[Farmmarketnews] Ahmed Chilmeran Grain Commentary for Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Thu Apr 12 09:34:56 EDT 2012

Wednesday April 11, 2012 

Commodity
Period
Price  
Weekly Movement - Wednesday to Friday

Corn CBOT
May
6.36
¯
24
cents

Soybeans CBOT
May
14.22
¯  
9 ¼ 
cents

Wheat CBOT
May
6.28
¯  
18 ¼ 
cents

Wheat Minn.
May
8.38 ¼ 
¯  
12 ¼ 
cents

Wheat Kansas
May
6.44
¯  
36 ¼ 
cents

Canadian $
June
0.9944
¯  
118
points

CORN
As of August 31, 2013, the U.S. corn surplus will be larger than analysts
expected, as more wheat is used to feed livestock. Unsold supplies at the end of
the marketing year will total 801 million bushels, unchanged from the March
forecast and down from 1.128 billion a year earlier, the U.S. Department of
Agriculture reported this past Tuesday. This will be the lowest figure in 16
years but a bearable three-week supply.
As of April 8th, 2012, the 18 primary corn producing states have planted 7% of
their corn, compared to 3% one year prior. 15 of the states have planted more
than their 5-year historical average. This early planting is the result of the
recent warm weather.

SOYBEANS
Drought in major soybean producers Brazil and Argentina cut their crops more
than expected, according to a recent USDA report. Their report cut its forecast
of the crop in South America for the fourth month in a row. The Brazilian crop
was lowered by 3.6 percent from March's estimate and Argentina's by 3 percent.
Since December, the USDA has cut its projection of Brazil's crop by 12 percent,
and Argentina's by 13 percent.
These latest cuts due to South American drought will lower global soybean
production by 2 percent from the March outlook, and draw down stocks by 20
percent, to the smallest level since2008/09, said USDA.

WHEAT
Wheat prices continue to fall as an excess of supply expands global stockpiles
to an all-time high. Inventories will gain 7.1 percent to 210 million metric
tons this year. According to the International Grains Council, output in the
next year is estimated to be 681 million tons. 
Winter wheat conditions have outperformed 2011's conditions with 61% of the
winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition, which is a 25% increase from
last year. Winter wheat in very poor or poor condition is at 10%, a 26% decrease
from one year prior.
Spring wheat has also been planted at an accelerated pace, compared to its
historical average. As of April 8th, 2012, the 6 primary spring wheat producing
states have planted 21% of their crop, compared to their 5-year average of only
5%.

Contract prices for April 11th, 2012 at the market close, are as follows:
SWW at $228.35 per tonne ($6.21/bu.), HRW at $256.06 per tonne ($6.97 /bu.),
HRS at $293.10 per tonne ($7.98 /bu.), and SRW at $232.04 per tonne ($6.32
/bu.).
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577

Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca 
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink 
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