[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Seamus Hoban Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Sep 2 16:05:44 EDT 2010
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, September 2
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.052 up 0.0023
Chicago corn closed slightly higher.
DEC10 HI 4.47 3/4 DEC10 HI 4.47 3/4
LOW 4.43 LOW 4.43
CLOSE4.47 1/2 Up 3/4 CLOSE 4.47 1/2 Up 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC10+DEC10+MAR11
CK Low -0.65 3.83 150.58 -0.60 3.88 152.55
CK High -0.60 3.88 152.55 -0.55 3.93 154.52
CK Avg -0.61 -0.85 3.87 152.22 -0.58 -0.83 3.89 153.21
Essex Cty -0.65 3.83 150.58 -0.55 3.93 154.52
Mdsx Low -0.65 3.83 150.58 -0.60 3.88 152.55
Mdsx High -0.60 3.88 152.55 -0.55 3.93 154.52
Mdsx Avg -0.62 -0.86 3.86 151.90 -0.58 -0.83 3.89 153.21
Hensall -0.60 3.88 152.55 -0.58 3.90 153.54
Bruce -0.60 3.88 152.55 -0.60 3.88 152.55
Putnam -0.60 3.88 152.55 -0.60 3.88 152.55
Princeton -0.65 3.83 150.58 -0.55 3.93 154.52
Durham -0.60 3.88 152.55 -0.60 3.88 152.55
Norfolk -0.60 3.88 152.55 -0.60 3.88 152.55
Trenton -0.55 3.93 154.52 -0.55 3.93 154.52
Winchester N/A -0.40 4.08 160.43
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.60 3.88 152.55 -0.50 3.98 156.49
Kent FOB -0.60 3.88 152.55 -0.60 3.88 152.55
Lamb FOB -0.60 3.88 152.55 -0.60 3.88 152.55
Mdsx FOB -0.60 N/A N/A N/A 3.88 152.55 -0.60 3.88 152.55
FOB SW Que N/A -0.20 4.28 168.30
Track -0.25 4.23 166.33 N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth -0.45 -0.45 -0.45 -0.45 4.03 158.46 -0.45 4.03 158.46
Sarn-Eth N/A -0.35 -0.35 N/A -0.35 4.13 162.39
Cllngwd-Eth -0.40 N/A N/A N/A 4.08 160.43 -0.20 4.28 168.30
London-Cas N/A -0.20 -0.40 -0.30 -0.40 4.08 160.43
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A N/A -0.30 -0.15 -0.30 4.18 164.36
Cardnl-Cas -0.25 N/A -0.30 -0.10 4.23 166.33 -0.30 4.18 164.36
W O Feed -0.15 -0.20 4.33 170.27
US Rep 0.00 -0.05 4.48 176.17
Toledo El. -0.45 4.02 158.33 -0.51 3.97 156.22
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.65 3.83 150.58 -0.55 3.93 154.52
Pt. Stanley N/A -0.60 3.88 152.55
Hamilton -0.30 4.18 164.36 -0.40 4.08160 3/7
MID SD CRN -0.57 1/2 3.901
HI SD CRN -0.55 3.92 1/2
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.052 up 0.0023
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
NOV10 HI 10.10 1/4 NOV10 HI 10.10 1/4
LOW 10.00 3/4 LOW 10.00 3/4
CLOSE10.09 Up 3 1/2 CLOSE 10.09 Up 3 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV10
CK Low -0.17 9.92 364.50-0.36 9.73 357.52
CK High -0.05 10.04 368.91-0.28 9.81 360.46
CK Average -0.12 -0.67 9.97 366.19-0.34-0.90 9.75 358.32
Essex Cty -0.11 9.98 366.70-0.32 9.77 358.99
Mdsx Low -0.15 9.94 365.23-0.35 9.74 357.88
Mdsx High 0.04 10.13 372.21-0.29 9.80 360.09
Mdsx Average -0.07 -0.6210.02 368.05-0.31-0.88 9.78 359.23
Hensall -0.15 9.94 365.23-0.35 9.74 357.88
Bruce -0.15 9.94 365.23-0.35 9.74 357.88
Putnam -0.15 9.94 365.23-0.35 9.74 357.88
Princeton -0.07 10.02 368.17-0.34 9.75 358.25
Durham 0.02 10.11 371.48-0.32 9.77 358.99
Norfolk N/A -0.30 9.79 359.72
Trenton N/A -0.15 9.94 365.23
Winchester N/A 0.04 10.13 372.21
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB 0.00 10.09 370.74-0.30 9.79 359.72
Kent FOB N/A -0.35 9.74 357.88
Lambton FOB N/A -0.35 9.74 357.88
Middlesex FOB-0.05 N/A N/A N/A 10.04 368.91-0.15 9.94 365.23
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 0.29 N/A N/A N/A 10.38 381.400.15 10.24 376.26
Windsor 0.34 N/A N/A N/A 10.43 383.240.08 10.17 373.68
Winchester -0.10 9.99 367.070.10 10.19 374.42
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.15 10.24 376.26
Pt. Stanley N/A -0.30 9.79 359.72
Sarnia 0.18 10.27 377.360.08 10.17 373.68
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC N/A 0.70 10.79 396.46
Toledo El. -0.08 10.01 367.65-0.26 9.83 361.04
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.052 up 0.0023
Chicago wheat closed mixed.
DEC10 HI 7.23 JUL11 HI 7.23 3/4
LOW 7.06 LOW 7.13 3/4
CLOSE 7.13 3/4 Up 5 CLOSE 7.15 Down 3/4
Minni wheat closed mixed.
DEC10 HI 7.40 1/2 SEP11 HI 7.22
LOW 7.23 1/4 LOW 7.12
CLOSE 7.35 Up 9 CLOSE 7.13 1/4 Down 4 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.09 -0.88 -1.56 -0.92
CAD $/bu 6.05 6.26 5.57 6.43
CAD $/tonne 222.24 229.99 204.81 236.28
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -1.25 -2.00 N/A N/A -1.10 -1.90 N/A
London -1.03 -1.30 -1.98 N/A -1.40 -1.19 -2.03 N/A
Hensall -1.30 N/A -2.05 N/A -1.30 N/A -2.05 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -1.72 N/A N/A N/A -1.80 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -0.57 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -2.10 N/A
Norwich -1.30 N/A -2.05 N/A -1.30 N/A -2.05 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -1.30 N/A -2.05 N/A -1.30 N/A -2.05 N/A
Chatham N/A -1.25 -2.05 N/A N/A -1.10 -2.05 N/A
Brigden N/A -1.25 -2.05 N/A N/A -1.10 -2.05 N/A
Palmerston N/A -1.20 -2.28 -0.47 N/A -1.03 -2.00 -0.58
Mitchell -1.30 -1.20 -2.05 N/A -1.30 -1.20 -2.05 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.93 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.16 -0.89 -1.67 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -1.50 N/A N/A N/A -1.50 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -1.95 N/A N/A N/A -1.95 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A -0.67 N/A 0.93 N/A -0.66 N/A
Toledo El. 6.03US 6.35CA 6.02US 6.36CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.08 -0.87 -1.66 -1.03
CAD $/bu 6.07 6.28 5.49 6.11
CAD $/tonne 223.10 230.86 201.76 224.36
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 240.00 - 245.00
Bayport Oats 265.00
Bayport Barley 215.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 382.73 - 384.93
DDG's FOB Sarnia 135.00
Wednesday September 1, 2010
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Sep.
4.245
↑ 3.25
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov.
10.08
↑ 4
cents
Wheat CBOT
Sep.
6.755
↓ 3.5
cents
Wheat Minn.
Sep.
6.975
↓ 16.75
cents
Wheat Kansas
Sep.
6.8775
↓ 13
cents
Canadian $
Sep.
0.9501
↑ 74
points
CORN
Corn values followed wheat prices to finish slightly higher.
The US harvest continues to produce disappointing yield results in the eastern
and southern corn-belt areas. This is being attributed to late season heat and
dryness, particularly in Iowa which is experiencing its third hottest summer
since 1983. As a result the trade is expecting to see yield and production
estimates downgraded in the coming week. Some are also suggesting that the crops
green biomass has masked smaller ear size and weight.
Despite the dryness, climatologists do not expect the US corn-belt to enter
drought. If true, this will extend an unprecedented 22 year drought-free run.
FCStone have flagged 2010-11 as a year of a potentially dramatic acreage
shortage in the US combined with a sharp reduction in world buffer stocks. This
could set the stage for even more explosive price action in 2011-12.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans were slightly higher for the week.
The hot and dry weather coming into harvest is not expected to impact US
soybean crops as much as it has corn. Yield estimates are not expected to fall
to the same degree as corn, due to record pod counts and a much reduced aphid
threat. Still US crops are experiencing sudden death syndrome.
Private estimates put Argentina’s coming soybean crop at 52 mmt and Brazil at
70 mmt. These estimates are 7 mmt above the USDA’s combined estimate for the
two countries. If true, this could leave soybeans lagging wheat and corn price
action for another crop cycle.
Reports from South America also suggest Argentina may increase its biodiesel
export tax from 20 to 32 percent. This comes after the Government last week
announcing plans to reduce export taxes for soybeans.
WHEAT
Wheat values fell lower during the week before making up some lost ground when
Egypt purchased 225,000 tonnes of US wheat. Germany was also seen purchasing US
spring wheat suggesting the country’s recently harvested crop has some quality
issues.
A world shortage of quality milling wheat is expected to see demand pushed to
Canada and the US. Pakistan floods have apparently decimated the countries seed
supplies which will likely impact on autumn wheat planting.
Substantial areas of the Former Soviet Union wheat growing areas remain dry.
Ukraine has slightly downgraded its winter wheat planting estimate, while
Russian officials continue to squash speculation their country may need to
import grain in the coming year.
Meanwhile Australia is experiencing a mixed season with very good rains
received in the eastern states and dry conditions continuing in Western
Australia.
Contract prices for September 1st, 2010 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $222.02 per tonne ($6.04/bu.), SRW at $193.36 per tonne ($5.26/bu.), HRW
at $226.07 per tonne ($6.15/bu.), and HRS at $234.42 per tonne ($6.38/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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