[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Nov 5 15:57:14 EST 2014
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, November 5
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1377 down 0.0020
Chicago corn closed slightly to moderately higher.
DEC14 HI 3.71 3/4 DEC15 HI 4.14 3/4
LOW 3.59 LOW 4.02 1/2
CLOSE3.70 1/4 Up 5 3/4 CLOSE 4.14 Up 6 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR15+MAR15+MAR15
CK Low 0.35 4.05 159.54 -0.10 4.04 159.05
CK High 0.40 4.10 161.51 0.00 4.14 162.98
CK Avg 0.36 -0.16 4.06 159.87 -0.07 -0.65 4.07 160.36
Essex Cty 0.50 4.20 165.45 0.10 4.24 166.92
Mdsx Low 0.35 4.05 159.54 -0.10 4.04 159.05
Mdsx High 0.35 4.05 159.54 -0.10 4.04 159.05
Mdsx Avg 0.35 -0.17 4.05 159.54 -0.10 -0.68 4.04 159.05
Hensall 0.35 4.05 159.54 -0.08 4.07 160.03
Bruce 0.35 4.05 159.54 -0.05 4.09 161.02
Putnam 0.35 4.05 159.54 -0.05 4.09 161.02
Burford 0.35 4.05 159.54 -0.10 4.04 159.05
Port Perry 0.35 4.05 159.54 -0.10 4.04 159.05
Norfolk 0.40 4.10 161.51 0.00 4.14 162.98
Palmerston 0.35 4.05 159.54 -0.10 4.04 159.05
Varna 0.35 4.05 159.54 -0.05 4.09 161.02
Trenton 0.35 4.05 159.54 -0.10 4.04 159.05
Winchester 0.65 4.35 171.35 0.05 4.19 164.95
North Gower 0.85 4.55 179.22 -0.05 4.09 161.02
Huron FOB 0.40 4.10 161.51N/A
Kent FOB 0.40 4.10 161.51 0.00 4.14 162.98
Lamb FOB 0.40 4.10 161.51 0.00 4.14 162.98
Mdsx FOB 0.35N/A N/A N/A 4.05 159.54 -0.10 4.04 159.05
FOB SW Que 1.06 4.76 187.49N/A
Track 0.98 4.68 184.15N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.40 4.00 157.57 N/A
Sarn-Eth 0.55 0.55 0.60N/A 4.25 167.41N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing 0.95 0.70 0.75 0.80 4.65 183.16N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing 1.15 0.75 0.80 0.85 4.85 191.03N/A
Cardnl-Ing 1.00 0.80 0.85 0.90 4.70 185.13N/A
W O Feed 1.08 0.92 4.78 188.28
US Rep 1.10 0.94 4.80 189.07
Toledo El. -0.21 3.50 137.67 -0.49 3.65 143.67
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton 0.52 4.22166 1/4 0.27 4.41173 3/5
MID SD CRN 0.37 1/2 4.07 3/4
HI SD CRN 0.40 4.10 1/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1377 down 0.0020
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
JAN15 HI 10.21 1/2 NOV15 HI 10.06 1/2
LOW 9.95 1/4 LOW 9.84 1/2
CLOSE10.19 1/4 Up 9 1/2 CLOSE 10.04 Up 5 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+MAR15
CK Low 0.80 10.99 403.910.40 10.44 383.60
CK High 0.90 11.09 407.580.54 10.58 388.75
CK Average 0.82 -0.6211.01 404.580.44 -0.9810.48 385.07
Essex Cty 0.89 11.08 407.210.66 10.70 393.16
Mdsx Low 0.79 10.98 403.540.40 10.44 383.60
Mdsx High 0.80 10.99 403.910.52 10.56 388.01
Mdsx Average 0.80 -0.6410.99 403.720.46 -0.9610.50 385.81
Hensall 0.80 10.99 403.910.40 10.44 383.60
Bruce 0.80 10.99 403.910.40 10.44 383.60
Putnam 0.80 10.99 403.910.40 10.44 383.60
Burford 0.82 11.01 404.640.55 10.59 389.12
Port Perry 0.79 10.98 403.540.52 10.56 388.01
Norfolk 0.80 10.99 403.910.40 10.44 383.60
Palmerston 0.80 10.99 403.910.40 10.44 383.60
Varna 0.80 10.99 403.910.40 10.44 383.60
Trenton 0.80 10.99 403.910.45 10.49 385.44
Winchester 1.32 11.51 423.010.89 10.93 401.61
North Gower 1.42 11.61 426.690.95 10.99 403.81
Huron FOB 0.85 11.04 405.74 N/A
Kent FOB 0.80 10.99 403.910.40 10.44 383.60
Lambton FOB 0.80 10.99 403.910.40 10.44 383.60
Middlesex FOB1.15 N/A N/A N/A 11.34 416.770.52 10.56 388.01
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 1.49 1.55 1.45 1.52 11.68 429.260.98 11.02 404.92
Windsor 1.11 1.29 1.46 1.36 11.30 415.300.89 10.93 401.61
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 1.55 N/A N/A N/A 11.74 431.460.98 11.02 404.92
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 2.23 12.42 456.451.73 11.77 432.47
Toledo El. -0.23 9.96 366.12-0.43 9.61 352.97
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1377 down 0.0020
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC14 HI 5.32 1/2 JUL15 HI 5.57 1/4
LOW 5.18 3/4 LOW 5.43 1/2
CLOSE 5.24 3/4 Down 5 3/4 CLOSE 5.50 Down 4 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC14 HI 5.69 1/4 JUL15 HI 5.96 3/4
LOW 5.58 3/4 LOW 5.90 1/4
CLOSE 5.59 3/4 Down 9 1/4 CLOSE 5.91 1/4 Down 6 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.85 0.97 0.46 0.28
CAD $/bu 6.10 6.22 5.70 5.87
CAD $/tonne 224.22 228.42 209.55 215.84
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A 0.40 0.15 N/A N/A N/A -0.11 N/A
London N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.49 0.99 -0.09 N/A
Hensall 1.20 N/A 0.15 N/A 0.40 N/A -0.25 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.05 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A 0.30 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.20 N/A N/A N/A -0.08 N/A
Norwich 1.20 N/A 0.15 N/A 0.50 N/A -0.15 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 1.20 N/A 0.15 N/A 0.40 N/A -0.25 N/A
Chatham N/A 0.70 0.15 N/A N/A 0.65 -0.05 N/A
Brigden N/A 0.70 0.15 N/A N/A 0.65 -0.05 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.80 0.15 0.20 N/A 0.70 -0.05 0.35
Varna 1.20 0.85 0.15 N/A 0.40 0.65 -0.25 N/A
Mitchell 1.20 0.85 0.15 N/A 0.40 0.65 -0.25 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A 0.29 N/A N/A N/A -0.07
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.35 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 2.45N/A 0.97N/A N/A N/A 1.00N/A
Toledo El. N/A 5.32US 6.07CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.55 0.95 0.09 -0.08
CAD $/bu 6.05 6.45 5.59 5.83
CAD $/tonne 222.23 236.91 205.46 214.37
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 285.00 - 310.00
Bayport Oats 315.00
Bayport Barley 270.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 590.08 - 601.10
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 110.00 - 125.00
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Dec 3.70 ↓ 5 cents
Soybeans CBOT Nov 10.20 ↓ 24 cents
Wheat CBOT Dec 5.25 ↓ 13 cents
Wheat Minn. Dec 5.60 ↓ 23 cents
Wheat Kansas Dec 5.85 ↓ 22 cents
Canadian $ Dec 0.87.63 ↓ 150 points
CORN:
Corn farmers south of the border have moved 19% of their crop in the barn, five points more than expected and one of the strongest levels of progress for any week in the past 20 years. However, at 65% complete, the farmers still remain eight percent behind the pace typically seen at harvest by this time of year. The lag is contributed to a late spring sowing season and a cool summer, coupled with wet autumn conditions. The quick pace allowed Corn Belt farmers to catch up on sowing of winter wheat, which has been delayed by the slow pace of this land coming free.
On the charts, corn is behaving the best of our three grains when it comes to finding a bottom. After hitting the overhead resistance at $3.70-$3.80 we are now settling back ahead of the WASDE report on November 10. Interim support is seen at $3.50 basis the December contract and any close in the coming weeks above the $4.20 could indicate a long overdue trend change to the upside. Short term indicators remain positive but the main trend is still down.
SOYBEANS:
U.S. Soybean harvest progressed quicker than expected last week – so fast that Corn Belt elevators are running out of space, although the strong pace allowed some catch-up on wheat plantings.
U.S. growers gathered in 13% of their soybeans in the week to November 2, more than the 11% that analysts had forecast, and taking the harvest to 83% completion, bang in line with the average pace.
On the charts, like wheat, our overhead resistance area was challenged last week. We are now awaiting the WASDE report on November 10 for direction. Unlike corn and wheat, the charts are telling us that soybeans are more likely to break hard if the $9.00 support level fails on a retest, due to the volatility we’ve seen in bean prices. As of this writing we are trading at $10.10 per bushel based on the November contract. The short term indicators are positive but the main trend remains bearish.
WHEAT:
USDA scouts in Indiana say, "there is some concern that the delayed harvest may prevent some farmers from getting wheat planted before winter arrives." The data also revealed some deterioration in condition of the winter wheat crop in the wet Corn Belt states, with the wheat rated "good" or "excellent" a strong 64% in Illinois and 58% in Missouri. The overall U.S. winter wheat crop rating remained stable at 59%, again presenting some disappointment.
On the charts: The $5.50 -$5.60 range has proven to be the barrier that we anticipated. With the USDA WASDE report out on November 10th, it is unlikely that we will break above that range until after the report. It’s more likely we will see a pullback and could even possibly test the $5.00 level before the report. The $5.70 level on the December chart remains the major resistance but a strong close above it, could be the signal that we could be forming a bottom and a possible trend change. Short term indicators remain positive but the main trend is still down.
Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario
2014 harvest prices as of the close of November 5 are as follows:
SWW at $224.23/mt ($6.10/bu), HRW at $228.42/mt ($6.22/bu),
HRS at $215.95/mt ($5.88/bu), SRW at $209.55/mt ($5.70/bu).
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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