[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report plus Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Apr 29 16:13:27 EDT 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, April 29
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1954 down 0.0067
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
JUL15 HI 3.68 1/2 DEC15 HI 3.86 1/4
LOW 3.63 1/4 LOW 3.81 1/4
CLOSE3.67 3/4 Up 3 1/4 CLOSE 3.85 1/2 Up 3
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL15+JUL15+SEP15
CK Low 0.50 4.18 164.46 0.20 4.06 159.64
CK High 0.66 4.34 170.76 0.35 4.21 165.54
CK Avg 0.53 -0.22 4.20 165.51 0.23 -0.55 4.08 160.62
Essex Cty 0.42 4.10 161.31 0.22 4.08 160.43
Mdsx Low 0.50 4.18 164.46 0.20 4.06 159.64
Mdsx High 0.55 4.23 166.43 0.20 4.06 159.64
Mdsx Avg 0.53 -0.22 4.20 165.45 0.20 -0.58 4.06 159.64
Hensall 0.55 4.23 166.43 0.25 4.11 161.61
Bruce 0.55 4.23 166.43 0.20 4.06 159.64
Putnam 0.61 4.29 168.79 0.25 4.11 161.61
Burford 0.50 4.18 164.46 0.20 4.06 159.64
Port Perry 0.55 4.23 166.43 0.20 4.06 159.64
Norfolk 0.50 4.18 164.46 0.20 4.06 159.64
Palmerston 0.50 4.18 164.46 0.20 4.06 159.64
Varna 0.55 4.23 166.43 0.30 4.16 163.58
Trenton 0.85 4.53 178.24 0.45 4.31 169.48
Winchester 0.90 4.58 180.21 0.85 4.71 185.23
North Gower 0.91 4.59 180.60 0.85 4.71 185.23
Huron FOB 0.68 4.36 171.55 0.42 4.28 168.30
Kent FOB 0.50 4.18 164.46 0.20 4.06 159.64
Lamb FOB 0.50 4.18 164.46 0.20 4.06 159.64
Mdsx FOB 0.50 0.50 0.50N/A 4.18 164.46 0.20 4.06 159.64
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.03 4.70 185.13N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.60 4.46 175.39
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.80 4.66 183.26
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A N/A N/A 0.90 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 1.10 0.50 4.36 171.45
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.55 4.41 173.42
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.80 4.66 183.26
W O Feed 1.09 0.86 4.77 187.85
US Rep 1.25 1.02 4.93 193.99
Toledo El. -0.07 3.61 141.94 -0.40 3.46 136.15
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.58 4.25 3/4 0.27 1/2 4.13
HI SD CRN 0.66 4.33 3/4 0.35 4.20 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1954 down 0.0067
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
JUL15 HI 9.89 NOV15 HI 9.62 3/4
LOW 9.72 3/4 LOW 9.49 1/2
CLOSE9.88 Up 10 3/4 CLOSE 9.61 3/4 Up 8 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+JUL1+AUG15
CK Low 1.31 11.19 411.161.05 10.67 391.96
CK High 1.55 11.43 419.981.30 10.92 401.15
CK Average 1.41 -0.5911.29 414.841.13 -0.8210.74 394.72
Essex Cty 1.55 11.43 419.981.34 10.96 402.62
Mdsx Low 1.29 11.17 410.431.03 10.65 391.23
Mdsx High 1.35 11.23 412.631.05 10.67 391.96
Mdsx Average 1.32 -0.6811.20 411.531.04 -0.9010.66 391.60
Hensall 1.35 11.23 412.631.08 10.69 392.88
Bruce 1.35 11.23 412.631.05 10.67 391.96
Putnam 1.45 11.33 416.311.10 10.72 393.80
Burford 1.32 11.20 411.531.06 10.68 392.33
Port Perry 1.29 11.17 410.431.03 10.65 391.23
Norfolk 1.35 11.23 412.631.05 10.67 391.96
Palmerston 1.40 11.28 414.471.10 10.72 393.80
Varna 1.35 11.23 412.631.10 10.72 393.80
Trenton 1.50 11.38 418.141.25 10.87 399.31
Winchester 1.41 11.29 414.841.38 11.00 404.09
North Gower 1.42 11.30 415.201.34 10.96 402.62
Huron FOB 1.45 11.33 416.311.20 10.82 397.48
Kent FOB 1.35 11.23 412.631.05 10.67 391.96
Lambton FOB 1.35 11.23 412.631.05 10.67 391.96
Middlesex FOB1.46 1.53 1.53 1.53 11.34 416.671.14 10.76 395.27
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 1.83 1.84 1.90 N/A 11.71 430.271.51 11.13 408.87
Windsor 1.76 1.77 1.78 1.78 11.64 427.701.55 11.17 410.34
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.04 9.84 361.70-0.40 9.22 338.81
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1954 down 0.0067
Chicago wheat closed slightly to moderately higher.
MAY15 HI 4.78 1/4 JUL15 HI 4.84
LOW 4.69 LOW 4.74 1/4
CLOSE 4.77 1/4 Up 5 3/4 CLOSE 4.83 1/2 Up 7 1/4
Minni wheat closed moderately higher.
MAY15 HI 5.35 3/4 SEP15 HI 5.60 1/4
LOW 5.23 1/2 LOW 5.48 1/4
CLOSE 5.35 1/4 Up 6 3/4 CLOSE 5.59 1/2 Up 8 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.47 0.72
CAD $/bu 7.24 5.50
CAD $/tonne 266.00 201.96
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.61 N/A N/A 1.05 0.50 N/A
London 2.19 1.29 0.57 N/A 1.80 1.14 0.48 N/A
Hensall 2.56 N/A 0.61 N/A 2.50 N/A 0.50 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.70 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.49 N/A N/A N/A 0.61 N/A
Norwich 2.56 N/A 0.61 N/A 2.50 N/A 0.50 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 2.56 N/A 0.61 N/A 2.50 N/A 0.50 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.30 0.50 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.50 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.30 0.56 0.78 N/A 1.30 0.50 0.65
Varna 2.56 1.26 0.56 N/A 2.50 1.20 0.50 N/A
Mitchell 2.56 1.81 0.61 N/A 2.50 1.25 0.50 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.03 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.94
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 3.13N/A 1.08N/A N/A N/A 1.22N/A
Toledo El. 4.85US 5.83CA 4.91US 5.90CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.54 0.88
CAD $/bu 7.37 5.72
CAD $/tonne 270.97 210.02
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00
Bayport Oats 300.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 468.93 - 476.65
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 250.00 - 255.00
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT July 3.68 ↓ 12 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 9.88 ↑ 16 cents
Wheat CBOT July 4.83 ↓ 17 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.50 ↓ 06 cents
Wheat Kansas July 5.11 ↓ 06 cents
Canadian $ June .8323 ↑ 1.53 points
CORN:
U.S. farmers could be witnessing one of their fastest weeks ever for corn planting thanks to an improvement in the weather, which is raising expectations for sowings and yields.
Growers completed 19% of corn plantings as of April 26, just behind the average of 25% for this time of year and up 10 per cent from the previous week, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.
On the charts: The July corn contract lost almost twenty cents the week of April 22 and it has lost almost forty cents since the beginning of April. The charts look very heavy and suggest lower prices ahead. The next support is seen at $3.50 on the July contract and again at $3.20.
All three indicators are negative.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean progress was reported at two per cent complete behind the four-year average of four per cent during this time period. April 30 is first notice day and we will be switching to the July contract at that time.
On the charts: As of April 29, the July soybean contract has gained roughly 15 cents per bushel. The major resistance stands around $10 - $10.25 on the lead month. We see mixed signals on the market direction with the short term indicators neutral to bullish while the weekly and long term trend remains down. I am still viewing this market as bearish until we see a reason to treat it otherwise. I still maintain that you could see a significant run-up without altering the main trend and that any significant rally should be viewed as a selling opportunity until we have proof that the market has turned. Major support is seen at the $9 level and resistance is at $10 - $10.25.
WHEAT:
Optimism in U.S. wheat prices has long been undermined by lacklustre U.S. export demand and curtailed by a strong U.S dollar, which has made the country's shipments less competitive.
Selling has recently gained momentum from rains which have begun to reduce the extent of drought in the central and southern U.S. Plains, even though evidence of crop improvement has been modest.
On the charts: We are now tracking the July contract as our lead month. While the July wheat contract continued its slide to the important $4.50 - $4.60 level, we did see a hook reversal on the daily chart indicating a possible rally in the short term. From a technician’s point of view, we need to realize that we are still in a downtrend. This pattern looks like a short term support and a rally is very possible. However, if we fail to find support in the near term at these levels, there is nothing of any significance below $4.50 until we approach the $4 level on the lead month contract. We have seen a double whammy for Canadian farmers with the Canadian dollar gaining almost a nickel in the past month, which reduces the cash price for Canadian grains.
All indicators are still negative continuing the multi-year bear market in wheat.
2014 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE April 29, 2015
SWW @ $266.01/mt ($7.24/bu), SRW @ $201.94/mt ($5.50/bu),
HRW @ $230.66/mt ($6.28/bu), HRS @ $220.94/mt ($6.01/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
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John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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