[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Jul 16 15:10:58 EDT 2014
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, July 16
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.075 down 0.0016
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
SEP14 HI 3.86 1/4 DEC14 HI 3.93 3/4
LOW 3.73 3/4 LOW 3.81 3/4
CLOSE3.78 1/4 Up 4 1/4 CLOSE 3.86 3/4 Up 5
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +SEP14+DEC14+DEC14
CK Low 0.10 3.88 152.85 -0.15 3.72 146.35
CK High 0.15 3.93 154.82 -0.15 3.72 146.35
CK Avg 0.12 -0.17 3.90 153.50 -0.15 -0.44 3.72 146.35
Essex Cty -0.02 3.76 148.12 -0.10 3.77 148.32
Mdsx Low 0.10 3.88 152.85 -0.15 3.72 146.35
Mdsx High 0.15 3.93 154.82 -0.15 3.72 146.35
Mdsx Avg 0.13 -0.16 3.91 153.83 -0.15 -0.44 3.72 146.35
Hensall 0.15 3.93 154.82 -0.15 3.72 146.35
Bruce 0.10 3.88 152.85 -0.15 3.72 146.35
Putnam 0.10 3.88 152.85 -0.15 3.72 146.35
Burford 0.15 3.93 154.82 -0.15 3.72 146.35
Port Perry 0.05 3.83 150.88 -0.15 3.72 146.35
Norfolk 0.15 3.93 154.82 -0.10 3.77 148.32
Palmerston 0.20 3.98 156.78 -0.15 3.72 146.35
Varna 0.20 3.98 156.78 -0.15 3.72 146.35
Trenton 0.20 3.98 156.78 -0.10 3.77 148.32
Winchester 0.25 4.03 158.75 0.15 4.02 158.16
North Gower 0.32 4.10 161.51 0.17 4.04 158.95
Huron FOB 0.40 4.18 164.66 -0.15 3.72 146.35
Kent FOB 0.15 3.93 154.82 -0.10 3.77 148.32
Lamb FOB 0.15 3.93 154.82 -0.10 3.77 148.32
Mdsx FOB 0.15N/A N/A N/A 3.93 154.82 -0.15 3.72 146.35
FOB SW Que 0.75 4.53 178.44 -0.18 3.69 145.17
Track 0.65 4.43 174.50N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth 0.40 0.45 0.45 0.05 4.18 164.66 0.05 3.92 154.23
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth 0.40 0.45 0.45 0.05 4.18 164.66 0.05 3.92 154.23
Sarn-Eth 0.45 0.50 0.45N/A 4.23 166.63 0.00 3.87 152.26
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A*
London-Ing N/A 0.55 0.55 0.65 0.20 4.07 160.13
Pt.Colb-Ing 0.65 0.70 0.70 0.75 4.43 174.50 0.30 4.17 164.07
Cardnl-Ing N/A N/A 0.65 0.75 0.35 4.22 166.04
W O Feed 0.95 0.87 4.73 186.31
US Rep 0.80 0.72 4.58 180.41
Toledo El. -0.12 3.66 144.25 -0.28 3.59 141.24
TRANSFER
Sarnia N/A N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Hamilton 0.75 4.53178 3/7 0.14 4.01157 3/4
MID SD CRN -0.15 3.71 3/4
HI SD CRN -0.15 3.71 3/4
*Wet Bid
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.075 down 0.0016
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
AUG14 HI 12.03 1/2 NOV14 HI 11.07 3/4
LOW 11.80 1/2 LOW 10.85 3/4
CLOSE11.87 1/4 Up 6 3/4 CLOSE 11.02 Up 15 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +AUG1+AUG1+NOV14
CK Low 1.70 13.57 498.700.20 11.22 412.26
CK High 1.80 13.67 502.380.25 11.27 414.10
CK Average 1.74 0.84 13.62 500.300.21 -0.6311.23 412.57
Essex Cty 1.76 13.63 500.910.31 11.33 416.31
Mdsx Low 1.75 13.62 500.540.18 11.20 411.53
Mdsx High 1.76 13.63 500.910.20 11.22 412.26
Mdsx Average 1.76 0.85 13.63 500.720.19 -0.6511.21 411.90
Hensall 1.78 13.65 501.460.18 11.20 411.35
Bruce 1.75 13.62 500.540.20 11.22 412.26
Putnam 1.75 13.62 500.540.15 11.17 410.43
Burford 1.79 13.66 502.010.21 11.23 412.63
Port Perry 1.76 13.63 500.910.18 11.20 411.53
Norfolk 1.75 13.62 500.540.20 11.22 412.26
Palmerston 1.80 13.67 502.380.15 11.17 410.43
Varna 1.80 13.67 502.380.15 11.17 410.43
Trenton 1.80 13.67 502.380.20 11.22 412.26
Winchester 1.85 13.72 504.220.55 11.57 425.12
North Gower 1.91 13.78 506.420.58 11.60 426.23
Huron FOB 1.90 13.77 506.050.25 11.27 414.10
Kent FOB 1.70 13.57 498.700.20 11.22 412.26
Lambton FOB 1.70 13.57 498.700.20 11.22 412.26
Middlesex FOB1.96 N/A N/A N/A 13.83 508.260.37 11.39 418.51
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 2.18 N/A N/A N/A 14.05 516.340.69 11.71 430.27
Windsor 1.98 1.94 0.53 N/A 13.85 508.990.54 11.56 424.76
Winchester N/A N/A
TRANSFER
Hamilton 2.38 N/A N/A N/A 14.25 523.690.57 11.59 425.86
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A
Sarnia N/A N/A
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 2.05 13.92 511.561.33 12.35 453.78
Toledo El. 0.72 12.59 462.73-0.30 10.72 393.84
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.075 down 0.0016
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
SEP14 HI 5.44 3/4 JUL15 HI 6.13
LOW 5.35 3/4 LOW 6.06 1/2
CLOSE 5.38 Up 1/4 CLOSE 6.09 1/4 Up 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
SEP14 HI 6.36 1/4 JUL15 HI 6.74 3/4
LOW 6.27 1/2 LOW 6.70 1/4
CLOSE 6.28 Down 2 1/2 CLOSE 6.71 Down 2 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis 0.14 0.25 -0.24 -0.33
CAD $/bu 5.52 5.63 5.14 5.95
CAD $/tonne 202.84 206.79 189.00 218.65
Direct MarkHarvest 2014 Harvest 2015
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A 0.02 -0.35 N/A N/A N/A -0.45 N/A
London 0.16 0.21 -0.43 N/A 0.01 -0.31 -0.42 N/A
Hensall 0.25 N/A -0.35 N/A 0.10 N/A -0.45 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -0.35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A 0.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A -0.35 N/A N/A N/A -0.52 N/A
Norwich 0.25 N/A -0.35 N/A 0.10 N/A -0.45 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge 0.25 N/A -0.35 N/A 0.10 N/A -0.45 N/A
Chatham N/A N/A -0.45 N/A N/A N/A -0.45 N/A
Brigden N/A N/A -0.45 N/A N/A N/A -0.45 N/A
Palmerston N/A 0.31 -0.33 -0.48 N/A 0.10 -0.55 N/A
Varna 0.15 0.25 -0.40 N/A 0.00 0.05 -0.40 N/A
Mitchell 0.25 0.30 -0.35 N/A 0.10 0.05 -0.45 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -1.03 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A -0.28 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -0.19 N/A N/A N/A -0.38 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM 0.84N/A 0.62N/A N/A N/A 0.57N/A
Toledo El. 5.40US 5.81CA 5.86US 6.31CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.18 -0.07 -0.50 -0.46
CAD $/bu 5.91 6.02 5.59 6.25
CAD $/tonne 217.17 221.12 205.31 229.72
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 290.00 - 340.00
Bayport Oats 320.00
Bayport Barley 280.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 555.24 - 560.76
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm 230.00
Wednesday July 16, 2014
COMMODITY PERIOD PRICE WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT Sep 3.78 ↓ 20 cents
Soybeans CBOT Aug 11.87 ↓ 63 cents
Wheat CBOT Sep 5.38 ↓ 12 cents
Wheat Minn. Sep 6.28 ↓ 22 cents
Wheat Kansas Sep 6.37 ↓ 15 cents
Canadian $ Sept 0.9292 ↓ 78 points
CORN:
Forecasts for a bountiful U.S. corn crop and increased corn stocks could potentially trigger subsidy payments for farmers this year. Pat Westhoff, with the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, says prices might trigger payments under the two programs in the new Farm Bill. “If we were to get corn prices below $3.70 a bushel on a season average basis producers who signed up for the new Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program would be qualified for payments. Even if prices are higher than that, people who sign up for the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) program might be getting payments on this year’s crop.”
Westhoff says it’s been awhile since corn prices have been this low, “It’s been several years since we’ve seen these kind of prices. 2010 was the last time futures prices were this low. And, we have the potential of having a season-average price that could be the lowest since the 2008 boom.” Of course, everything will depend on the weather moving forward.
SOYBEANS:
Local Ontario farmers are ecstatic about the progress of their crops at this point in time; especially after such a late start. The general consensus among farmers is they would like to see more sun and a little less rain right now.
Temperatures are currently about 5-7 degrees below normal for this time of year and it puts the soybean crop about five to10 days behind schedule. We need more heat units at this point to catch up but overall the mood is optimistic.
On the flip side of the coin are the concerns over current prices. The September soybean contract has dropped $1.50 a bushel since the beginning of May, revealing prices not seen since 2010.
Farmers have learned to take the price roller coaster in stride, knowing that some years you're just growing to break even and have pride in a good crop. However, until the harvest is in the bin, anything can happen.
WHEAT:
The process of booking producer rail cars now has an online component. As of Monday, the Canadian Grain Commission, which allocates grain cars, is accepting applications for the 2014-15 crop year at its website (www.grainscanada.gc.ca).
Car administrators must use the online system, though individual producers may still use traditional or fax procedures.
The Commission says that the 2013-14 crop year saw a 120per cent increase in applications over the previous year and the new process could help streamline the allocations. The deadline for booking cars for the current crop year was July 16
The September Chicago contract halted its slide on Friday at $5.25 per bushel. Although the indicators are suggesting an oversold condition, the downtrend is still intact with the next major support seen around the $4.50-4.60 basis the lead contract month.
2014 harvest prices as of the close of July 16th are as follows:
SWW at $202.86/mt ($5.52/bu), SRW at $189.02/mt ($5.14/bu), HRW at $206.81/mt ($5.63/bu), HRS at $218.68/mt ($5.95/bu).
--
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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