[Farmmarketnews] Wednesday Ontario Commodity Report and Seamus Hpban Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Wed Sep 15 16:13:02 EDT 2010
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Wed, September 15
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0282 up 0.0060
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
DEC10 HI 4.98 1/2 DEC10 HI 4.98 1/2
LOW 4.91 3/4 LOW 4.91 3/4
CLOSE4.95 1/4 Up 1/4 CLOSE 4.95 1/4 Up 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC10+DEC10+MAR11
CK Low -0.80 4.15 163.48 -0.80 4.15 163.48
CK High -0.75 4.20 165.45 -0.75 4.20 165.45
CK Avg -0.78 -0.92 4.17 164.26 -0.78 -0.96 4.17 164.13
Essex Cty -0.75 4.20 165.45 -0.75 4.20 165.45
Mdsx Low -0.80 4.15 163.48 -0.80 4.15 163.48
Mdsx High -0.75 4.20 165.45 -0.75 4.20 165.45
Mdsx Avg -0.78 -0.93 4.17 164.13 -0.78 -0.96 4.17 164.13
Hensall -0.75 4.20 165.45 -0.75 4.20 165.45
Bruce -0.80 4.15 163.48 -0.80 4.15 163.48
Putnam -0.80 4.15 163.48 -0.80 4.15 163.48
Princeton -0.75 4.20 165.45 -0.75 4.20 165.45
Durham -0.80 4.15 163.48 -0.80 4.15 163.48
Norfolk N/A -0.80 4.15 163.48
Trenton N/A -0.70 4.25 167.41
Winchester N/A -0.65 4.30 169.38
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.70 4.25 167.41 -0.70 4.25 167.41
Kent FOB N/A -0.80 4.15 163.48
Lamb FOB N/A -0.80 4.15 163.48
Mdsx FOB -0.80 N/A N/A N/A 4.15 163.48 -0.80 4.15 163.48
FOB SW Que N/A -0.20 4.75 187.10
Track -0.48 4.48 176.27 N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A -0.55 N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth -1.00 N/A -0.75 -0.60 3.95 155.60 -0.75 4.20 165.45
Sarn-Eth N/A -0.55 -0.50 N/A -0.55 4.40 173.32
Cllngwd-Eth -0.55 N/A N/A N/A 4.40 173.32 -0.25 4.70 185.13
London-Cas N/A -0.45 -0.60 -0.50 -0.45 4.50 177.26
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A N/A -0.50 -0.45 -0.50 4.45 175.29
Cardnl-Cas N/A N/A -0.45 -0.30 -0.45 4.50 177.26
W O Feed -0.30 -0.33 4.65 183.16
US Rep -0.30 -0.33 4.65 183.16
Toledo El. -0.44 4.51 177.56 -0.50 4.46 175.39
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.75 4.20 165.45 -0.75 4.20 165.45
Pt. Stanley N/A -0.80 4.15 163.48
Hamilton N/A -0.50 4.45175 2/7
MID SD CRN -0.77 1/2 4.17 3/4
HI SD CRN -0.75 4.20 1/4
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0282 up 0.0060
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
NOV10 HI 10.45 NOV10 HI 10.45
LOW 10.34 1/4 LOW 10.34 1/4
CLOSE10.42 1/2 Up 7 CLOSE 10.42 1/2 Up 7
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV10
CK Low -0.60 9.83 361.01-0.60 9.83 361.01
CK High -0.60 9.83 361.01-0.55 9.88 362.84
CK Average -0.60 -0.90 9.83 361.01-0.59-0.97 9.84 361.37
Essex Cty N/A -0.60 9.83 361.01
Mdsx Low -0.60 9.83 361.01-0.60 9.83 361.01
Mdsx High -0.60 9.83 361.01-0.55 9.88 362.84
Mdsx Average -0.60 -0.90 9.83 361.01-0.57-0.95 9.86 362.11
Hensall -0.60 9.83 361.01-0.60 9.83 361.01
Bruce N/A -0.60 9.83 361.01
Putnam N/A -0.60 9.83 361.01
Princeton N/A -0.62 9.81 360.27
Durham N/A -0.58 9.85 361.74
Norfolk N/A -0.58 9.85 361.74
Trenton N/A -0.45 9.98 366.52
Winchester N/A -0.21 10.22 375.34
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.50 9.93 364.68-0.50 9.93 364.68
Kent FOB N/A -0.63 9.80 359.90
Lambton FOB N/A -0.63 9.80 359.90
Middlesex FOB N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.39 10.04 368.72
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 0.07 N/A N/A N/A 10.50 385.63-0.16 10.27 377.17
Windsor -0.10 N/A N/A N/A 10.33 379.38-0.18 10.25 376.44
Winchester -0.10 10.33 379.38-0.10 10.33 379.38
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.20 10.23 375.70
Pt. Stanley N/A -0.65 9.78 359.17
Sarnia N/A -0.17 10.26 376.81
Owen Sound N/A -0.60 9.83 361.01
Sorel QC N/A 0.55 10.98 403.26
Toledo El. -0.29 10.14 372.47-0.29 10.13 372.39
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0282 up 0.0060
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC10 HI 7.44 1/4 JUL11 HI 7.49
LOW 7.23 LOW 7.34 1/2
CLOSE 7.26 3/4 Down 9 1/4 CLOSE 7.39 Down 5 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC10 HI 7.72 3/4 SEP11 HI 7.45 1/2
LOW 7.53 1/2 LOW 7.35 3/4
CLOSE 7.58 1/2 Down 5 1/4 CLOSE 7.40 3/4 Down 1
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.23 -1.03 -1.69 -1.07
CAD $/bu 6.04 6.24 5.57 6.52
CAD $/tonne 221.78 229.34 204.77 239.45
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -1.40 -2.10 N/A N/A -1.30 -2.10 N/A
London -1.25 -1.41 -2.08 N/A -1.51 -1.31 -2.13 N/A
Hensall -1.30 N/A -2.15 N/A -1.30 N/A -2.15 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -1.75 N/A N/A N/A -2.05 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -0.65 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -2.26 N/A
Norwich -1.30 N/A -2.15 N/A -1.30 N/A -2.15 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -1.30 N/A -2.15 N/A -1.30 N/A -2.15 N/A
Chatham N/A -1.15 -2.20 N/A N/A -1.05 -2.20 N/A
Brigden N/A -1.15 -2.20 N/A N/A -1.05 -2.20 N/A
Palmerston N/A -1.02 -2.08 -0.62 N/A -1.17 -2.12 -0.73
Mitchell -1.30 -1.20 -2.15 N/A -1.30 -1.20 -2.15 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -1.16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.11 -0.85 -1.77 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -1.65 N/A N/A N/A -1.40 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -2.15 N/A N/A N/A -1.85 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A -0.82 N/A 0.79 N/A -0.77 N/A
Toledo El. 6.27US 6.45CA 6.26US 6.49CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.18 -0.98 -1.75 -1.13
CAD $/bu 6.21 6.41 5.64 6.28
CAD $/tonne 228.08 235.69 207.14 230.65
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 245.00
Bayport Oats 260.00
Bayport Barley 215.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 367.63 - 375.34
DDG's FOB Sarnia 140.00
Wednesday September 15, 2010
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Dec.
4.9525
↑
29
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov.
10.4250
↓
9 1/2
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec.
7.2675
↑
15 3/4
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec.
7.5850
↑
25 1/3
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec.
7.5975
↑
47 1/4
cents
Canadian $
Dec
0.9716
↑
89
points
CORN
Growing fears about US yields sent prices to 23 month highs. Friday’s USDA
report cut US corn yield estimates from 165 b/ac to 162.5 b/ac, however much of
the trade is now predicting yields of below 160 b/ac. US crops are now rated 68%
good/excellent with the harvest 11% complete compared with 6% last year.
While stocks are expected to be tight in the coming year, there is a growing
realization that stocks will most likely become tighter still the following
year. The dramatic loss of Russian and European crops this year has removed the
buffer from world inventories leaving the trade vulnerable to a multi-year grain
shortage problem. Without dramatic acreage expansion and perfect weather,
supplies may drop to the tightest level since 1995-96.
With a shortage looming and ethanol trading nearly 10 cents/gallon above
gasoline, the trade is watching closely for any changes in US ethanol policy.
Decisions are expected on the expanded blending mandate, tax credits and
subsidies by the end of the year.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans rose early this week as dry conditions continue in northern Brazil
with little relief seen for 10 to 14 days. The trade believes the La Nina
weather pattern could dramatically reduce South American production prospects
this coming year. The market is therefore sending a signal to South American
producers to plant more soybeans. Meanwhile Northern Chinese crops have
experienced frost 2 weeks ahead of normal.
The US soybean crop appears to be enduring the hot conditions much better than
corn. Yield reports are generally robust with some areas setting new records.
Even with normal crops, growing demand from China will tighten world oilseed
carryout to use ratios. In this environment oilseeds are unlikely to relinquish
significant acreage to coarse grains, as will be required to meet demand in that
market.
WHEAT
Wheat markets fell early in the week when the Australian Government released
estimates for crop size and exports which were both around 2 mmt above the
USDA’s most recent forecast.
The global shortage of quality wheat is expected to lift demand for North
American wheat however logistics may limit shipments.
Persistent light rains continue to push the harvest in Western Canada further
behind schedule. Current progress is about 23% compared with 50% in a normal
year. Meanwhile grain shipments from the St. Lawrence are up 51 percent from
last year.
Russian planting concerns and corn price action are expected to continue to
support wheat values.
Contract prices for September 15th, 2010 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $221.11 per tonne ($6.02/bu.), SRW at $204.20 per tonne ($5.56/bu.), HRW
at $228.82 per tonne ($6.23/bu.), and HRS at $238.65 per tonne ($6.50/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 1577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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