[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Sep 17 15:53:35 EDT 2014
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, September 17
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0952 down 0.0038
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
DEC14 HI 3.44 1/4 DEC14 HI 3.44 1/4
LOW 3.39 1/4 LOW 3.39 1/4
CLOSE3.41 3/4 Down 2 CLOSE 3.41 3/4 Down 2
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC14+DEC14+MAR15
CK Low 1.00 4.42 173.91 0.30 3.72 146.35
CK High 1.15 4.57 179.81 0.30 3.72 146.35
CK Avg 1.06 0.73 4.48 176.27 0.30 -0.03 3.72 146.35
Essex Cty 1.15 4.57 179.81 0.35 3.77 148.32
Mdsx Low 1.00 4.42 173.91 0.30 3.72 146.35
Mdsx High 1.15 4.57 179.81 0.30 3.72 146.35
Mdsx Avg 1.08 0.74 4.49 176.86 0.30 -0.03 3.72 146.35
Hensall 1.15 4.57 179.81 0.33 3.74 147.34
Bruce 1.15 4.57 179.81 0.30 3.72 146.35
Putnam 1.15 4.57 179.81 0.30 3.72 146.35
Burford 1.00 4.42 173.91 0.30 3.72 146.35
Port Perry 1.00 4.42 173.91 0.30 3.72 146.35
Norfolk N/A 0.30 3.72 146.35
Palmerston 1.00 4.42 173.91 0.30 3.72 146.35
Varna 0.90 4.32 169.97 0.35 3.77 148.32
Trenton 0.95 4.37 171.94 0.30 3.72 146.35
Winchester 1.00 4.42 173.91 0.50 3.92 154.23
North Gower 1.10 4.52 177.85 0.42 3.84 151.08
Huron FOB N/A 0.25 3.67 144.38
Kent FOB N/A 0.30 3.72 146.35
Lamb FOB N/A 0.30 3.72 146.35
Mdsx FOB 1.00N/A N/A N/A 4.42 173.91 0.30 3.72 146.35
FOB SW Que N/A 0.90 4.32 169.97
Track 1.65 5.07 199.50N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 0.85 0.25 0.25 0.25 4.27 168.00 0.25 3.67 144.38
Sarn-Eth 1.15 1.15 0.40 0.35 4.57 179.81 0.40 3.82 150.29
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing 1.15 1.15 0.60 0.50 4.57 179.81 0.60 4.02 158.16
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 0.65 0.70 0.55 0.55 3.97 156.19
Cardnl-Ing N/A 1.25 0.70 0.60 0.70 4.12 162.10
W O Feed 1.82 1.72 5.24 206.19
US Rep 1.80 1.70 5.22 205.40
Toledo El. -0.07 3.35 131.95 -0.25 3.17 124.60
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A 0.38 3.80149 1/2
MID SD CRN 0.30 3.71 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.30 3.71 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0952 down 0.0038
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
NOV14 HI 9.88 NOV14 HI 9.88
LOW 9.77 1/2 LOW 9.77 1/2
CLOSE9.82 1/2 Up 1 3/4 CLOSE 9.82 1/2 Up 1 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+JAN15
CK Low 1.50 11.33 416.120.26 10.09 370.56
CK High 1.89 11.72 430.450.40 10.23 375.70
CK Average 1.60 0.64 11.42 419.710.34 -0.6210.17 373.50
Essex Cty 1.67 11.50 422.370.31 10.14 372.40
Mdsx Low 1.50 11.33 416.120.35 10.18 373.87
Mdsx High 1.89 11.72 430.450.36 10.19 374.23
Mdsx Average 1.70 0.74 11.52 423.290.36 -0.6010.18 374.05
Hensall 1.50 11.33 416.120.33 10.15 372.95
Bruce 1.50 11.33 416.120.35 10.18 373.87
Putnam 1.50 11.33 416.120.35 10.18 373.87
Burford 1.92 11.75 431.550.39 10.22 375.34
Port Perry 1.89 11.72 430.450.36 10.19 374.23
Norfolk N/A 0.35 10.18 373.87
Palmerston 1.90 11.73 430.820.30 10.13 372.03
Varna N/A 0.30 10.13 372.03
Trenton N/A 0.30 10.13 372.03
Winchester N/A 0.90 10.73 394.08
North Gower N/A 0.78 10.61 389.67
Huron FOB N/A 0.40 10.23 375.70
Kent FOB N/A 0.26 10.09 370.56
Lambton FOB N/A 0.26 10.09 370.56
Middlesex FOB0.82 N/A N/A N/A 10.65 391.140.48 10.31 378.64
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 0.70 0.70 0.80 0.76 10.53 386.730.70 10.53 386.73
Windsor 1.90 0.54 0.60 0.73 11.73 430.820.54 10.37 380.85
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.50 10.33 379.38
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 2.05 11.88 436.331.43 11.26 413.55
Toledo El. N/A -0.25 9.57 351.73
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0952 down 0.0038
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC14 HI 5.01 1/2 JUL15 HI 5.38 1/4
LOW 4.94 1/4 LOW 5.31
CLOSE 4.99 1/4 Up 3 CLOSE 5.36 1/4 Up 3 1/4
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC14 HI 5.66 3/4 JUL15 HI 6.04 1/4
LOW 5.61 1/2 LOW 6.00 3/4
CLOSE 5.63 Down 2 1/2 CLOSE 6.00 3/4 Down 3 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.60 0.71 0.21 0.06
CAD $/bu 5.59 5.70 5.21 5.69
CAD $/tonne 205.40 209.43 191.28 208.93
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A -0.15 N/A N/A N/A -0.30 N/A
London 0.59 0.65 -0.07 N/A 0.27 0.71 -0.29 N/A
Hensall 0.75 N/A -0.15 N/A 0.30 N/A -0.30 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -0.20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -0.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.10 N/A N/A N/A -0.15 N/A
Norwich 1.00 N/A -0.15 N/A 0.30 N/A -0.30 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 0.75 N/A -0.15 N/A 0.30 N/A -0.30 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.50 -0.15 N/A N/A 0.50 -0.32 N/A
Brigden N/A 0.50 -0.15 N/A N/A 0.50 -0.32 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.61 -0.16 -0.26 N/A 0.48 -0.40 N/A
Varna 0.75 0.55 -0.15 N/A 0.30 0.55 -0.30 N/A
Mitchell 0.75 0.50 -0.15 N/A 0.30 0.55 -0.30 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.44 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A 0.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.12 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 1.59N/A 0.49N/A N/A N/A 0.74N/A
Toledo El. 4.96US 5.45CA 5.18US 5.69CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.30 0.69 -0.13 -0.29
CAD $/bu 5.67 6.05 5.23 5.72
CAD $/tonne 208.22 222.34 192.09 210.04
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 285.00 - 300.00
Bayport Oats 315.00
Bayport Barley 270.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 734.59 - 740.10
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 180.00 - 190.00
--
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.42 ↓ 3 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 9.82 ↓ 11 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 4.99 ↓ 21 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.63 ↓ 47 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 5.82 ↓ 19 cents
Canadian $ Dec 0.9114 ↑ 02 points
CORN:
Corn futures fell to new lows last week in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA’s) September Crop Production report, pegging the crop at 14.4 billion bushels, up 363 million bushels from August and 100 million bushels above trade estimates. We have now broken through the floor of $3.50 on the nearby month and this trend still looks very much intact. As we said last week, we are likely to go fishing for stops below that $3.25 level before we take aim at the next major support level of $3.00 corn.
One thing to remember is that all markets change their trend in time, but before that happens we also are given many opportunities to rethink our individual situation in the form of market rallies or upward price moves. This allows us an opportunity to sell some product at a price that may not appeal to you today but in fact may look good two months from now. The major trend is down and before this market turns the corner we could see lower prices given the extent of the anticipated supply on the horizon for the coming harvest.
SOYBEANS:
Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans could plunge by as much as 25 per cent in the crop year that began this month after processing margins in the country fell to their lowest in two years, industry sources said.
The potential drop in shipments to the world's biggest buyer of the commodity comes as the United States is gearing up to harvest a record soybean crop, piling more pressure on benchmark prices that this week hit their lowest in four years.
As we approach soybean harvest season , we could see major volatility resulting in as much as a full dollar range in a single week as the real scope of the harvest comes into focus and the true supply and demand situation sorts itself out. This could be the result of unknown factors coming into play or simply short covering by hedge fund managers and speculators. Either way, it isn’t likely to be a trend changing move. Meanwhile, planning for next year’s crops begins amid this backdrop to add further volatility to the markets.
On the charts, the next major support is seen between $9.00 and $9.35 on the lead month. Major overhead resistance is still around the $12-12.50 level on the lead month contract.
WHEAT:
Standard Chartered cut by up to $0.95 a bushel its forecasts for Chicago wheat prices, taking them, for more distant contracts, well below the level that investors are pricing in.
The downgrade reflected the abundant world harvest this season, pegged by the USDA at a record 720m tonnes, backed by an excellent harvest in the former Soviet Union – renowned as an exporter of competitively-priced wheat.
U.S. wheat is still overpriced in the world market, despite a weaker dollar and the significant drop in Chicago prices. This is due in part to the bumper global harvest, weaker demand from key importers and competitively priced Black Sea wheat.
On the charts, Chicago wheat for December is trading at $5.00 a bushel as of this writing and the key indicators are showing oversold conditions but the trend still remains negative. I still expect to see a test of the $4.50 level basis the lead month before the December contract expires. There will be a lot of stop orders below that level which could cause an exaggerated drop before we settle down and find some support.
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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