[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Marty Hibbs GFO Grain Commenary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Aug 13 15:27:28 EDT 2014


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, August 13
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0929 down 0.0015
Chicago corn closed narrowly mixed.

      SEP14   HI 3.61                         DEC14    HI 3.71  1/2
             LOW 3.54  1/2                            LOW 3.65  1/2
            CLOSE3.58   Down  1/2                   CLOSE 3.69  3/4  Up  3/4

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt  Adj $/bu   $/mt Cntrct  Adj   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +DEC14+DEC14+DEC14
CK Low       0.40                        3.98 156.69 -0.05         3.65 143.60
CK High      0.45                        4.03 158.65  0.05         3.75 147.53
CK Avg       0.43                   0.09 4.01 157.67  0.03 -0.31   3.73 146.88
Essex Cty    0.62                        4.20 165.35  0.05         3.75 147.53
Mdsx Low     0.40                        3.98 156.69  0.05         3.75 147.53
Mdsx High    0.45                        4.03 158.65  0.05         3.75 147.53
Mdsx Avg     0.43                   0.09 4.01 157.67  0.05 -0.29   3.75 147.53
Hensall      0.43                        4.01 157.67  0.05         3.75 147.53
Bruce        0.40                        3.98 156.69  0.05         3.75 147.53
Putnam       0.40                        3.98 156.69  0.05         3.75 147.53
Burford      0.45                        4.03 158.65  0.05         3.75 147.53
Port Perry   0.45                        4.03 158.65  0.05         3.75 147.53
Norfolk      0.50                        4.08 160.62  0.05         3.75 147.53
Palmerston  N/A                                       0.05         3.75 147.53
Varna        0.45                        4.03 158.65  0.05         3.75 147.53
Trenton      0.50                        4.08 160.62  0.05         3.75 147.53
Winchester   0.50                        4.08 160.62  0.30         4.00 157.37
North Gower  0.60                        4.18 164.56  0.32         4.02 158.16
Huron FOB    0.75                        4.33 170.46  0.00         3.70 145.56
Kent FOB     0.50                        4.08 160.62  0.05         3.75 147.53
Lamb FOB     0.50                        4.08 160.62  0.05         3.75 147.53
Mdsx FOB     0.75N/A   N/A   N/A         4.33 170.46  0.10         3.80 149.50
FOB SW Que   1.40                        4.98 196.05  0.54         4.24 166.82
Track        1.00                        4.58 180.31N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth     0.85  0.90  1.10  0.35      4.43 174.40  0.40         4.10 161.31
Jhnstwn-Eth  0.85N/A     1.15  0.65      4.43 174.40  0.65         4.35 171.15
Aylmer-Eth   0.70  0.70N/A     0.25      4.28 168.50  0.25         3.95 155.41
Sarn-Eth     0.80  0.80  0.80  0.15      4.38 172.43  0.15         3.85 151.47
Cllngwd-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                     N/A*
London-Ing   0.90  0.95  1.00  0.40      4.48 176.37  0.40         4.10 161.31
Pt.Colb-Ing  0.95  1.00  1.05  0.45      4.53 178.34  0.45         4.15 163.28
Cardnl-Ing  N/A    1.05  1.10  0.50                   0.50         4.20 165.25
W O Feed     1.28                   1.18 4.86 191.33

US Rep       1.30                   1.20 4.88 192.12
Toledo El.  -0.11                        3.47 136.64 -0.31         3.39 133.52

TRANSFER
Sarnia      N/A                                     N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A                                     N/A
Hamilton    N/A                                       0.35         4.05159 1/3

MID SD CRN                                            0.00         3.69 3/4
HI SD CRN                                             0.05         3.74 3/4
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0929 down 0.0015
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.

       NOV14   HI 10.66               NOV14    HI 10.66
              LOW 10.46                       LOW 10.46
             CLOSE10.46  3/4  Down 12 3/4   CLOSE 10.46  3/4  Down 12 3/4

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt Adj.  $/bu  $/mt BasisAdj.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +NOV1+NOV1+NOV14
CK Low       2.77                     13.24 486.390.35      10.82 397.48
CK High      2.85                     13.32 489.330.40      10.87 399.31
CK Average   2.80                1.83 13.27 487.620.37 -0.6010.83 398.09
Essex Cty    2.68                     13.15 483.090.33      10.80 396.74
Mdsx Low     2.77                     13.24 486.390.34      10.81 397.11
Mdsx High    2.90                     13.37 491.170.35      10.82 397.48
Mdsx Average 2.84                1.86 13.30 488.780.35 -0.6310.81 397.29
Hensall      2.88                     13.34 490.250.35      10.82 397.48
Bruce        2.90                     13.37 491.170.35      10.82 397.48
Putnam       2.90                     13.37 491.170.35      10.82 397.48
Burford      2.80                     13.27 487.500.37      10.84 398.21
Port Perry   2.77                     13.24 486.390.34      10.81 397.11
Norfolk      2.80                     13.27 487.500.35      10.82 397.48
Palmerston   2.90                     13.37 491.170.35      10.82 397.48
Varna         N/A                                 0.40      10.87 399.31
Trenton      2.90                     13.37 491.170.40      10.87 399.31
Winchester   2.90                     13.37 491.170.85      11.32 415.85
North Gower  3.19                     13.66 501.830.86      11.33 416.21
Huron FOB    3.00                     13.47 494.850.45      10.92 401.15
Kent FOB     2.70                     13.17 483.820.35      10.82 397.48
Lambton FOB  2.70                     13.17 483.820.35      10.82 397.48
Middlesex FOB3.08  N/A  N/A  N/A      13.55 497.790.47      10.94 401.88

PROCESSORS
Hamilton     3.38 3.18 0.78 0.84      13.85 508.810.78      11.25 413.27
Windsor      2.90 0.55 0.55 0.62      13.37 491.170.55      11.02 404.82
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton     3.34  N/A  N/A  N/A      13.81 507.340.57      11.04 405.56
Pt. Stanley   N/A                                  N/A
Sarnia        N/A                                  N/A
Owen Sound    N/A                                  N/A
Sorel QC     2.05                     12.52 459.941.50      11.97 439.73

Toledo El.   1.82                     12.29 451.67-0.25     10.22 375.38


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0929 down 0.0015
Chicago wheat closed slightly to moderately lower.
SEP14      HI     5.44  1/4             JUL15   HI      5.96  1/4
           LOW    5.27  1/4                     LOW     5.88  1/4
           CLOSE  5.28   Down 10                CLOSE   5.88  1/2  Down 3 3/4

Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
SEP14      HI     6.12  3/4             JUL15   HI      6.50  3/4
           LOW        6.03                      LOW        6.43
           CLOSE  6.04  1/2  Down 4 1/2         CLOSE   6.44   Down 3 1/4

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 14   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.49          0.71            0.22         -0.09
CAD $/bu              5.77          5.99            5.50          5.95
CAD $/tonne         212.01        220.04          201.97        218.63


Direct MarkHarvest 2014                 Harvest 2015
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    0.60   0.00    N/A    N/A     N/A    -0.34   N/A
London      0.51    0.57   -0.03   N/A    0.20    0.63   -0.34   N/A
Hensall     0.55    N/A    0.00    N/A    0.25    N/A    -0.35   N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A    0.00    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A   0.10    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A    0.05    N/A    N/A     N/A    -0.45   N/A
Norwich     0.65    N/A    0.00    N/A    0.25    N/A    -0.35   N/A
Mt. Elgin    N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Kent Bridge 0.65    N/A    0.00    N/A    0.25    N/A    -0.35   N/A
Chatham      N/A    0.60   0.05    N/A    N/A     0.50   -0.35   N/A
Brigden      N/A    0.60   0.05    N/A    N/A     0.50   -0.35   N/A
Palmerston   N/A    0.78   0.01   -0.30   N/A     0.50   -0.37   N/A
Varna       0.55    0.70   0.00    N/A    0.15    0.55   -0.30   N/A
Mitchell    0.55    0.55   0.00    N/A    0.25    0.45   -0.35   N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   -0.77   N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    N/A     N/A   -0.23   N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

TERMINAL
Sarnia       N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Hamilton     N/A    N/A    0.45    N/A    N/A     N/A    -0.29   N/A
Pt. Stanley  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM     1.20N/A        0.71N/A        1.26N/A        0.76N/A

Toledo El. 5.40US         5.90CA        5.71US          6.23CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 15        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                 0.22          0.60           -0.22         -0.39
CAD $/bu              6.10          6.49            5.67          6.05
CAD $/tonne         224.25        238.31          208.19        222.45

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat             290.00
Bayport Oats              320.00
Bayport Barley            270.00
FOB Hm Soymeal            648.94 - 657.76
DDG's FOB Srn & Aylm       140.00


Wednesday, August 13, 2014
COMMODITY	PERIOD	PRICE	WEEKLY MOVEMENT
Corn CBOT	Sep	3.58	↓	5	cents
Soybeans CBOT	Aug	12.64	↑	24	cents
Wheat CBOT	Sep	5.28	↓	40	cents
Wheat Minn.	Sep	6.04	↓	38	cents
Wheat Kansas	Sep	6.04	↓	52	cents
 	 	 			 
Canadian $	Sept	0.9146	↓	05	points




CORN:
In Tuesday’s monthly WASDE report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate for the domestic corn yield., However, the change was an increase of  2.1 bushels per acre (to 167.4 bushels per acre) which was less than half the amount that analyst had expected.
The apparent underestimate seems to point to crop measuring techniques which will be adjusted as the crop matures and benefits are seen from ideal growing conditions for much of the corn growing states. There is a widespread sentiment among market participants that future yield surveys will find more bushels based on heavy ear weights.  It all comes down to the number of kernels per ear once the crop has matured. September WASDE numbers could show yields closer to the 170-175 bushels per acre.
The report temporarily pushed December corn futures to new lows before rebounding and closing positive on the day at $3.69 a bushel in Chicago. Trend indicators are still negative, however, Tuesday’s action gave me my first short term buy signal since last May.  But don’t get too excited, the trend is still negative and it looks like we have a lot of work to do before we get a trend change. Major upside resistance is pegged at $4 - $4.20 per bushel.


SOYBEANS:

The USDA report allowed the 2014-15 soybean ending stocks estimate to rise to 430 million bushels, up from 415 million in July. (Analysts had been looking for 409 million.) It was far above the tight 2013-14 ending stocks level of just 140 million. 
  
Last week, August beans were trading around the $12.20 mark and we anticipated a possible short covering move to the $13.00 level before the contract expired.  We got the $1.00 move in spades.  The August hit $13.29 before selling off.  With that said, we are now looking to September as the lead month and still showing the upward pressures of an inverted market.  Long term indicators still entrenched in a strong downtrend with overhead resistance on the September contract now at $11.30 and $11.60. 



WHEAT:

Although it was short lived, the Chicago wheat futures staged their most significant rally since the extended decline began in May. Expectations for improved export demand helped trigger a round of short covering ahead of USDA’s crop production report this week. Trade estimates for wheat production average 2.015 billion bushels, a 23 million bushel increase from last month.
The major trend is still negative and the September contract is now looking at support at the $5.20 level. There is a lot of work to do before we start to see any sustainable increases in futures prices.




2014 harvest prices as of the close of August 13 are as follows:
SWW at $212.07/mt ($5.77/bu), HRW at $220.10/mt ($5.59/bu), 
HRS at $218.69/mt ($5.95/bu), SRW at $202.03/mt ($5.50/bu).

--

-- 
John Jordan 
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News 
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus 
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577 
Fax. 519-674-1530 

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