[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report & Ahmed Chilmran Grain Commentary

Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Oct 3 16:26:43 EDT 2012


FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, October 3
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.987 up 0.0041
Chicago corn closed slightly lower.

      DEC12   HI 7.63  1/2                    DEC12    HI 7.63  1/2
             LOW 7.47                                 LOW 7.47
            CLOSE7.56  3/4  Down 1 1/2              CLOSE 7.56  3/4  Down 1 1/2

            OLD CROP BASIS                          NEW CROP BASIS
Location    Spot   1mt   2mt   3mt  Adj $/bu   $/mt Cntrct  Adj   $/bu   $/mt
ELEVATORS        +DEC12+MAR13+MAR13
CK Low      -0.35                        7.22 284.14 -0.60         6.97 274.30
CK High     -0.35                        7.22 284.14 -0.60         6.97 274.30
CK Avg      -0.35                  -0.27 7.22 284.14 -0.60 -0.56   6.97 274.30
Essex Cty   N/A                                      -0.60         6.97 274.30
Mdsx Low    -0.35                        7.22 284.14 -0.60         6.97 274.30
Mdsx High   -0.35                        7.22 284.14 -0.60         6.97 274.30
Mdsx Avg    -0.35                  -0.27 7.22 284.14 -0.60 -0.56   6.97 274.30
Hensall     -0.35                        7.22 284.14 -0.60         6.97 274.30
Bruce       N/A                                      -0.60         6.97 274.30
Putnam      -0.35                        7.22 284.14 -0.60         6.97 274.30
Burford     N/A                                      -0.60         6.97 274.30
Port Perry  N/A                                      -0.75         6.82 268.39
Norfolk     N/A                                      -0.60         6.97 274.30
Palmerston  -0.30                        7.27 286.11 -0.70         6.87 270.36
Varna       N/A                                      -0.60         6.97 274.30
Trenton     N/A                                      -0.65         6.92 272.33
Winchester  N/A                                      -0.30         7.27 286.11
North Gower N/A                                      -0.55         7.02 276.27
Huron FOB   N/A                                      -0.60         6.97 274.30
Kent FOB    N/A                                      -0.60         6.97 274.30
Lamb FOB    N/A                                      -0.60         6.97 274.30
Mdsx FOB    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                     -0.60         6.97 274.30
FOB SW Que  N/A                                      -0.65         6.92 272.33
Track        0.15                        7.72 303.82N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth    N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                    N/A
Aylmer-Eth  -0.10 -0.75 -0.35 -0.30      7.47 293.98 -0.75         6.82 268.39
Sarn-Eth    -0.40 -0.40 -0.30 -0.30      7.17 282.17 -0.40         7.17 282.17
Cllngwd-Eth N/A  N/A   N/A   N/A                     N/A*
London-Cas  N/A   -0.45 -0.35 -0.30                  -0.30         7.27 286.11
Pt.Colb-Cas -0.20 -0.40 -0.30 -0.25      7.37 290.05 -0.30         7.27 286.11
Cardnl-Cas  -0.20 -0.50 -0.30 -0.25      7.37 290.05 -0.25         7.32 288.08
W O Feed     0.29                   0.30 7.86 309.34

US Rep       0.60                   0.61 8.17 321.54
Toledo El.   0.04                        7.61 299.48  0.04         7.61 299.48

TRANSFER
Sarnia      N/A                                     N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A                                     N/A
Hamilton    N/A                                      -0.65         6.92272 1/3

MID SD CRN                                           -0.60         6.96 3/4
HI SD CRN                                            -0.60         6.96 3/4
*Wet Bid


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.987 up 0.0041
Chicago soybeans closed mixed.

       NOV12   HI 15.43  3/4          NOV13    HI 13.40
              LOW 15.04                       LOW 13.09
             CLOSE15.31  3/4  Up 1 1/4      CLOSE 13.37  1/2  Up 12 1/2

             OLD CROP                             NEW CROP
Location     Basis 1mt  2mt  3mt Adj.  $/bu  $/mt BasisAdj.  $/bu  $/mt
ELEVATORS         +NOV1+JAN1+JAN13
CK Low       -1.08                    14.24 523.14-1.20     12.18 447.35
CK High      -1.00                    14.32 526.08-1.00     12.38 454.70
CK Average   -1.05               -0.9014.27 524.30-1.06-0.9812.32 452.56
Essex Cty    -1.05                    14.27 524.24-0.85     12.53 460.21
Mdsx Low     -1.05                    14.27 524.24-1.05     12.33 452.87
Mdsx High    -1.04                    14.28 524.61-1.02     12.36 453.97
Mdsx Average -1.05               -0.8914.27 524.42-1.04-0.9612.34 453.42
Hensall      -1.05                    14.27 524.24-1.08     12.30 451.95
Bruce        -1.05                    14.27 524.24-1.05     12.33 452.87
Putnam       -1.10                    14.22 522.40-1.05     12.33 452.87
Burford      -1.04                    14.28 524.61-1.02     12.36 453.97
Port Perry   -1.07                    14.25 523.51-1.05     12.33 452.87
Norfolk      -1.03                    14.29 524.98-1.00     12.38 454.70
Palmerston   -1.10                    14.22 522.40-1.30     12.08 443.68
Varna        -1.05                    14.27 524.24-1.10     12.28 451.03
Trenton      -0.95                    14.37 527.92-1.19     12.19 447.72
Winchester   -0.79                    14.53 533.79 N/A
North Gower  -0.75                    14.57 535.26-1.03     12.35 453.60
Huron FOB    -0.95                    14.37 527.92-1.05     12.33 452.87
Kent FOB     -1.08                    14.24 523.14-1.05     12.33 452.87
Lambton FOB  -1.08                    14.24 523.14-1.05     12.33 452.87
Middlesex FOB-0.88 N/A  N/A  N/A      14.44 530.49-0.86     12.52 459.85

PROCESSORS
Hamilton     -0.60-0.45-0.40-0.40     14.72 540.78-0.50     12.88 473.08
Windsor      -0.82-0.67-0.55-0.54     14.50 532.69-0.62     12.76 468.67
Winchester    N/A                                  N/A

TRANSFER
Hamilton     -0.48 N/A  N/A  N/A      14.84 545.18-0.65     12.73 467.56
Pt. Stanley   N/A                                  N/A
Sarnia        N/A                                  N/A
Owen Sound    N/A                                  N/A
Sorel QC     -0.10                    15.22 559.15-0.36     13.02 478.22

Toledo El.   -0.23                    15.09 554.46-0.48     12.90 473.91


Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 0.987 up 0.0041
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC12      HI     8.78  1/2             JUL13   HI         8.54
           LOW        8.58                      LOW        8.35
           CLOSE  8.73   Up 1 1/2               CLOSE   8.51  1/2  Up 2 3/4

Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC12      HI     9.34  3/4             SEP13   HI      9.14  3/4
           LOW    9.15  1/4                     LOW        8.95
           CLOSE  9.29  3/4  Up 5 1/2           CLOSE   9.13   Up 7

GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 12   Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                -0.58         -0.38           -0.93         -0.93
CAD $/bu              8.15          8.35            7.80          8.36
CAD $/tonne         299.38        306.65          286.65        307.29


Direct MarkHarvest 2012                 Harvest 2013
           DELIVERED BASIS              DELIVERED BASIS
Location   SWW(C) HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C)  HRW(C)  SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll     N/A    N/A    -1.35   N/A    N/A    -1.00   -1.20   N/A
London      -0.96  -0.96   -1.31   N/A   -0.96   -0.96   -1.26   N/A
Hensall     -1.00   N/A    -1.35   N/A   -0.75    N/A    -1.20   N/A
Trenton      N/A    N/A    -1.40   N/A    N/A     N/A    -1.40   N/A
Winchester   N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Essex        N/A    N/A    -1.45   N/A    N/A     N/A    -1.24   N/A
Norwich     -1.00   N/A    -1.35   N/A   -0.75    N/A    -1.20   N/A
Mt. Elgin    N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Kent Bridge -1.00   N/A    -1.35   N/A   -0.75    N/A    -1.20   N/A
Chatham      N/A   -0.95   -1.29   N/A    N/A    -0.95   -1.23   N/A
Brigden      N/A   -0.95   -1.29   N/A    N/A    -0.95   -1.23   N/A
Palmerston   N/A   -0.82   -1.28  -1.27   N/A    -0.81   -1.13  -1.22
Varna       -0.95  -1.00   -1.35   N/A   -0.75   -1.00   -1.20   N/A
Mitchell    -1.00  -1.00   -1.35   N/A   -0.75   -0.95   -1.20   N/A
Thornton     N/A    N/A     N/A   -1.55   N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
North Gower  N/A    N/A     N/A   -1.00   N/A     N/A     N/A   -1.01

TERMINAL
Sarnia       N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A
Hamilton     N/A    N/A    -1.20   N/A    N/A     N/A    -0.75   N/A
Pt. Stanley  N/A    N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A     N/A     N/A    N/A

PROCESSORS
Toledo FM  N/A    N/A        0.01N/A    N/A     N/A       -0.15N/A

Toledo El. 8.47US         8.39CA        8.39US          8.34CA

GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 13        Soft White(C)  Hard Red(C)    Soft Red(C)    Red Spring(M)
Basis                -0.35         -0.05           -0.70         -0.90
CAD $/bu              8.17          8.47            7.82          8.23
CAD $/tonne         300.11        311.07          287.32        302.48

(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange

FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat             360.00 - 365.00
Bayport Oats              328.00
Bayport Barley            345.00
FOB Hm Soymeal            525.15 - 526.25
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 275.00 - 285.00


Friday October 3, 2012 			
Commodity	Period	Price  	Weekly Movement - Wednesday to Friday	 	 
 	 	 	 	 	 
Corn CBOT	Dec	7.5675	↑	0.50	cents
Soybeans CBOT	Nov	15.3175	↓	62.50	cents
Wheat CBOT	Dec	8.7300	↓	27.20	cents
Wheat Minn.	Dec	9.2975	↓	23.50	cents
Wheat Kansas	Dec	8.9100	↓	31.50	cents
 	 	 	 	 	 
Canadian $	Dec	1.0103	↓	46.00	points

The EU debt situation will not be the only main course served at upcoming G7 meeting in Tokyo, where country leaders will discuss the state of the economy over dinner. Another important item on the agenda will likely be the rising concern over the directions of US fiscal policy.  The US’s ‘fiscal cliff’ – the anticipation of a significantly large reduction in budget deficit followed by a corresponding economic slowdown if a combination of certain programs are allowed either to be reenacted such as tax increases or expired such as unemployment relief, and defense spending cuts among others - is contentious item and will likely receive much attention in the weeks to come. Meanwhile, the TSX was slightly lower over lower oil prices. Housing sales of houses in Canada are expected to be slowing down and prices are likely to follow suit according to the Royal LePage’s house price survey. The loonie was trading slightly lower than its US counterpart.
Corn
Corn fell in Chicago over speculation that rains seen earlier in August improved crop prospects. Lower demand for corn for ethanol is showing according to the US department of energy. Corn for ethanol is estimated to have fallen about 3% last week. According to Ontario crop specialist Peter Johnson, corn is generally looking well. He indicated that moisture of harvested corn in several cases being around 22%. Yields are as low as 40 bu/acre in few isolated cases. Cases of ear drop is reported for beginning harvest, although ear drop is reported to probably have less of an effect on yield than one might expect. Majority of corn is the 27% to 28% moisture, causing growers to delay harvest. There is a bit of low test weight corn for no particular reason.
Soybeans
Soybeans fell in Chicago on improved weather conditions. The USDA estimated crop condition for soybeans to have improved in three of the past four weeks. Essex County reports show soybean harvest progressing well with yields in the 38 – 45 bu/acre. Later beans are expected to have higher yields benefiting from the later rains. Quality is good with the exception for tough straw hampering harvest efforts. It was estimated that Essex is 40 to 45% harvested. Soybean yields of 50 - 60 bu/ac were reported for the Dresden – Wallaceburg area.

WHEAT
Wheat fell in Chicago as favourable crop news surfaced coupled with weak macro-economic data. The state buyer in Egypt, the world's top wheat importer, bought 180,000 tonnes of French wheat along with 60,000 tonnes of Argentine wheat. No black sea wheat was recorded this time around, strategically showing a shift towards Western European and South American wheat. The trend could suggest a likelihood of shifting back to North American wheat as more supplies are built up. 
Contract prices for October 3rd, 2012 at 4pm, are as follows:
SWW at $297.74 per tonne ($8.10/bu), HRW at $303.19 per tonne ($8.25/bu.),
HRS at $299.28 per tonne ($8.15/bu.), and SRW at $285.23 per tonne ($7.76 /bu.).


-- 
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink 
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