[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Seamus Hoban Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Oct 7 16:23:53 EDT 2010
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, October 7
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0166 up 0.0093
Chicago corn closed slightly to moderately higher.
DEC10 HI 5.02 1/2 DEC11 HI 4.83 3/4
LOW 4.87 3/4 LOW 4.75 1/4
CLOSE4.98 1/4 Up 9 3/4 CLOSE 4.81 1/4 Up 4 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC10+MAR11+MAR11
CK Low -0.75 4.23 166.63 -0.65 4.16 163.87
CK High -0.70 4.28 168.59 -0.65 4.16 163.87
CK Avg -0.74 -0.84 4.24 166.95 -0.65 -0.76 4.16 163.87
Essex Cty -0.75 4.23 166.63 -0.65 4.16 163.87
Mdsx Low -0.75 4.23 166.63 -0.65 4.16 163.87
Mdsx High -0.70 4.28 168.59 -0.65 4.16 163.87
Mdsx Avg -0.73 -0.83 4.25 167.28 -0.65 -0.76 4.16 163.87
Hensall -0.70 4.28 168.59 -0.63 4.19 164.85
Bruce -0.75 4.23 166.63 -0.65 4.16 163.87
Putnam -0.75 4.23 166.63 N/A
Princeton -0.75 4.23 166.63 -0.65 4.16 163.87
Durham -0.75 4.23 166.63 -0.65 4.16 163.87
Norfolk -0.75 4.23 166.63 -0.65 4.16 163.87
Trenton -0.75 4.23 166.63 -0.75 4.06 159.93
Winchester -0.65 4.33 170.56 -0.60 4.21 165.84
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.70 4.28 168.59 -0.60 4.21 165.84
Kent FOB -0.75 4.23 166.63 -0.65 4.16 163.87
Lamb FOB -0.75 4.23 166.63 -0.65 4.16 163.87
Mdsx FOB -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 N/A 4.23 166.63 -0.65 4.16 163.87
FOB SW Que -0.45 4.53 178.44 N/A
Track -0.40 4.58 180.41 N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A -0.35 N/A
Aylmer-Eth N/A N/A -0.75 -0.65 N/A
Sarn-Eth -0.50 -0.50 -0.40 -0.35 4.48 176.47 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth -0.50 N/A N/A N/A 4.48 176.47 -0.35 4.46 175.68
London-Cas -0.60 -0.60 -0.60 -0.55 4.38 172.53 N/A
Pt.Colb-Cas -0.55 -0.55 -0.55 -0.40 4.43 174.50 N/A
Cardnl-Cas -0.50 -0.50 -0.30 -0.25 4.48 176.47 N/A
W O Feed -0.40 -0.42 4.58 180.41
US Rep -0.25 -0.27 4.73 186.31
Toledo El. -0.44 4.54 178.89 -0.48 4.33 170.54
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.75 4.23 166.63 -0.65 4.16 163.87
Pt. Stanley -0.75 4.23 166.63 -0.75 4.06 159.93
Hamilton -0.65 4.33 170.56 -0.45 4.36171 3/4
MID SD CRN -0.72 1/2 4.25 3/4
HI SD CRN -0.70 4.28 1/4
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0166 up 0.0093
Chicago soybeans closed slightly higher.
NOV10 HI 10.74 1/2 NOV11 HI 10.70
LOW 10.61 LOW 10.57
CLOSE10.65 Up 3 CLOSE 10.62 1/4 Up 4 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+JAN1+JAN11
CK Low -0.85 9.80 360.09-0.90 9.72 357.24
CK High -0.75 9.90 363.76-0.76 9.86 362.38
CK Average -0.81 -1.03 9.84 361.41-0.81-1.05 9.81 360.47
Essex Cty -0.79 9.86 362.29-0.82 9.80 360.18
Mdsx Low -0.86 9.79 359.72-0.83 9.79 359.81
Mdsx High -0.83 9.82 360.82-0.78 9.84 361.65
Mdsx Average -0.85 -1.06 9.80 360.21-0.80-1.04 9.82 360.79
Hensall -0.85 9.80 360.09-0.80 9.82 360.92
Bruce -0.85 9.80 360.09-0.80 9.82 360.92
Putnam -0.85 9.80 360.09-0.80 9.82 360.92
Princeton -0.80 9.85 361.93-0.90 9.72 357.24
Durham -0.85 9.80 360.09-0.85 9.77 359.08
Norfolk -0.79 9.86 362.29-0.77 9.85 362.02
Trenton -0.60 10.05 369.27-0.70 9.92 364.59
Winchester -0.47 10.18 374.05-0.57 10.05 369.37
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.70 9.95 365.60-0.70 9.92 364.59
Kent FOB -0.84 9.81 360.46-0.77 9.85 362.02
Lambton FOB -0.84 9.81 360.46-0.77 9.85 362.02
Middlesex FOB-0.77 N/A N/A N/A 9.88 363.03-0.66 9.96 366.06
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.43 N/A N/A N/A 10.22 375.52-0.31 10.31 378.92
Windsor -0.37 N/A N/A N/A 10.28 377.73-0.44 10.18 374.14
Winchester -0.40 10.25 376.62-0.51 10.11 371.57
TRANSFER
Hamilton -0.60 N/A N/A N/A 10.05 369.27-0.35 10.27 377.45
Pt. Stanley -1.05 9.60 352.74-0.75 9.87 362.75
Sarnia -0.44 10.21 375.15-0.36 10.26 377.08
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 0.30 10.95 402.340.20 10.82 397.66
Toledo El. -0.49 10.16 373.33-0.54 10.08 370.40
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0166 up 0.0093
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC10 HI 6.76 1/4 JUL11 HI 7.22 1/4
LOW 6.56 1/2 LOW 7.05
CLOSE 6.59 1/4 Up 1 CLOSE 7.08 3/4 Up 1
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
DEC10 HI 7.22 SEP11 HI 7.30
LOW 7.03 1/4 LOW 7.22
CLOSE 7.06 1/2 Up 1 1/4 CLOSE 7.23 Up 3 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.19 -0.99 -1.65 -0.98
CAD $/bu 5.40 5.60 4.94 6.08
CAD $/tonne 198.33 205.83 181.47 223.54
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A N/A -2.10 N/A N/A -0.95 -2.10 N/A
London -1.32 -1.11 -2.03 N/A -1.51 -1.26 -2.17 N/A
Hensall -1.25 N/A -2.00 N/A -1.35 N/A -2.10 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -1.75 N/A N/A N/A -2.00 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -1.16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -2.46 N/A
Norwich -1.25 N/A -2.00 N/A -1.35 N/A -2.10 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -1.25 N/A -2.00 N/A -1.35 N/A -2.10 N/A
Chatham N/A -1.10 -2.00 N/A N/A -1.20 -2.05 N/A
Brigden N/A -1.10 -2.00 N/A N/A -1.20 -2.05 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.90 -1.95 -1.06 N/A -1.26 -2.06 -1.16
Mitchell -1.25 -1.20 -2.00 N/A -1.35 -1.20 -2.10 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -1.33 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.08 -0.77 -1.74 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -1.75 N/A N/A N/A -1.60 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -2.30 N/A N/A N/A -2.06 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A -0.68 N/A 0.42 N/A -0.86 N/A
Toledo El. 5.69US 5.81CA 5.96US 6.09CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.17 -0.97 -1.68 -1.06
CAD $/bu 5.92 6.12 5.41 6.17
CAD $/tonne 217.44 224.95 198.65 226.55
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 230.00 - 245.00
Bayport Oats 290.00
Bayport Barley 220.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 356.05 - 360.46
DDG's FOB Sarnia 135.00 - 160.00
Wednesday October 6, 2010
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Dec.
4.8850
↓
17 1/2
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov.
10.6200
↓
37
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec.
6.5800
↓
25 1/2
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec.
7.0525
↓
18 3/4
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec.
7.1000
↓
6
cents
Canadian $
Dec
0.9888
↑
202
points
CORN
Corn values fell sharply during the week before making up some ground ahead of
Fridays crucial USDA report. The trade is expecting the USDA to reduce the US
corn yield from 162.5 to around 160 b/ac. This result will reduce US corn stock
projections to much tighter levels, however this has likely already been
factored into current prices through speculators. Therefore an anti-climactic
report will likely produce a sell-off.
With US corn stocks down nearly 700 million bushels year to year and world
grain stocks down over 1.5 billion bushels, the world faces the potential of an
extremely tight 2011-12 world coarse grain situation. This setting the stage for
a likely long term bull market in feed grains
The trade continues to debate the size of this year’s Chinese corn crop and
also the level of inventory stocks at hand. Any decline in production will see
China again requiring imports and therefore further tightening global supplies.
This week the US dollar continued to lose ground against foreign currencies,
reaching a 15 year low. The US Federal Reserve is starting to draw criticism
from around the world for deliberately devaluing the US currency in an effort to
attract trade. The Canadian dollar reached a 5 month high during the week.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans finished lower for the week as the trade anticipates a larger US crop
production estimate in Friday’s USDA report. Soybean markets are experiencing
the opposite effect to corn with yield estimates coming in well ahead of
expectations leading to burdensome stock projections. The trade will be
watching closely the USDA’s acreage estimates for the coming year to see if
there is any significant shift from soybean to corn planted acres, to help
address the balance.
Strong demand from China will however absorb a large US crop, particularly if
South American production is reduced due to La Nina weather concerns.
According to Statistics Canada, Ontario soybean production has risen 8.1% from
2009 levels to 2.8 million metric tonnes. This will be the largest crop since
2006. Nationally, beginning stocks for 2010/11 increased by 36% to 300,000MT and
next year’s production is expected to increase by 14.8% to just over 4 million
bushels.
WHEAT
Wheat lost considerable ground this week before rallying ahead of Fridays USDA
report. The report is expected to estimate a smaller US crop but still should
project large US ending stocks. Wheat prices are more likely to be buffered by
corn and soybean price action in the aftermath of the report.
The Western Australian wheat crop continues rapidly deteriorate as it
approaches maturity, with conditions expected to remain dry for some time. As a
result the trade is expecting the USDA to drop its Australian wheat production
estimate by several million tonnes.
Some weather forecasters believe Russia and Europe may be heading towards the
coldest winter in 1000 years. With the summer heat wave already severely
delaying planting, crops may be further damaged from the cold.
Contract prices for October 6th, 2010 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $192.66 per tonne ($5.24/bu.), SRW at $175.93 per tonne ($4.79/bu.), HRW
at $200.09 per tonne ($5.45/bu.), and HRS at $208.27 per tonne ($5.67/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 1577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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