[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Repoirt & Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Nov 19 15:43:35 EST 2014
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, November 19
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.135 up 0.0045
Chicago corn closed lower.
DEC14 HI 3.72 DEC15 HI 4.15 1/2
LOW 3.62 3/4 LOW 4.06 1/4
CLOSE3.63 1/4 Down 8 3/4 CLOSE 4.07 Down 9
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR15+MAR15+MAR15
CK Low 0.40 4.03 158.75 0.00 4.07 160.23
CK High 0.45 4.08 160.72 0.00 4.07 160.23
CK Avg 0.43 -0.07 4.06 159.74 0.00 -0.55 4.07 160.23
Essex Cty 0.35 3.98 156.78 0.05 4.12 162.20
Mdsx Low 0.45 4.08 160.72 0.00 4.07 160.23
Mdsx High 8.00 11.63 457.95 8.00 12.07 475.17
Mdsx Avg 4.23 3.73 7.86 309.34 4.00 3.45 8.07 317.70
Hensall 0.45 4.08 160.72 0.00 4.07 160.23
Bruce 0.40 4.03 158.75 0.00 4.07 160.23
Putnam 0.40 4.03 158.75 0.00 4.07 160.23
Burford 0.40 4.03 158.75 0.00 4.07 160.23
Port Perry 0.40 4.03 158.75 0.00 4.07 160.23
Norfolk 0.45 4.08 160.72 0.00 4.07 160.23
Palmerston 0.40 4.03 158.75 -0.10 3.97 156.29
Varna 0.40 4.03 158.75 0.00 4.07 160.23
Trenton 0.50 4.13 162.69 0.00 4.07 160.23
Winchester 0.75 4.38 172.53 0.10 4.17 164.17
North Gower 0.85 4.48 176.47 -0.05 4.02 158.26
Huron FOB 0.50 4.13 162.69 0.10 4.17 164.17
Kent FOB 0.40 4.03 158.75 0.00 4.07 160.23
Lamb FOB 0.40 4.03 158.75 0.00 4.07 160.23
Mdsx FOB 0.45N/A N/A N/A 4.08 160.72 0.15 4.22 166.13
FOB SW Que 1.00 4.63 182.37N/A
Track 0.78 4.41 173.52N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.40 3.93 154.82 N/A
Sarn-Eth 0.55 0.55 0.60N/A 4.18 164.66N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing 0.95 0.80 0.80 0.85 4.58 180.41N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing N/A 1.00 0.85 0.90 N/A
Cardnl-Ing N/A 0.90 0.95 1.00 N/A
W O Feed 0.87 0.72 4.50 177.26
US Rep 0.95 0.80 4.58 180.41
Toledo El. -0.25 3.38 133.17 -0.49 3.58 141.00
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton 0.48 4.11162 0.23 4.30169 2/7
MID SD CRN 0.42 1/2 4.05 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.45 4.08 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.135 up 0.0045
Chicago soybeans closed moderately lower.
JAN15 HI 10.25 NOV15 HI 10.12
LOW 10.03 3/4 LOW 9.92
CLOSE10.04 3/4 Down 18 1/2 CLOSE 9.92 1/2 Down 18 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+MAR15
CK Low 0.80 10.85 398.580.45 10.38 381.22
CK High 0.85 10.90 400.410.50 10.43 383.05
CK Average 0.81 -0.5510.86 398.940.48 -0.8710.40 382.26
Essex Cty 0.84 10.89 400.050.58 10.51 385.99
Mdsx Low 0.79 10.84 398.210.45 10.38 381.22
Mdsx High 0.80 10.85 398.580.45 10.38 381.22
Mdsx Average 0.80 -0.5710.84 398.390.45 -0.9010.38 381.22
Hensall 0.80 10.85 398.580.45 10.38 381.22
Bruce 0.80 10.85 398.580.45 10.38 381.22
Putnam 0.75 10.80 396.740.45 10.38 381.22
Burford 0.82 10.87 399.310.48 10.41 382.32
Port Perry 0.79 10.84 398.210.45 10.38 381.22
Norfolk 0.80 10.85 398.580.45 10.38 381.22
Palmerston 0.80 10.85 398.580.50 10.43 383.05
Varna 0.80 10.85 398.580.45 10.38 381.22
Trenton 0.85 10.90 400.410.50 10.43 383.05
Winchester 1.25 11.30 415.110.82 10.75 394.81
North Gower 1.39 11.44 420.260.89 10.82 397.38
Huron FOB 0.90 10.95 402.250.55 10.48 384.89
Kent FOB 0.80 10.85 398.580.45 10.38 381.22
Lambton FOB 0.80 10.85 398.580.45 10.38 381.22
Middlesex FOB1.03 N/A N/A N/A 11.08 407.030.50 10.43 383.05
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 1.43 1.49 1.39 1.41 11.48 421.730.99 10.92 401.06
Windsor 1.02 1.19 1.37 1.27 11.07 406.660.80 10.73 394.08
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 1.50 N/A N/A N/A 11.55 424.300.89 10.82 397.38
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 1.68 11.73 430.911.64 11.57 424.94
Toledo El. -0.25 9.80 360.00-0.43 9.49 348.82
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.135 up 0.0045
Chicago wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC14 HI 5.49 1/2 JUL15 HI 5.64
LOW 5.35 LOW 5.50 1/2
CLOSE 5.37 3/4 Down 11 1/4 CLOSE 5.53 1/2 Down 10 1/2
Minni wheat closed moderately lower.
DEC14 HI 5.78 JUL15 HI 6.01
LOW 5.67 3/4 LOW 5.90 1/2
CLOSE 5.71 1/2 Down 7 CLOSE 5.94 1/2 Down 8 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.84 0.96 0.45 0.26
CAD $/bu 6.22 6.33 5.82 5.98
CAD $/tonne 228.58 232.75 213.97 219.71
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A 0.19 N/A N/A 0.70 0.07 N/A
London 1.21 0.81 0.19 N/A 0.61 0.72 -0.07 N/A
Hensall 1.35 N/A 0.25 N/A 0.55 N/A -0.05 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.05 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.24 N/A N/A N/A -0.11 N/A
Norwich 1.35 N/A 0.25 N/A 0.65 N/A 0.05 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 1.35 N/A 0.25 N/A 0.65 N/A -0.05 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.80 0.20 N/A N/A 0.70 -0.05 N/A
Brigden N/A 0.80 0.20 N/A N/A 0.70 -0.05 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.80 0.15 0.20 N/A 0.70 -0.05 N/A
Varna 1.30 0.90 0.25 N/A 0.55 0.80 0.00 N/A
Mitchell 1.35 0.90 0.25 N/A 0.55 0.80 -0.05 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A 0.02 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.12
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A 0.81 N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 2.43N/A 0.96N/A N/A N/A 0.98N/A
Toledo El. N/A 5.36US 6.08CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.52 0.92 0.07 -0.10
CAD $/bu 6.06 6.46 5.60 5.84
CAD $/tonne 222.63 237.24 205.94 214.70
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 285.00 - 310.00
Bayport Oats 315.00
Bayport Barley 270.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 623.26 - 628.77
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 135.00 - 150.00
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.63 ↑ 25 cents
Soybeans CBOT Jan 10.05 ↓ 50 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.37 ↓ 20 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.72 ↓ 16 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 5.83 ↓ 25 cents
Canadian $ Dec 0.8815 ↑ 28 points
CORN:
Eighty-nine per cent of corn in the main U.S. growing areas was harvested as of Nov. 16, ahead of the average pace, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said November 18. The agency expects U.S. farmers to produce 14.407 billion bushels, an all-time high.
On the charts:
We managed to reach our resistance target of $3.90 last week and have since backed off and are trading at $3.63 as of this writing. Short term indicators remain positive and our support is seen at $3.50 while our new resistance is $3.90 once again. If this rally is to continue, the next challenge is to close above the $3.90 level and set our sights on the $4.10 - $4.20 level basis the lead month. If this were to happen, I feel the main trend indicators would turn positive; but as of now, we must hold our course. The short term indicators are remaining positive but the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
The soybean harvest was 94 per cent complete as of November 16, compared with an average pace of 96 per cent at this time of year,. Production will reach a record 3.958 billion bushels.
For the first time in months, we are seeing normalized futures markets with the absence of inversion. This suggests that the nearby demand has been satisfied for the time being and we are back to a carry market. Pricing will depend largely on the immediate supply situation and South American crop progress going forward. This also tells me that we could see lower prices once the South American production is assured.
On the charts:
We saw our $11.00 target area challenged last Wednesday and have since slipped back to retest the $10.00 support level as of this writing. As I indicated before, the volatility of the beans is evident in the price swings as we continue to see hedge funds and large specs jockey for position in a bear market. A test of the support at the $9.65-75 level is important as a close below that area could ignite a further drop to challenge the critical $9.00 level on the weekly charts. Overhead resistance is now at $11.00 and $11.50 basis the January contract.
As for now, the short term indicators remain positive but the main trend is still down and rallies are being viewed as selling opportunities.
WHEAT:
Our fifty cent rally this week has reached our target level of $5.60 as the wheat futures have moved a full dollar from their September 25 lows of $4.66. However, the wheat is still the strongest looking of the three ags on a technical level. We could see further rallies once we complete this pullback and digest the move. The market carry into March is currently absent which could persuade shorts to exit the market instead of rolling their positions. This could ignite another rally into the expiry of the December contract.
On the charts: The $5.60 overhead target did its job and held off the advance of the December contract as it closed out the week at $5.60 ½ on November 14. Our main trend indicator crossed from negative to neutral. From this level we could see a pullback to the $5.25 level on December. If we manage to retest overhead resistance and penetrate it, the next obstacle is at the $6.00 level basis the lead month contract. A close above the $5.75 level on December could actually turn our main trend indicators positive. However, we have a lot of work ahead of us for this to happen.
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
--
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John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
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