[Farmmarketnews] Todd Austin Grain Commentary

[Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report]

August 31 Report
 
CORN
There is a continued fear of a smaller U.S. corn crop. Recent crop reports
rated U.S. corn at 54 percent good to excellent, down 3 percentage points from
last week. This is the worst rated crop since 2005 and the sixth worst rated on
this date in 25 years.
Harvest in dried down corn areas, due to persistent drought, in Illinois and
eastern corn belt show yields well below normal levels. The lack of moisture is
prompting many to lower crop prospects. 
Farm futures magazine has recently estimated that U.S. corn plantings for this
upcoming year will be increased to 93.87 million acres.
SOYBEANS
The U.S. soybean crop rated 57 percent good to excellent, down 2 percentage
points from previous reports. Trade continues to downgrade crop prospects with
the persistent dryness in the eastern growing region. There is anticipation that
further downgrades are possible. One private analyst has lowered yield
predictions to 40.5 bushels per acre. Any smaller yield ideas could require a
degree of U.S. demand rationing.
Soybean futures have climbed on speculation that adverse weather will hamper
production in the U.S. and Brazil. More than a quarter of the Midwest will
remain too dry for soybean pods to fill with beans in the next two weeks, even
after today’s rain in parts of soybean belt, according to the Commodity Weather
Group. Lack of precipitation in northern and central Brazil has depleted soil
moisture, which is unlikely to be replenished before seeding starts in mid-
September, according to Oil World. 
Farm Futures magazine is estimating that U.S. soybean planting will increase to
76.9 million acres next year.
WHEAT
There is increased concern over prospects of the continuing drought in south
western U.S. hard red winter wheat areas, as this may limit plantings that
normally occur in the month of September. There have been some recent talks
about the potential for rainfall over the next 10 days in some of the HRW areas.
Any improvement in soil moisture would certainly be welcome news.
Farm Futures magazine estimates that U.S. all wheat plantings to increase 3.4
million acres to 58.63 million acres. A decrease in HRW production could produce
subclass rationing shortages, though overall U.S. all wheat Supply & Demand
might not change much due to the estimated acreage increase.
Harvest contract prices for August 31, 2011 at the close of the market, are as
follows:
SWW at $265.01 per tonne ($7.21 /bu.), SRW at $261.41 per tonne ($7.11 /bu.),
HRW at $295.60 per tonne ($8.05 /bu.), and HRS at $338.08 per tonne ($9.20
/bu.).
 
 
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca 
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20110901/bb23b4e4/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Wheatcom.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 265731 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20110901/bb23b4e4/attachment-0001.pdf>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Wheatcom.docx
Type: application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document
Size: 314025 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20110901/bb23b4e4/attachment-0001.bin>
-------------- next part --------------
An embedded and charset-unspecified text was scrubbed...
Name: Wheatcom.txt
URL: <http://lists.sentex.ca/pipermail/farmmarketnews/attachments/20110901/bb23b4e4/attachment-0001.txt>