[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Apr 15 16:04:34 EDT 2015
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, April 15
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2379 down 0.0099
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
MAY15 HI 3.79 DEC15 HI 4.03 1/2
LOW 3.70 1/2 LOW 3.96
CLOSE3.76 Up 2 1/2 CLOSE 4.00 1/2 Up 1 1/2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY15+JUL15+SEP15
CK Low 0.75 4.51 177.55 0.40 4.41 173.42
CK High 0.80 4.56 179.52 0.45 4.46 175.39
CK Avg 0.78 -0.10 4.54 178.54 0.43 -0.51 4.43 174.40
Essex Cty 0.68 4.44 174.80 0.37 4.38 172.24
Mdsx Low 0.75 4.51 177.55 0.40 4.41 173.42
Mdsx High 0.80 4.56 179.52 0.45 4.46 175.39
Mdsx Avg 0.78 -0.10 4.54 178.54 0.43 -0.51 4.43 174.40
Hensall 0.80 4.56 179.52 0.48 4.48 176.37
Bruce 0.80 4.56 179.52 0.45 4.46 175.39
Putnam 0.80 4.56 179.52 0.45 4.46 175.39
Burford 0.75 4.51 177.55 0.40 4.41 173.42
Port Perry 0.75 4.51 177.55 0.40 4.41 173.42
Norfolk 0.75 4.51 177.55 0.40 4.41 173.42
Palmerston 0.75 4.51 177.55 0.45 4.46 175.39
Varna 0.80 4.56 179.52 0.50 4.51 177.35
Trenton 1.00 4.76 187.39 0.60 4.61 181.29
Winchester 1.00 4.76 187.39 0.95 4.96 195.07
North Gower 0.95 4.71 185.42 0.95 4.96 195.07
Huron FOB 0.90 4.66 183.46 0.55 4.56 179.32
Kent FOB 0.75 4.51 177.55 0.40 4.41 173.42
Lamb FOB 0.75 4.51 177.55 0.40 4.41 173.42
Mdsx FOB 0.75 0.75 0.75N/A 4.51 177.55 0.40 4.41 173.42
FOB SW Que N/A N/A
Track 1.18 4.94 194.28N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.75 4.76 187.20
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.95 4.96 195.07
Aylmer-Eth N/A 0.85 0.90 1.00 N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A N/A 1.00 1.10 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A 1.20 1.20 0.85 4.86 191.13
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.85 4.86 191.13
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.00 5.01 197.04
W O Feed 1.22 0.93 4.98 196.05
US Rep 1.30 1.01 5.06 199.20
Toledo El. -0.05 3.71 146.08 -0.41 3.60 141.66
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A
MID SD CRN 0.77 1/2 4.53 1/2
HI SD CRN 0.80 4.561
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2379 down 0.0099
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
MAY15 HI 9.76 3/4 NOV15 HI 9.60
LOW 9.58 3/4 LOW 9.47 1/2
CLOSE9.65 Up 4 3/4 CLOSE 9.52 1/2 Up 4 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAY1+MAY1+AUG15
CK Low 1.64 11.29 414.841.42 10.95 402.16
CK High 1.80 11.45 420.721.60 11.13 408.77
CK Average 1.74 -0.5011.39 418.511.51 -0.7011.04 405.53
Essex Cty 1.78 11.43 419.981.58 11.11 408.04
Mdsx Low 1.62 11.27 414.101.40 10.93 401.43
Mdsx High 1.75 11.40 418.881.50 11.03 405.10
Mdsx Average 1.69 -0.5611.34 416.491.45 -0.7610.98 403.26
Hensall 1.73 11.38 417.961.50 11.03 405.10
Bruce 1.75 11.40 418.881.55 11.08 406.94
Putnam 1.75 11.40 418.881.45 10.98 403.26
Burford 1.65 11.30 415.201.43 10.96 402.53
Port Perry 1.62 11.27 414.101.40 10.93 401.43
Norfolk 1.75 11.40 418.881.50 11.03 405.10
Palmerston 1.70 11.35 417.041.45 10.98 403.26
Varna 1.70 11.35 417.041.50 11.03 405.10
Trenton 1.75 11.40 418.881.55 11.08 406.94
Winchester 1.85 11.50 422.551.91 11.44 420.16
North Gower 1.82 11.47 421.451.80 11.33 416.12
Huron FOB 1.85 11.50 422.551.60 11.13 408.77
Kent FOB 1.75 11.40 418.881.50 11.03 405.10
Lambton FOB 1.75 11.40 418.881.50 11.03 405.10
Middlesex FOB1.60 1.79 1.81 N/A 11.25 413.371.55 11.08 406.94
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 1.88 2.07 2.08 N/A 11.53 423.651.81 11.34 416.49
Windsor 1.99 2.00 2.02 2.03 11.64 427.701.79 11.32 415.76
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A N/A
Toledo El. -0.07 9.58 351.86-0.41 9.12 335.04
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.2379 down 0.0099
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
MAY15 HI 5.03 3/4 JUL15 HI 5.02 1/4
LOW 4.90 LOW 4.88 1/4
CLOSE 4.90 3/4 Down 6 1/4 CLOSE 4.89 Down 7 1/2
Minni wheat closed slightly to moderately lower.
MAY15 HI 5.58 1/4 SEP15 HI 5.73
LOW 5.41 3/4 LOW 5.61 3/4
CLOSE 5.43 1/4 Down 8 3/4 CLOSE 5.63 1/4 Down 5 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 2.13 1.70 1.20 0.83
CAD $/bu 7.03 6.60 6.11 6.26
CAD $/tonne 258.46 242.61 224.50 230.16
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 1.18 N/A N/A 1.40 0.81 N/A
London 2.25 1.57 1.19 N/A 1.21 1.21 0.65 N/A
Hensall 2.45 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.45 N/A 0.80 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.80 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 1.05 N/A N/A N/A 0.70 N/A
Norwich 2.45 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.55 N/A 0.90 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 2.45 N/A 1.20 N/A 1.55 N/A 0.80 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.40 0.75 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.75 N/A
Palmerston N/A 1.75 1.15 0.65 N/A 1.50 0.85 0.80
Varna 2.50 1.70 1.10 N/A 1.50 1.45 0.75 N/A
Mitchell 2.45 2.00 1.20 N/A 1.45 1.45 0.80 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.24
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 3.36N/A 1.26N/A N/A N/A 1.38N/A
Toledo El. 4.98US 6.13CA 4.96US 6.11CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 1.20 1.69 1.01 1.12
CAD $/bu 6.09 6.58 5.90 6.76
CAD $/tonne 223.70 241.82 216.91 248.27
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00
Bayport Oats 300.00
Bayport Barley 275.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 481.17 - 486.68
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 250.00 - 255.00
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT May 3.76 ↓ 2 cents
Soybeans CBOT May 9.65 ↓ 7 cents
Wheat CBOT May 4.91 ↓ 36 cents
Wheat Minn. May 5.43 ↓ 37 cents
Wheat Kansas May 5.14 ↓ 35 cents
Canadian $ June .8118 ↑ 1.55 points
CORN:
Corn planting is off to a sluggish start. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) officials confirmed on April 13 only 2% of the nation's corn crop is in the ground; the normal planting pace by this week is 5%. Last year, farmers had 3% of the crop in the ground by this week. Though not many were in the field yet by this time a year ago, farmers in all but one state -- Wisconsin -- had sown at least some corn by this time. According to the report, farmers in Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, and Michigan have yet to get rolling, and Ohio farmers only have 1% in the ground.
On the charts: May corn contract has lost twenty five cents since April 1 and has given us a sell signal since reaching its intraday high of $3.98 on March 31 of this year. Support now stands at our recent lows of $3.67 and below that we see the next major support level at the $3.55 area based on the May contract.
SOYBEANS:
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) data on April 15 is expected to show the biggest domestic soybean crush on record for a March number, at 155.261m bushels.
Soybeans had the best performance of the three grains from April 8-15 despite talk of huge South American harvests, and of large US spring plantings.
On the charts: As of April 15 we see the May soybean contract has only lost two cents per bushel for the week as we sit at the $9.70 before the close. The beans have been in a $1.50 range since last October and all indicators are still negative. We still maintain that we could see a significant run-up without altering the main trend and that any significant rally should be viewed as a selling opportunity until we have proof that the market has turned. Major support is seen at the $9.00 level and a close above the $10.25 area on the lead month would be needed before we could see a run-up. For now, all three indicators are still negative.
WHEAT:
On the charts: Wheat was pulled back in line with the corn trade with a big reversal day on Monday April 13, losing about 35 cents on the week and flashing a sell signal on the short term charts. Support lines were also negated and at this point we have set the stage for more re-testing of the support areas at our contract lows of $4.70- $4.80. It was just a matter of time before the tug of war between wheat and corn was resolved and the wheat finally gave way to the downward pressure evident in the corn. Short term indicators are now negative along with the medium and long term trend. With the damage to the charts, base building will take time and it could be a while before we see a reversal in this market.
2014 CROP CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE April 15, 2015
SWW @ $258.57/mt ($7.04/bu), SRW @ $224.60/mt ($6.11/bu),
HRW @ $242.72/mt ($6.61/bu), HRS @ $230.04/mt ($6.26/bu).
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
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John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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