[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Dec 17 16:07:42 EST 2014


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, December 17
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1629 up 0.0004
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.

      MAR15   HI 4.10                         DEC15    HI 4.34  1/4
             LOW 4.03  1/2                            LOW 4.27  1/2
            CLOSE4.08  1/4  Up 2 1/4                CLOSE 4.32   Up 1 1/4

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt  Adj $/bu   $/mt Cntrct  Adj   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +MAR15+MAR15+MAR15
CK Low       0.55                        4.63 182.37  0.05         4.37 172.04
CK High      0.55                        4.63 182.37  0.10         4.42 174.01
CK Avg       0.55                  -0.13 4.63 182.37  0.09 -0.64   4.41 173.68
Essex Cty    0.57                        4.65 183.16  0.16         4.48 176.37
Mdsx Low     0.55                        4.63 182.37  0.10         4.42 174.01
Mdsx High    0.55                        4.63 182.37  0.10         4.42 174.01
Mdsx Avg     0.55                  -0.13 4.63 182.37  0.10 -0.63   4.42 174.01
Hensall      0.55                        4.63 182.37  0.10         4.42 174.01
Bruce        0.55                        4.63 182.37  0.05         4.37 172.04
Putnam       0.55                        4.63 182.37  0.05         4.37 172.04
Burford      0.60                        4.68 184.34  0.10         4.42 174.01
Port Perry   0.50                        4.58 180.41  0.10         4.42 174.01
Norfolk      0.60                        4.68 184.34  0.10         4.42 174.01
Palmerston   0.55                        4.63 182.37  0.05         4.37 172.04
Varna        0.55                        4.63 182.37  0.10         4.42 174.01
Trenton      0.75                        4.83 190.25  0.10         4.42 174.01
Winchester   0.90                        4.98 196.15  0.15         4.47 175.98
North Gower  0.85                        4.93 194.18  0.05         4.37 172.04
Huron FOB    0.65                        4.73 186.31  0.10         4.42 174.01
Kent FOB     0.55                        4.63 182.37  0.10         4.42 174.01
Lamb FOB     0.55                        4.63 182.37  0.10         4.42 174.01
Mdsx FOB     0.55N/A   N/A   N/A         4.63 182.37  0.15         4.47 175.98
FOB SW Que   1.12                        5.20 204.81  0.53         4.85 190.94
Track        0.90                        4.98 196.15N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A    0.80  0.85  0.80                 N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  N/A    0.70  0.75  0.70                   N/A
Sarn-Eth    N/A    0.80  0.85  0.80                 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                     N/A*
London-Ing   0.90  1.00  1.10  1.07      4.98 196.15N/A
Pt.Colb-Ing  0.90  1.05  1.15  1.12      4.98 196.15N/A
Cardnl-Ing  N/A    1.20  1.25  1.22                 N/A
W O Feed     1.01                   0.82 5.09 200.48

US Rep       1.20                   1.01 5.28 207.96
Toledo El.  -0.21                        3.87 152.46 -0.50         3.82 150.29

TRANSFER
Sarnia      N/A                                     N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A                                     N/A
Hamilton     0.66                        4.74186 5/7  0.38         4.70185

MID SD CRN   0.55                        4.63 1/4
HI SD CRN    0.55                        4.63 1/4
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1629 up 0.0004
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.

       JAN15   HI 10.34               NOV15    HI 10.15
              LOW 10.15                       LOW 9.96  1/4
             CLOSE10.27   Up 3 1/2          CLOSE 10.09  1/2  Up 7 1/2

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt Adj.  $/bu  $/mt BasisAdj.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +JAN1+JAN1+MAR15
CK Low       1.15                     11.42 419.610.69      10.79 396.28
CK High      1.30                     11.57 425.120.80      10.90 400.32
CK Average   1.19                -0.5211.46 421.140.75 -0.9510.84 398.42
Essex Cty    1.39                     11.66 428.431.05      11.15 409.51
Mdsx Low     1.15                     11.42 419.610.67      10.77 395.55
Mdsx High    1.18                     11.45 420.720.75      10.85 398.49
Mdsx Average 1.17                -0.5411.44 420.160.71 -0.9910.81 397.02
Hensall      1.15                     11.42 419.610.73      10.82 397.57
Bruce        1.15                     11.42 419.610.75      10.85 398.49
Putnam       1.15                     11.42 419.610.65      10.75 394.81
Burford      1.21                     11.48 421.820.70      10.80 396.65
Port Perry   1.18                     11.45 420.720.67      10.77 395.55
Norfolk      1.20                     11.47 421.450.75      10.85 398.49
Palmerston   1.15                     11.42 419.610.70      10.80 396.65
Varna        1.15                     11.42 419.610.70      10.80 396.65
Trenton      1.15                     11.42 419.610.75      10.85 398.49
Winchester   1.55                     11.82 434.311.10      11.20 411.35
North Gower  1.50                     11.77 432.471.38      11.48 421.63
Huron FOB    1.35                     11.62 426.960.75      10.85 398.49
Kent FOB     1.15                     11.42 419.610.70      10.80 396.65
Lambton FOB  1.15                     11.42 419.610.70      10.80 396.65
Middlesex FOB1.35 1.35 1.36  N/A      11.62 426.960.84      10.94 401.79

PROCESSORS
Hamilton     1.76 1.77 1.79 1.85      12.03 442.031.34      11.44 420.16
Windsor      1.61 1.63 1.59 1.60      11.88 436.521.27      11.37 417.59
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton     1.89  N/A  N/A  N/A      12.16 446.801.36      11.46 420.90
Pt. Stanley   N/A                                  N/A
Sarnia        N/A                                  N/A
Owen Sound    N/A                                  N/A
Sorel QC     2.00                     12.27 450.851.94      12.04 442.21

Toledo El.   -0.21                    10.06 369.64-0.44      9.65 354.61


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.1629 up 0.0004
Chicago wheat closed higher to sharply higher.
MAR15      HI     6.50  3/4             JUL15   HI         6.48
           LOW        6.17                      LOW     6.19  1/2
           CLOSE  6.48  1/2  Up 25 1/4          CLOSE   6.46  3/4  Up 20 3/4

Minni wheat closed higher.
MAR15      HI     6.61  1/4             JUL15   HI      6.69  1/2
           LOW    6.30  1/4                     LOW        6.47
           CLOSE  6.55   Up 20 3/4              CLOSE   6.63  3/4  Up 17

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 1.78          1.37            0.90          0.51
CAD $/bu              8.26          7.85            7.39          7.06
CAD $/tonne         303.59        288.59          271.45        259.24


Direct MarkHarvest 2014                 Harvest 2015
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    0.86    N/A    N/A     1.00   0.40    N/A
London      1.57    1.10   0.70    N/A    0.91    1.02   0.32    N/A
Hensall     1.70    N/A    0.85    N/A    1.00    N/A    0.30    N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.20    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A    0.86    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.45    N/A
Norwich     1.70    N/A    0.85    N/A    1.10    N/A    0.40    N/A
Mt. Elgin    N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Kent Bridge 1.70    N/A    0.85    N/A    1.10    N/A    0.30    N/A
Chatham      N/A    1.05   0.85    N/A    N/A     1.00   0.30    N/A
Brigden      N/A    N/A    0.85    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.30    N/A
Palmerston   N/A    1.05   0.85   0.30    N/A     1.05   0.30    N/A
Varna       1.70    1.10   0.85    N/A    1.00    1.00   0.30    N/A
Mitchell    1.70    1.10   0.85    N/A    1.00    0.95   0.30    N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   0.53    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A   0.17

TERMINAL
Sarnia       N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Hamilton     N/A    N/A    1.04    N/A    N/A     N/A    0.72    N/A
Pt. Stanley  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM  N/A    N/A        1.37N/A    N/A     N/A        1.32N/A

Toledo El. N/A                          6.34US          7.40CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.97          1.44            0.56          0.36
CAD $/bu              7.44          7.91            7.03          7.00
CAD $/tonne         273.36        290.53          258.33        257.04

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat             285.00 - 310.00
Bayport Oats              310.00
Bayport Barley            270.00
FOB Hm Soymeal            600.00 - 628.66
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm       175.00

--

Wednesday, December 17, 2014
COMMODITY	PERIOD	PRICE	WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT	Mar	4.08	↑	         14	cents
Soybeans CBOT	Jan	10.27	↓	5	cents
Wheat CBOT	Mar	6.48	↑	60	cents
Wheat Minn.	Mar	6.55	↑	50	cents
Wheat Kansas	Mar	6.81	↑	60	cents
 	 	 			 
Canadian $	Mar	0.8608	↓	72	points



CORN:   
On the charts:  Our target of $4.10 as mentioned in our Oct 29th issue has been met as I write this column. With the expiry of the December contract we have left a small gap to the upside on the weekly chart.  This small but important signal coincidently gapped up to the bottom of our initial gap. If prices decline to the $3.98 level on March and closes this new gap, we could see further price deterioration but if we close above the $4.20 area, our next target is $4.40 and then $4.75 based on the lead month. Both short term and medium term indicators in bullish mode but the main trend is still down. 
SOYBEANS:

On the charts:  For those of you who follow the technical picture, we will be quoting the March 15 contract prices from here forward as the first notice day for the January contract will be lost among the holidays.
Short term indicators remain positive but we need a close above the $10.65-75 level to re-ignite interest by the bulls.  If we can attain this, we should see an attempt at the $11.00 level into a winter rally.  On the flip side, we see support at $9.75 and then an important level at $9.00 based on the March contract.  If that should fail to hold we could see a selloff to much lower levels. Keep in mind that the long term indicators are still negative and the main trend is still down.  Any rallies into the $11-11.50 area should be viewed as possible selling opportunities at this point.






WHEAT:
Looking back, I think it is safe to say that the Oct 1st low will be the low for 2014. 
On the charts:  Bullish trend continues as we closed on December 17 at $6.49 on March futures. This is our projected overhead resistance level ($6.50-$6.60) on the March contract. Short and medium term indicators remain bullish. If we can’t overcome this $6.60 resistance, we should pull back into the holidays with support at $6.00 and then $5.75.  If  we see a close above $6.60 on March, it would signal long term trend indicators turning positive and we could see a major breakout to the upside with the next major resistance pegged around $7.00- 7.25 based on the March contract.

HARVEST CASH PRICES AS OF CLOSE DECEMBER 17, 2014

SWW @ $303.39/mt ($8.26/bu), SRW @ $271.27/mt ($7.38/bu),
HRW @ $288.40/mt ($7.85/bu), HRS @ $259.07/mt ($7.05/bu).



Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario 

-- 
John Jordan 
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News 
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus 
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577 
Fax. 519-674-1530 

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