[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Seamus Hoban Grain Commentary. NB, Chicago closed for Thanksgiving. Minor changes to Corn basis
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Nov 25 15:42:05 EST 2010
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, November 25
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0083 down 0.0025
Chicago corn closed steady.
DEC10 HI 5.39 1/2 DEC11 HI 5.08 3/4
LOW 5.28 1/2 LOW 4.94
CLOSE5.38 3/4 Unchanged CLOSE 5.07 3/4 Unchanged
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR11+MAR11+MAR11
CK Low -0.70 4.69 184.54 -0.80 4.28 168.40
CK High -0.65 4.74 186.51 -0.75 4.33 170.37
CK Avg -0.68 -0.73 4.71 185.52 -0.78 -0.85 4.30 169.38
Essex Cty -0.70 4.69 184.54 -0.80 4.28 168.40
Mdsx Low -0.70 4.69 184.54 -0.80 4.28 168.40
Mdsx High -0.65 4.74 186.51 -0.75 4.33 170.37
Mdsx Avg -0.68 -0.73 4.70 185.19 -0.78 -0.86 4.29 169.05
Hensall -0.70 4.69 184.54 -0.75 4.33 170.37
Bruce -0.70 4.69 184.54 -0.80 4.28 168.40
Putnam -0.70 4.69 184.54 -0.80 4.28 168.40
Princeton -0.70 4.69 184.54 -0.80 4.28 168.40
Durham -0.95 4.44 174.70 -0.75 4.33 170.37
Norfolk -0.65 4.74 186.51 -0.75 4.33 170.37
Trenton -0.85 4.54 178.63 -0.85 4.23 166.43
Winchester -0.80 4.59 180.60 -0.80 4.28 168.40
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.75 4.64 182.57 -0.70 4.38 172.33
Kent FOB -0.65 4.74 186.51 -0.75 4.33 170.37
Lamb FOB -0.65 4.74 186.51 -0.75 4.33 170.37
Mdsx FOB -0.65 -0.70 -0.65N/A 4.74 186.51 -0.75 4.33 170.37
FOB SW Que -0.30 5.09 200.29 -0.45 4.63 182.18
Track -0.33 5.06 199.30N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.65 4.43 174.30
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.50 4.58 180.21
Aylmer-Eth N/A -0.95 -0.85 -0.85 N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A N/A -0.60 -0.35 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth -0.55N/A N/A N/A 4.84 190.44N/A
London-Cas N/A N/A -0.80 -0.75 -0.55 4.53 178.24
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A N/A N/A -0.55 -0.50 4.58 180.21
Cardnl-Cas N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.45 4.63 182.18
W O Feed -0.33 -0.34 5.06 199.10
US Rep 0.25 0.24 5.64 221.94
Toledo El. -0.03 5.36 210.90 -0.48 4.60 181.11
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.70 4.69 184.54 -0.80 4.28 168.40
Pt. Stanley -0.86 4.53 178.24 -0.83 4.25 167.22
Hamilton -0.64 4.75 186.90 -0.47 4.61181 2/5
MID SD CRN -0.67 1/2 4.71 1/4
HI SD CRN -0.65 4.73 3/4
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0083 down 0.0025
Chicago soybeans closed steady.
JAN11 HI 12.58 1/4 NOV11 HI 11.71 1/4
LOW 12.37 LOW 11.50
CLOSE12.55 Unchanged CLOSE 11.69 3/4 Unchanged
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+MAR11
CK Low -1.32 11.23 412.63-1.06 10.64 390.86
CK High -0.80 11.75 431.74-0.95 10.75 394.90
CK Average -0.93 -1.0511.62 426.81-1.00-1.1810.69 392.92
Essex Cty -1.24 11.31 415.57-1.03 10.67 391.96
Mdsx Low -1.27 11.28 414.47-1.05 10.65 391.23
Mdsx High -0.80 11.75 431.74-1.00 10.70 393.07
Mdsx Average -1.00 -1.1211.55 424.39-1.03-1.2110.66 391.84
Hensall -0.80 11.75 431.74-1.03 10.67 392.15
Bruce -0.80 11.75 431.74-1.00 10.70 393.07
Putnam -0.80 11.75 431.74-1.00 10.70 393.07
Princeton -1.24 11.31 415.57-1.01 10.69 392.70
Durham -0.95 11.60 426.23-1.07 10.63 390.49
Norfolk -0.73 11.82 434.31-0.98 10.72 393.80
Trenton -0.85 11.70 429.90-1.05 10.65 391.23
Winchester -0.67 11.88 436.52-0.88 10.82 397.48
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.70 11.85 435.41-0.90 10.80 396.74
Kent FOB -0.78 11.77 432.47-0.98 10.72 393.80
Lambton FOB -0.78 11.77 432.47-0.98 10.72 393.80
Middlesex FOB-0.86-0.54-0.61 N/A 11.69 429.53-0.88 10.82 397.48
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.54-0.39-0.32-0.26 12.01 441.29-0.58 11.12 408.50
Windsor -0.35-0.40-0.50-0.49 12.20 448.27-0.58 11.12 408.50
Winchester -0.57 11.98 440.19-0.78 10.92 401.15
TRANSFER
Hamilton -0.40-0.30 N/A N/A 12.15 446.44-0.60 11.10 407.76
Pt. Stanley -0.85 11.70 429.90-1.05 10.65 391.23
Sarnia -0.99 11.56 424.76-0.58 11.12 408.50
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 0.00 12.55 461.130.00 11.70 429.81
Toledo El. -0.23 12.32 452.60-0.54 11.16 410.04
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0083 down 0.0025
Chicago wheat closed steady.
DEC10 HI 6.56 JUL11 HI 7.32
LOW 6.42 1/4 LOW 7.18 1/2
CLOSE 6.47 1/2 Unchanged CLOSE 7.21 3/4 Unchanged
Minni wheat closed steady.
DEC10 HI 7.40 SEP11 HI 7.68 3/4
LOW 7.25 1/4 LOW 7.61 3/4
CLOSE 7.33 Unchanged CLOSE 7.67 Unchanged
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.60 -0.34 -0.60 -0.74
CAD $/bu 5.88 6.13 5.88 6.59
CAD $/tonne 216.04 225.31 216.04 242.19
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -0.65 -1.10 N/A N/A -0.95 -1.80 N/A
London -0.67 -0.62 -1.03 N/A -1.12 -1.02 -1.98 N/A
Hensall -0.55 N/A -0.95 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.85 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.85 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -0.73 N/A N/A N/A -1.00
Essex N/A N/A -1.14 N/A N/A N/A -1.96 N/A
Norwich -0.55 N/A -0.95 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.95 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -0.55 N/A -0.95 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.95 N/A
Chatham N/A -0.55 -0.92 N/A N/A -0.95 -1.92 N/A
Brigden N/A -0.55 -0.92 N/A N/A -0.95 -1.92 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.54 -1.01 -0.42 N/A -0.94 -1.65 -0.79
Mitchell -0.55 -0.45 -0.95 N/A -1.05 -0.90 -1.95 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.91 N/A N/A N/A -1.41
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia -0.04 0.16 -0.20 N/A -0.92 -0.61 -1.59 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -0.20 N/A N/A N/A -1.55 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -0.70 N/A N/A N/A -2.05 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A 0.87 -0.14 N/A 0.36 0.11 -0.50 N/A
Toledo El. 6.03US 6.08CA 6.19US 6.28CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.21 -0.86 -1.52 -0.95
CAD $/bu 6.01 6.36 5.70 6.72
CAD $/tonne 220.67 233.73 209.49 246.87
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 250.00 - 260.00
Bayport Oats 305.00
Bayport Barley 245.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 397.06 - 399.26
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 165.00 - 200.00
Wednesday November 24, 2010
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Dec.
5.3800
↑
12 1/4
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Jan.
12.5500
↑
50
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec.
6.4750
↑
15
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec.
7.3300
↑
22 1/2
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec.
7.1900
↑
29
cents
Canadian $
Dec
0.9886
↑
122
points
CORN
Corn futures finished higher for the week on news that the Chinese government
is being lobbied to provide farm support on account of severe corn shortages.
This news added to speculation that China will need to significantly ramp up
corn imports in the coming year.
The fate of US ethanol subsidies is expected to become clearer when President
Obama meets with Congressional leaders on November 30. Opposition to the
subsidies appears to be growing. However some analysts see the decision as
having minimal impact on the overall corn use, provided blending margins remain
positive and the mandated use requirements remain in place.
To meet 2011 demand the US will require record acreage and good weather to
produce yields at trend or better. Even then, US stocks will plunge to demand
rationing levels. Therefore a significant risk premium will be factored into
values at least until spring.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans finished higher for the week with the trade responding to further
sales of US beans to China. Overall US exports are up over 18% from a year ago
with US shipments to China up 11%. Total Chinese soy imports are up 13% year to
year.
The trade is now expecting the USDA to boost both their crush and export
forecasts in mid December, and perhaps also in subsequent S&D updates. Private
analysts see much larger demand ahead which will drop US carryout to below 100
million bushels vs USDA’s 185 million bushel estimate in November. As a result
many believe the November 2011 futures are dramatically undervalued at present.
Many areas of Brazil and Argentina have received only 50 – 70% of normal
moisture for November.
WHEAT
Wheat values followed corn and soybeans higher during the week.
Early in the week wheat markets fell sharply following North/South Korea
conflict. South Korea was the fifth largest customer for U.S. wheat last year
and the third-largest buyer ( http://www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/myrkaug.htm
)of corn. The market rallied once it appeared the attack was likely a once-off.
The trade is monitoring continued dryness in the Middle East where poor crops
could trigger a dramatic increase in wheat imports. Meanwhile Russia is expected
to remain out of the wheat export market next year, barring a large jump in
spring wheat plantings.
The Eastern Australia wheat-belt is expecting rain in the coming days to
further delay harvest. Very good yields had been expected, however wheat quality
is now in jeopardy.
Contract prices for November 24th, 2010 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $216.68 per tonne ($5.90/bu.), SRW at $216.68 per tonne ($5.90/bu.), HRW
at $225.97 per tonne ($6.15/bu.), and HRS at $242.90 per tonne ($6.61/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 1577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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