[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Sep 9 15:57:25 EDT 2010
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, September 9
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0328 down 0.0031
Chicago corn closed moderately higher.
DEC10 HI 4.72 DEC10 HI 4.72
LOW 4.59 1/2 LOW 4.59 1/2
CLOSE4.70 3/4 Up 8 1/4 CLOSE 4.70 3/4 Up 8 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC10+DEC10+MAR11
CK Low -0.70 4.01 157.77 -0.70 4.01 157.77
CK High -0.65 4.06 159.74 -0.65 4.06 159.74
CK Avg -0.66 -0.83 4.05 159.34 -0.67 -0.86 4.04 159.08
Essex Cty -0.65 4.06 159.74 -0.65 4.06 159.74
Mdsx Low -0.70 4.01 157.77 -0.70 4.01 157.77
Mdsx High -0.65 4.06 159.74 -0.65 4.06 159.74
Mdsx Avg -0.67 -0.83 4.04 159.08 -0.67 -0.86 4.04 159.08
Hensall -0.63 4.08 160.72 -0.63 4.08 160.72
Bruce -0.65 4.06 159.74 -0.65 4.06 159.74
Putnam -0.65 4.06 159.74 -0.65 4.06 159.74
Princeton -0.65 4.06 159.74 -0.65 4.06 159.74
Durham -0.70 4.01 157.77 -0.70 4.01 157.77
Norfolk N/A -0.70 4.01 157.77
Trenton N/A -0.60 4.11 161.71
Winchester N/A -0.45 4.26 167.61
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.70 4.01 157.77 -0.60 4.11 161.71
Kent FOB N/A -0.70 4.01 157.77
Lamb FOB N/A -0.70 4.01 157.77
Mdsx FOB -0.70 N/A N/A N/A 4.01 157.77 -0.70 4.01 157.77
FOB SW Que N/A -0.20 4.51 177.45
Track -0.28 4.43 174.50 N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth -0.70 N/A -0.50 -0.50 4.01 157.77 -0.50 4.21 165.64
Sarn-Eth N/A -0.45 -0.40 N/A -0.45 4.26 167.61
Cllngwd-Eth -0.40 N/A N/A N/A 4.31 169.58 -0.20 4.51 177.45
London-Cas N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cardnl-Cas N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
W O Feed -0.23 -0.26 4.48 176.27
US Rep 0.00 -0.03 4.71 185.33
Toledo El. -0.45 4.26 167.80 -0.50 4.21 165.64
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.65 4.06 159.74 -0.65 4.06 159.74
Pt. Stanley N/A -0.62 4.09 160.92
Hamilton N/A -0.41 4.30169 1/5
MID SD CRN -0.67 1/2 4.03 1/4
HI SD CRN -0.65 4.05 3/4
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0328 down 0.0031
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
NOV10 HI 10.53 NOV10 HI 10.53
LOW 10.33 3/4 LOW 10.33 3/4
CLOSE10.46 Down 2 3/4 CLOSE 10.46 Down 2 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV10
CK Low -0.60 9.86 362.29-0.60 9.86 362.29
CK High -0.40 10.06 369.64-0.50 9.96 365.97
CK Average -0.52 -0.89 9.95 365.42-0.56-0.99 9.90 363.91
Essex Cty -0.42 10.04 368.91-0.52 9.94 365.23
Mdsx Low -0.60 9.86 362.29-0.60 9.86 362.29
Mdsx High -0.50 9.96 365.97-0.50 9.96 365.97
Mdsx Average -0.55 -0.92 9.91 364.13-0.55-0.98 9.91 364.13
Hensall -0.60 9.86 362.29-0.60 9.86 362.29
Bruce -0.60 9.86 362.29-0.60 9.86 362.29
Putnam -0.60 9.86 362.29-0.60 9.86 362.29
Princeton -0.57 9.89 363.40-0.57 9.89 363.40
Durham N/A -0.52 9.94 365.23
Norfolk N/A -0.51 9.95 365.60
Trenton N/A -0.30 10.16 373.32
Winchester N/A -0.13 10.33 379.56
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.50 9.96 365.97-0.50 9.96 365.97
Kent FOB N/A -0.56 9.90 363.76
Lambton FOB N/A -0.56 9.90 363.76
Middlesex FOB N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.33 10.13 372.21
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.12 N/A N/A N/A 10.34 379.93-0.12 10.34 379.93
Windsor 0.10 N/A N/A N/A 10.56 388.01-0.08 10.38 381.40
Winchester -0.03 10.43 383.24-0.03 10.43 383.24
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.05 10.51 386.18
Pt. Stanley N/A -0.40 10.06 369.64
Sarnia -0.08 10.38 381.40-0.13 10.33 379.56
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A 0.55 11.01 404.55
Toledo El. -0.16 10.30 378.63-0.26 10.20 374.77
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0328 down 0.0031
Chicago wheat closed moderately higher to higher.
DEC10 HI 7.43 JUL11 HI 7.43 3/4
LOW 7.06 LOW 7.12 1/4
CLOSE 7.38 Up 27 CLOSE 7.38 3/4 Up 17 3/4
Minni wheat closed moderately higher to higher.
DEC10 HI 7.63 1/2 SEP11 HI 7.40
LOW 7.30 LOW 7.16
CLOSE 7.59 1/2 Up 26 1/4 CLOSE 7.34 3/4 Up 17
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.19 -0.98 -1.65 -1.02
CAD $/bu 6.19 6.40 5.73 6.57
CAD $/tonne 227.53 235.14 210.41 241.42
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -1.50 -2.05 N/A N/A -1.30 -2.10 N/A
London -1.25 -1.41 -2.08 N/A -1.48 -1.27 -2.10 N/A
Hensall -1.30 N/A -2.10 N/A -1.30 N/A -2.10 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -1.75 N/A N/A N/A -1.80 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -0.65 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -2.24 N/A
Norwich -1.30 N/A -2.10 N/A -1.30 N/A -2.10 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -1.30 N/A -2.10 N/A -1.30 N/A -2.10 N/A
Chatham N/A -1.10 -2.15 N/A N/A -1.10 -2.15 N/A
Brigden N/A -1.10 -2.15 N/A N/A -1.10 -2.15 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.97 -2.04 -0.56 N/A -1.12 -2.08 -0.68
Mitchell -1.30 -1.20 -2.10 N/A -1.30 -1.20 -2.10 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -1.06 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.22 -0.85 -1.73 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -1.55 N/A N/A N/A -1.55 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -2.00 N/A N/A N/A -2.00 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A -0.77 N/A 0.83 N/A -0.73 N/A
Toledo El. 6.28US 6.50CA 6.26US 6.52CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.15 -0.94 -1.72 -1.10
CAD $/bu 6.24 6.44 5.66 6.25
CAD $/tonne 229.15 236.80 208.10 229.53
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 245.00
Bayport Oats 260.00
Bayport Barley 205.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 386.37
DDG's FOB Sarnia 135.00
Wednesday September 8, 2010
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Dec.
4.6625
↓
1/2
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov.
10.5200
↑
46 1/2
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec.
7.1100
↑
2 1/4
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec.
7.3325
↑
7 1/4
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec.
7.1250
↓
14 1/4
cents
Canadian $
Dec
0.9627
↑
126
points
CORN
Corn prices remained steady this week with the trade waiting on Fridays USDA
report.
The trade is not expecting the September USDA yield estimate to fully factor in
the recent dryness and summer heat in the US. Analysts expect only a slight
decrease from the August estimate of 165 b/ac. However if the dry conditions
continue some see the eventual yield being no larger than 158 b/ac.
Questions around US yield combined with uncertainty around EU and Russian crops
is leading to a wide variety of supply/demand scenarios. Friday’s USDA report
will likely provide some clarity however the market will likely remain volatile
for some time.
Record demand combined with tight carryout has produced a very wide inverse
July – Dec spread. However there is a growing need for several million
additional corn acres next year, particularly if the wheat and soybean rallies
continue.
If corn prices pull further higher ethanol blending margins will enter negative
territory, possibly leading to calls for the US government to temporarily waive
the ethanol mandate.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans surged as early harvest activity in the US produced smaller than
expected yields. Surveys are still suggesting near record 44 bu per acre yield,
however the trade is nervous that with larger demand from China and the EU, a
small decline in yields could find stocks remaining at very tight levels next
year and perhaps beyond.
The trade is watching dry weather in parts of Brazil and fear of La Nina
pattern this year may prevent another large crop in South America despite
Brazilian acres being up 3-4% from last year. In the long term, western
hemisphere acreage must increase over 6 million acres annually to meet demand.
The Chinese soybean crushing capacity has reportedly reached 100 mmt per annum.
To fully utilize this capacity China will need to dramatically increase soybean
imports from current levels of around 1 mmt per week.
WHEAT
Wheat markets had a mixed week ahead of the USDA report and with suggestions
that Russia might end its export ban sooner than expected. The Former Soviet
Union has received some rain however many areas remain dry with fall planting
continued to be delayed.
The USDA is expected to again lower Former Soviet Union and EU wheat crop
estimates in Friday’s supply/demand reports. US stocks should remain adequate
to burdensome but world supply/demand will most likely continue to tighten.
With one quarter of the crop year gone cumulative US wheat export loadings
stand at 262 million bu compared with 201 last year.
Contract prices for September 8th, 2010 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $217.44 per tonne ($5.92/bu.), SRW at $200.30 per tonne ($5.45/bu.), HRW
at $225.05 per tonne ($6.12/bu.), and HRS at $231.62 per tonne ($6.30/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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