[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary (Ed. Note: please open PDF for graphs)
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jun 4 15:34:32 EDT 2014
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, June 4
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0937 up 0.0022
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.
JUL14 HI 4.60 1/2 DEC14 HI 4.56 3/4
LOW 4.54 1/4 LOW 4.50 1/2
CLOSE4.56 1/4 Down 2 CLOSE 4.53 1/2 Down 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP14+SEP14+DEC14
CK Low -0.25 4.31 169.78 -0.30 4.24 166.72
CK High -0.20 4.36 171.74 -0.25 4.29 168.69
CK Avg -0.24 -0.68 4.32 170.10 -0.29 -0.72 4.25 167.18
Essex Cty 0.00 4.56 179.62 -0.25 4.29 168.69
Mdsx Low -0.25 4.31 169.78 -0.30 4.24 166.72
Mdsx High -0.25 4.31 169.78 -0.25 4.29 168.69
Mdsx Avg -0.25 -0.69 4.31 169.78 -0.28 -0.71 4.26 167.71
Hensall -0.24 4.33 170.37 -0.25 4.29 168.69
Bruce -0.25 4.31 169.78 -0.25 4.29 168.69
Putnam -0.30 4.26 167.81 -0.30 4.24 166.72
Burford -0.25 4.31 169.78 -0.30 4.24 166.72
Port Perry -0.30 4.26 167.81 -0.30 4.24 166.72
Norfolk -0.25 4.31 169.78 -0.28 4.26 167.51
Palmerston -0.25 4.31 169.78 -0.25 4.29 168.69
Varna -0.25 4.31 169.78 -0.25 4.29 168.69
Trenton -0.05 4.51 177.65 -0.25 4.29 168.69
Winchester N/A N/A
North Gower 0.05 4.61 181.59 0.02 4.56 179.32
Huron FOB 0.05 4.61 181.59 -0.28 4.26 167.51
Kent FOB -0.25 4.31 169.78 -0.28 4.26 167.51
Lamb FOB -0.25 4.31 169.78 -0.28 4.26 167.51
Mdsx FOB -0.25N/A N/A N/A 4.31 169.78 -0.25 4.29 168.69
FOB SW Que 0.65 5.21 205.21 -0.05 4.49 176.57
Track 0.23 4.79 188.48N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth -0.05 0.00 0.10 0.15 4.51 177.65N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth -0.05 0.00 0.10 0.15 4.51 177.65 N/A
Sarn-Eth 0.00 0.10 0.15N/A 4.56 179.62N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A N/A N/A 0.35 0.05 4.59 180.50
Pt.Colb-Ing 0.35 0.45 0.50 0.55 4.91 193.40 0.10 4.64 182.47
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 0.50 0.55 0.20 4.74 186.41
W O Feed 0.35 0.25 4.91 193.40
US Rep 0.50 0.40 5.06 199.30
Toledo El. -0.19 4.38 172.28 -0.34 4.20 165.16
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton 0.35 4.91193 2/5 0.05 4.59180 1/2
MID SD CRN -0.27 1/2 4.26
HI SD CRN -0.25 4.28 1/2
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0937 up 0.0022
Chicago soybeans closed mixed.
JUL14 HI 14.95 3/4 NOV14 HI 12.28
LOW 14.75 3/4 LOW 12.14 1/4
CLOSE14.82 1/2 Up 1 1/4 CLOSE 12.17 1/4 Down 4 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JUL1+AUG1+NOV14
CK Low 1.35 16.18 594.330.44 12.61 463.43
CK High 1.42 16.25 596.900.50 12.67 465.63
CK Average 1.39 -0.0416.22 595.800.47 -0.7012.64 464.41
Essex Cty 1.65 16.48 605.350.72 12.89 473.72
Mdsx Low 1.40 16.23 596.170.44 12.61 463.43
Mdsx High 1.42 16.25 596.900.45 12.62 463.80
Mdsx Average 1.41 -0.0216.24 596.530.45 -0.7312.62 463.61
Hensall 1.40 16.23 596.170.45 12.62 463.80
Bruce 1.40 16.23 596.170.45 12.62 463.80
Putnam N/A 0.40 12.57 461.96
Burford 1.45 16.28 598.000.47 12.64 464.53
Port Perry 1.42 16.25 596.900.44 12.61 463.43
Norfolk 1.37 16.20 595.060.46 12.63 464.16
Palmerston 1.40 16.23 596.170.45 12.62 463.80
Varna 1.35 16.18 594.330.40 12.57 461.96
Trenton 1.30 16.13 592.490.40 12.57 461.96
Winchester N/A N/A
North Gower 1.46 16.29 598.370.84 13.01 478.13
Huron FOB 1.50 16.33 599.840.55 12.72 467.47
Kent FOB 1.37 16.20 595.060.46 12.63 464.16
Lambton FOB 1.37 16.20 595.060.46 12.63 464.16
Middlesex FOB1.63 N/A N/A N/A 16.46 604.620.66 12.83 471.51
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.06 2.13 N/A N/A 16.89 620.421.03 13.20 485.11
Windsor 1.91 1.82 N/A N/A 16.74 614.910.90 13.07 480.33
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.17 N/A N/A N/A 17.00 624.461.04 13.21 485.48
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 1.82 16.65 611.601.68 13.85 508.99
Toledo El. 0.30 15.12 555.60-0.31 11.87 435.98
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0937 up 0.0022
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
JUL14 HI 6.19 1/2 JUL14 HI 6.19 1/2
LOW 6.10 3/4 LOW 6.10 3/4
CLOSE 6.14 1/2 Up 2 CLOSE 6.14 1/2 Up 2
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
JUL14 HI 6.93 SEP14 HI 7.00 3/4
LOW 6.84 LOW 6.92 1/2
CLOSE 6.89 1/2 Up 5 CLOSE 6.97 3/4 Up 4 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 13 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.21 0.32 -0.01 -0.32
CAD $/bu 6.35 6.46 6.13 6.57
CAD $/tonne 233.42 237.45 225.37 241.48
Direct MarkHarvest 2013 Harvest 2014
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.15 -0.34 N/A
London 0.22 0.44 -0.27 N/A 0.12 0.07 -0.37 N/A
Hensall 0.25 N/A -0.30 N/A 0.25 N/A -0.35 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.15 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A 0.06 N/A N/A N/A -0.32 N/A
Norwich 0.25 N/A -0.30 N/A 0.25 N/A -0.35 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 0.25 N/A -0.30 N/A 0.25 N/A -0.35 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.35 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.35 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.73 -0.24 0.08 N/A 0.34 -0.32 -0.28
Varna 0.25 0.50 -0.25 N/A 0.25 0.15 -0.30 N/A
Mitchell 0.25 0.50 -0.30 N/A 0.25 0.15 -0.35 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.59 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A -0.40 N/A N/A N/A -0.03
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.00 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A 0.76N/A 1.03N/A 0.76N/A
Toledo El. 6.09US 6.67CA 6.17US 6.76CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.26 0.37 -0.12 -0.04
CAD $/bu 6.41 6.52 6.02 6.94
CAD $/tonne 235.44 239.47 221.34 254.87
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 335.00 - 340.00
Bayport Oats 360.00
Bayport Barley 280.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 655.34 - 659.74
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 300.00 - 305.00
Wednesday June 4th, 2014
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT July 4.56 ↓ 16 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 14.82 ↓ 16 cents
Wheat CBOT July 6.14 ↓ 25 ¼ cents
Wheat Minn. July 6.98 ↓ 20 cents
Wheat Kansas July 7.13 ↓ 23 ½ cents
Canadian $ Sept 0.9122 ↓ 40 points
CORN:
Ninety-five percent of the nation's corn crop was planted as of June 1, according to USDA's latest weekly Crop Progress report. That compared to 90% last year and a five-year average of 94%.
USDA reported corn condition for the first time this growing season. Thirteen percent of the crop is in excellent condition, 63% good, 22% fair and 2% poor. That compares to 11%, 52%, 30% and 5% last year, respectively.
SOYBEANS:
USDA is expecting the U.S. to produce a record high 3.635 billion bushels of soybeans this fall and, so far, those plans are on track. USDA said on June 2 that 78% of the soybean crop was planted and 50% of it had emerged, close to the five-year average pace. If the 2014-15 season closed in line with USDA's May estimates, U.S. ending stocks at 9.6% of annual use would be significantly higher than the current season's record low of 3.8% and correspond historically with March 2015 soybean prices at roughly $11.65 a bushel.
There are two key market issues we will be paying attention to the rest of this year. One is USDA’s Acreage Report, set to be released on June 30th. The other issue will be the world ending stocks of soybeans from USDA’s latest WASDE report.
WHEAT:
After 18 losses in 19 sessions, the 20th brought a halt to the slide in Chicago. As of this writing the pre markets are up 5 cents at $6.18 per bushel after entering the void on the July chart at the $6.10-6.16 range. This is purely technical trading, given the hugely "oversold" nature of futures after their tumble, which includes losses in the last 10 successive sessions, the longest losing streak in 20 years. Unless we see some fresh news to promote a turnaround, the charts suggest a small rally to 6.48 gap as the grain faces a tough task to mount a sustained recovery.
On the fundamental side, CHS Hedging noted that US prices may have more work to do on the downside before a bottom is discovered, despite the prospect of a drought-reduced hard red winter wheat harvest. The Black Sea is still about 20 cents a bushel below the US pricing.
Countering this is a reluctance among growers to sell, especially marked in hard red spring wheat, which saw a rise in basis on Tuesday, and which rose on the Minneapolis futures markets by 0.5% to $6.87 ¾ a bushel for July.
2014 harvest prices as of June 4th at the market close are as follows:
SWW at $235.47/mt ($6.41/bu), SRW at $221.37/mt ($6.02/bu), HRW at $239.50/mt ($6.52/bu), HRS at $254.91/mt ($6.94/bu).
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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