[Farmmarketnews] Todd Austin Grain Commentary

Wed Jul 27 15:59:43 EDT 2011

Wednesday July 27, 2011

Commodity
Period
Price  
Weekly Movement

Corn CBOT
Sept
6.91 ½    
↑
10   
cents

Soybeans CBOT
Aug
13.75 ¾    
↓
6 ¾     
cents

Wheat CBOT
Sept 
7.04 ¾    
↑
27 ¼    
cents

Wheat Minn.
Sept 
8.51     
↑
23  
cents

Wheat Kansas
Sept 
7.88 ¼  
↑
18 ¼  
cents

Canadian $
Sept. 
 1.05170
↔
0 
points

CORN
The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a report late Monday afternoon that
showed 62 percent of the U.S. corn crop is rated good to excellent, down 4
percent from last week and 10 percent from the same time last year.
Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, and Nebraska were all seen declining. The
northern portion of the Corn Belt appeared to have fared the best as there was
excess moisture, which helped the corn through recent hot weather.
Argentina is expected to produce 26 million tons of corn in the 2011-2012
marketing year, up 18 percent, according to the USDA in a recent report. Corn
exports will total 18 million tons, up from 14.5 million a year earlier,
according to this report.
SOYBEANS
Brazil will produce 55 million tons of corn, the same as the prior year, and
72.5 million tons of soybeans, also on par with 2010-2011, USDA data shows.
Soybean shipments will gain 10 percent, USDA data shows. Exporters will ship 8
million tons of corn, down from 8.5 million a year earlier, according to the
report.
 Palm oil climbed for the second day on speculation that worsening soybean crop
conditions in the U.S. may boost demand for the tropical oil. Prices are gaining
because of the weather conditions in the U.S. An estimated 62 percent of the
U.S. soybean crop is in good or excellent condition as of July 24, compared with
64 percent a week earlier and 67 percent a year ago, according to the USDA.
WHEAT
Wheat had enjoyed gains boosted by spill-over support from corn, if not by the
USDA crop report, which showed 74% of spring wheat as good to excellent; a rise
of one point on the week. More will be known about the state of the spring crop
after a tour this week by the Wheat Quality Council, which is expected to report
weak sowing. The spring wheat that has been planted is in good condition.

Wheat harvest continues in Ontario. Quality remains good; while yields remain
variable, there have been reports of higher yields in well-managed lighter
soils. 
The U.S. dollar weakened against most of the major currencies, including the
Canadian dollar. Republicans and Conservatives remain at odds over plans to
raise the U.S. debt limit and prevent a default before an Aug. 2 deadline.
According to Wall Street bond dealers, this stalemate may cost the U.S. its AAA
rating, which could add $100 billion a year to government costs, as well as slow
down economic growth.
Harvest contract prices for July 27, 2011 at the close of the market, are as
follows:
SWW at $251.45 per tonne ($6.84 /bu.), SRW at $237.48 per tonne ($6.46 /bu.),
HRW at $272.41 per tonne ($7.41 /bu.), and HRS at $300.80 per tonne ($8.19
/bu.).
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 63577

Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca 
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink 
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