CORN:
This month’s United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) supply demand report, released on February 9, offered a few somewhat bullish numbers. The estimate for U.S. corn stocks was cut to 1.827 billion bushels, 50 million(m) bushels more than investors had expected.
On the charts: The $3.65 level that we spoke of last week held on the March corn. This looks like a small rally in a bear market. Indicators are still mixed with the daily and long term indicators looking bearish while the intermediate or weekly charts are still neutral.
SOYBEANS:
Numbers at first glance were also bullish for soybean supplies. The forecast for U.S. inventories at the end of 2014-2015 was reduced by 25 m bushels to 385 m bushels, a cut 13 m bushels more than the market had been anticipated.
On the charts: This week saw the soybeans up just 5 cents from last weeks close. This tight trading range could continue until the much anticipated March USDA report. Resistance is currently at $10 - $10.25 on the nearby contract while short term support is at $9.50 and $9.00. All indicators at this time are still bearish, confirming the downtrend that has been in place since June 2014.
WHEAT:
Wheat fared the worst of all grains after the February 9USDA report, falling to $5.18 ½ a bushel in Chicago for March delivery, after the report raised estimates for both domestic and world supplies of the grain. The USDA cut its forecast for U.S. wheat exports by 25 m bushels to 900 m bushels, citing "increased competition from the European Union and the recent strengthening of the dollar, which makes U.S. exports less competitive".
On the charts: The March wheat contract is still pushing our $5.25 -$5.35 overhead resistance level as of this writing. If we can manage to close above the $5.35 level based on this contract, we could see a nice move towards the $5.50 - $5.60 level. If, however, we are unable to close above this target, we might be looking at a revisit of the $4.90 recent lows of February 2 made on the same contract. Although we are getting some oversold signals, and an increasing likelihood of a spring rally, this downtrend still remains intact.
2014 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE February 11, 2015
SWW @ $272.48/mt ($7.42/bu), SRW @ $242.26/mt ($6.59/bu),
HRW @ $256.21/mt ($6.97/bu), HRS @ $244.58/mt ($6.66/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
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University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
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