[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Aug 5 15:10:54 EDT 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, August 5
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3183 up 0.0058
Chicago corn closed slightly to moderately higher.
SEP15 HI 3.73 3/4 DEC15 HI 3.84
LOW 3.67 1/2 LOW 3.77 1/2
CLOSE3.72 3/4 Up 4 CLOSE 3.83 1/4 Up 4 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC15+DEC15+DEC15
CK Low 0.60 4.33 170.37 0.45 4.28 168.59
CK High 0.65 4.38 172.33 0.50 4.33 170.56
CK Avg 0.64 -0.55 4.37 172.01 0.46 -0.77 4.29 168.92
Essex Cty N/A N/A
Mdsx Low 0.65 4.38 172.33 0.45 4.28 168.59
Mdsx High 0.65 4.38 172.33 0.55 4.38 172.53
Mdsx Avg 0.65 -0.54 4.38 172.33 0.50 -0.72 4.33 170.56
Hensall 0.65 4.38 172.33 0.55 4.38 172.53
Bruce 0.65 4.38 172.33 0.45 4.28 168.59
Putnam 0.65 4.38 172.33 0.45 4.28 168.59
Burford 0.65 4.38 172.33 0.45 4.28 168.59
Port Perry 0.75 4.48 176.27 0.50 4.33 170.56
Norfolk 0.65 4.38 172.33 0.45 4.28 168.59
Palmerston 0.65 4.38 172.33 0.55 4.38 172.53
Varna 0.65 4.38 172.33 0.55 4.38 172.53
Trenton 1.10 4.83 190.05 0.65 4.48 176.47
Winchester 1.20 4.93 193.99 1.00 4.83 190.25
North Gower 1.45 5.18 203.83 0.90 4.73 186.31
Huron FOB 0.85 4.58 180.21 0.55 4.38 172.53
Kent FOB 0.65 4.38 172.33 0.45 4.28 168.59
Lamb FOB 0.65 4.38 172.33 0.45 4.28 168.59
Mdsx FOB 0.80 0.80N/A N/A 4.53 178.24 0.50 4.33 170.56
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.13 4.85 191.03N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sarn-Eth 0.80 0.85N/A N/A 4.53 178.24N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A 1.25 1.30 0.85 0.90 4.73 186.31
Pt.Colb-Ing 1.25 1.25N/A N/A 4.98 195.96N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A 1.30 1.40 0.95 1.05 4.88 192.22
W O Feed 1.24 0.82 4.97 195.56
US Rep 1.55 1.13 5.28 207.77
Toledo El. 0.07 3.79 149.34 -0.32 3.52 138.41
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.47 1/2 4.30 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.50 4.33 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3183 up 0.0058
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
NOV15 HI 9.56 1/4 NOV15 HI 9.56 1/4
LOW 9.42 LOW 9.42
CLOSE9.53 1/4 Up 11 CLOSE 9.53 1/4 Up 11
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV15
CK Low 2.29 11.82 434.402.05 11.58 425.58
CK High 2.35 11.88 436.612.13 11.66 428.52
CK Average 2.33 -0.7111.86 435.932.10 -0.9511.63 427.30
Essex Cty N/A N/A
Mdsx Low 2.29 11.82 434.402.05 11.58 425.58
Mdsx High 2.30 11.83 434.772.11 11.64 427.79
Mdsx Average 2.30 -0.7511.83 434.592.08 -0.9711.61 426.69
Hensall 2.30 11.83 434.772.08 11.61 426.50
Bruce 2.30 11.83 434.772.05 11.58 425.58
Putnam 2.39 11.92 438.082.05 11.58 425.58
Burford 2.32 11.85 435.502.14 11.67 428.89
Port Perry 2.29 11.82 434.402.11 11.64 427.79
Norfolk 2.30 11.83 434.772.10 11.63 427.42
Palmerston 2.30 11.83 434.772.05 11.58 425.58
Varna 2.30 11.83 434.772.10 11.63 427.42
Trenton 2.30 11.83 434.772.10 11.63 427.42
Winchester 2.30 11.83 434.772.44 11.97 439.91
North Gower 2.18 11.71 430.362.40 11.93 438.44
Huron FOB 2.42 11.95 439.182.20 11.73 431.10
Kent FOB 2.35 11.88 436.612.10 11.63 427.42
Lambton FOB 2.35 11.88 436.612.10 11.63 427.42
Middlesex FOB2.59 2.79 N/A N/A 12.12 445.432.28 11.81 434.04
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 3.03 3.23 2.71 2.77 12.56 461.592.84 12.37 454.61
Windsor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. 0.49 10.02 368.20-0.44 9.10 334.26
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.3183 up 0.0058
Chicago wheat closed slightly to moderately higher.
SEP15 HI 5.04 1/2 JUL16 HI 5.23 3/4
LOW 4.92 LOW 5.16 1/4
CLOSE 5.02 Up 8 1/2 CLOSE 5.21 3/4 Up 5 1/4
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
SEP15 HI 5.19 SEP16 HI 5.81
LOW 5.11 3/4 LOW 5.78
CLOSE 5.15 1/2 Up 1 3/4 CLOSE 5.79 1/2 Up 2 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 3.38 1.93 1.41 1.05
CAD $/bu 8.40 6.95 6.43 6.21
CAD $/tonne 308.82 255.49 236.10 228.10
Direct MarkHarvest 2015 Harvest 2016
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A 1.75 1.05 N/A N/A 1.45 0.65 N/A
London 3.23 1.78 1.13 N/A 1.68 1.29 0.50 N/A
Hensall 3.50 N/A 1.05 N/A 1.80 N/A 0.65 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A 1.20 N/A N/A N/A 0.60 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A 0.75 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Norwich 3.50 N/A 1.05 N/A 1.80 N/A 0.65 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 3.50 N/A 0.55 N/A 1.80 N/A 0.65 N/A
Chatham N/A 1.70 0.45 N/A N/A 1.45 0.65 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A 0.45 N/A N/A N/A 0.65 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.70 1.00 0.65 N/A 1.50 0.60 0.20
Varna 3.45 1.75 1.05 N/A 1.85 1.45 0.65 N/A
Mitchell 3.50 1.70 1.05 N/A 1.80 1.40 0.65 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 1.18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A 1.91 1.18 1.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 4.77N/A 2.40N/A 3.65N/A 2.06N/A
Toledo El. 5.19US 6.85CA 5.04US 6.65CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 16 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.67 1.80 0.87 1.32
CAD $/bu 6.88 7.02 6.09 7.12
CAD $/tonne 252.95 257.80 223.86 261.55
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats 280.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 546.87 - 551.28
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 210.00 - 215.00
--
Wednesday, August 5, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sep 3.73 ↑ 5 cents
Soybeans CBOT Sep 9.92 ↑ 11 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 5.02 ↑ 6 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 5.15 ↓ 15 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 4.90 ↓ 5 cents
Chicago Oats Sep 2.35 ↑ 8 cents
Canadian $ Sep .7586 ↓ 1.50 points
CORN:
Corn's national condition stayed at 70% good to excellent in Monday's U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) update with the excellent rating gaining one point and good slipping one as minor improvements in Indiana and Nebraska were offset by small declines in a number of states including Illinois, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
On the charts: The corn futures have gained and lost 75 cents per bushel in the past 60 days. This is volatility not unlike that of a typical bottoming action. However, before you get excited, this may just be the realization of another bumper crop and the possibility of even lower prices this year. The September chart is showing corn futures in a situation whereby we will either trade down to $3.50 to test support once again or attempt to fill the gap back at $3.90 before a test of that $3.50 support. In either case, I feel we still need a lot of work to turn these markets higher and reverse this three year down-trend. On the downside, support is seen at the $3.50 level on the September corn contract, with major support at the $3.20 area.
SOYBEANS:
On the charts: Soybean oil has jumped the gun and is retesting the $29.30 levels seen back in January. Although indicators are still negative, we could see support in this area which if proven to be solid, could produce a rally into next week. The Chicago soybeans had a $1.50 per bushel rally beginning in June and have since lost most of it. Even more interesting is that they have been in a $1.50 range for a full year. Major support is still seen at the $9 level and major resistance at the $10.60 based on the lead month. This range has worked well for cash sales. Rallies above $10 on the lead month soybean contract should still be viewed as selling opportunities. All three indicators are still negative.
WHEAT:
The USDA says in its weekly crop report that winter wheat harvest advanced to 93%, compared with 89% a year ago and the 85% average. Spring wheat's condition slipped one point to 70% good/excellent and the harvest was at eight per cent versus the 11% average.
On the charts: Like corn and soybeans, the September wheat contract had a June rally only to lose it all in the past month. We are currently still trading at the $5 area (August 5). With harvest upon us we could actually see a re-test of the old lows around $4.60 if the current levels do not hold. The weekly charts are showing signs of good support levels around the $4.60. Technically, any rallies should be viewed as selling opportunities.
Short term overhead resistance is seen at the $5.50 area on the September contract while major resistance is seen at $6.25 - $6.75. Support is around $5 and again at $4.60. Both short and medium term indicators are neutral but the main trend is still down.
HARVEST 2015 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE August 5, 2015
SWW @ $308.49/MT ($8.40/bu), HRW @ $255.22/MT ($6.95/bu),
HRS @ $227.61/MT ($6.19/bu), SRW @ $235.85/MT ($6.42/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
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