[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Seamus Hoban Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Nov 18 15:27:14 EST 2010
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, November 18
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0174 down 0.0033
Chicago corn closed moderately higher to higher.
DEC10 HI 5.46 1/2 DEC11 HI 5.15
LOW 5.26 LOW 4.99
CLOSE5.41 3/4 Up 16 CLOSE 5.08 1/2 Up 9 1/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR11+MAR11+MAR11
CK Low -0.80 4.62 181.78 -0.80 4.29 168.69
CK High -0.80 4.62 181.78 -0.80 4.29 168.69
CK Avg -0.80 -0.92 4.62 181.78 -0.80 -0.92 4.29 168.69
Essex Cty -0.80 4.62 181.78 -0.85 4.24 166.72
Mdsx Low -0.80 4.62 181.78 -0.85 4.24 166.72
Mdsx High -0.80 4.62 181.78 -0.80 4.29 168.69
Mdsx Avg -0.80 -0.92 4.62 181.78 -0.82 -0.94 4.27 168.04
Hensall -0.80 4.62 181.78 -0.78 4.31 169.68
Bruce -0.80 4.62 181.78 -0.80 4.29 168.69
Putnam -0.80 4.62 181.78 -0.80 4.29 168.69
Princeton -0.80 4.62 181.78 -0.85 4.24 166.72
Durham -1.15 4.27 168.00 -0.80 4.29 168.69
Norfolk -0.80 4.62 181.78 -0.80 4.29 168.69
Trenton -0.95 4.47 175.88 -0.90 4.19 164.76
Winchester -0.85 4.57 179.81 -0.85 4.24 166.72
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.90 4.52 177.85 -0.70 4.39 172.63
Kent FOB -0.80 4.62 181.78 -0.80 4.29 168.69
Lamb FOB -0.80 4.62 181.78 -0.80 4.29 168.69
Mdsx FOB -0.80 -0.85 -0.80N/A 4.62 181.78 -0.80 4.29 168.69
FOB SW Que -0.50 4.92 193.59 -0.55 4.54 178.54
Track -0.43 4.99 196.55N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.65 4.44 174.60
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.50 4.59 180.50
Aylmer-Eth N/A -0.95 -0.85 -0.85 N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A N/A -0.60 -0.45 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth -0.55N/A N/A N/A 4.87 191.63N/A
London-Cas N/A -0.85 -0.75 -0.75 -0.55 4.54 178.54
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A N/A -0.60 -0.50 -0.50 4.59 180.50
Cardnl-Cas N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.35 4.74 186.41
W O Feed -0.43 -0.45 4.99 196.35
US Rep 0.25 0.23 5.67 223.12
Toledo El. -0.06 5.36 210.86 -0.48 4.60 181.24
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.80 4.62 181.78 -0.85 4.24 166.72
Pt. Stanley -0.86 4.56 179.42 -0.83 4.26 167.51
Hamilton -0.64 4.78 188.08 -0.47 4.62181 2/3
MID SD CRN -0.80 4.61 3/4
HI SD CRN -0.80 4.61 3/4
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0174 down 0.0033
Chicago soybeans closed higher.
JAN11 HI 12.45 1/2 NOV11 HI 11.62
LOW 11.93 3/4 LOW 11.20
CLOSE12.42 Up 37 CLOSE 11.60 Up 33 1/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+MAR11
CK Low -1.32 11.10 407.86-1.12 10.48 385.07
CK High -1.05 11.37 417.78-1.01 10.59 389.12
CK Average -1.13 -1.4011.29 414.69-1.06-1.3410.54 387.43
Essex Cty -1.24 11.18 410.79-1.03 10.57 388.38
Mdsx Low -1.27 11.15 409.69-1.10 10.50 385.81
Mdsx High -1.08 11.34 416.67-1.00 10.60 389.48
Mdsx Average -1.15 -1.4211.27 414.10-1.07-1.3510.53 387.03
Hensall -1.10 11.32 415.94-1.08 10.53 386.73
Bruce -1.10 11.32 415.94-1.05 10.55 387.65
Putnam -1.05 11.37 417.78-1.05 10.55 387.65
Princeton -1.24 11.18 410.79-1.01 10.59 389.12
Durham -1.10 11.32 415.94-1.12 10.48 385.07
Norfolk -0.98 11.44 420.35-1.05 10.55 387.65
Trenton -1.15 11.27 414.10-1.10 10.50 385.81
Winchester -0.99 11.43 419.98-0.85 10.75 394.99
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.95 11.47 421.45-1.00 10.60 389.48
Kent FOB -1.03 11.39 418.51-1.05 10.55 387.65
Lambton FOB -1.03 11.39 418.51-1.05 10.55 387.65
Middlesex FOB-0.71-0.61-0.76-0.76 11.71 430.27-0.98 10.62 390.22
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.57-0.42-0.36-0.36 11.85 435.41-0.58 11.02 404.92
Windsor -0.54-0.54-0.49-0.47 11.88 436.52-0.73 10.87 399.40
Winchester -0.90 11.52 423.29-0.80 10.80 396.83
TRANSFER
Hamilton -0.40-0.30 N/A N/A 12.02 441.66-0.60 11.00 404.18
Pt. Stanley -0.85 11.57 425.12-1.05 10.55 387.65
Sarnia -0.99 11.43 419.98-0.58 11.02 404.92
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC -0.05 12.37 454.52-0.15 11.45 420.72
Toledo El. -0.29 12.13 445.85-0.54 11.06 406.28
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0174 down 0.0033
Chicago wheat closed moderately higher.
DEC10 HI 6.57 1/4 JUL11 HI 7.31
LOW 6.33 1/4 LOW 7.11 1/4
CLOSE 6.45 1/4 Up 12 3/4 CLOSE 7.20 1/2 Up 13
Minni wheat closed moderately higher.
DEC10 HI 7.33 1/2 SEP11 HI 7.66 3/4
LOW 7.14 1/4 LOW 7.46
CLOSE 7.24 Up 13 1/2 CLOSE 7.59 1/2 Up 15 1/2
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.63 -0.37 -0.63 -0.66
CAD $/bu 5.83 6.08 5.83 6.58
CAD $/tonne 214.05 223.43 214.05 241.73
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -0.70 -1.05 N/A N/A -1.00 -1.94 N/A
London -0.80 -0.69 -1.31 N/A -1.11 -1.04 -2.00 N/A
Hensall -0.70 N/A -1.25 N/A -1.15 N/A -1.95 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -1.75 N/A N/A N/A -2.05 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -0.71 N/A N/A N/A -1.03
Essex N/A N/A -1.23 N/A N/A N/A -2.00 N/A
Norwich -0.70 N/A -1.35 N/A -1.15 N/A -1.95 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -0.70 N/A -1.35 N/A -1.15 N/A -1.95 N/A
Chatham N/A -0.65 -1.10 N/A N/A -1.00 -1.95 N/A
Brigden N/A -0.65 -1.10 N/A N/A -1.00 -1.95 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.49 -1.02 -0.39 N/A -0.88 -1.61 -0.73
Mitchell -0.70 -0.60 -1.35 N/A -1.15 -1.00 -1.95 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.98 N/A N/A N/A -1.27
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.98 -0.67 -1.60 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -0.20 N/A N/A N/A -1.55 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -0.70 N/A N/A N/A -2.05 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A 0.75 -0.27 N/A 0.43 -0.13 -0.65 N/A
Toledo El. 6.00US 6.13CA 6.18US 6.32CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.16 -0.80 -1.57 -0.89
CAD $/bu 6.05 6.41 5.64 6.70
CAD $/tonne 222.19 235.36 207.14 246.28
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 250.00 - 260.00
Bayport Oats 305.00
Bayport Barley 235.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 391.33 - 394.63
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 165.00 - 200.00
Wednesday November 17, 2010
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Dec.
5.2575
↓
41
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov.
12.0500
↓
114
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec.
6.3250
↓
77 1/2
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec.
7.1050
↓
71 1/2
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec.
6.9000
↓
97
cents
Canadian $
Dec
0.9764
↓
233
points
CORN
Corn futures collapsed this week with a particularly sharp fall on Tuesday. The
trade is still responding to last week’s USDA report, which despite
downgrading US yield and tightening carryout, was considered anticlimactic by
the market.
With funds holding a record long position, market watchers are expecting
further sell-offs between now and the end of the year. However with little new
information expected, it is difficult to predict the timing and size of this
sell-off.
The market is made more difficult to predict by the ongoing debate regarding US
biofuels and ethanol policies. Following the US mid-term elections the now
“lame duck” US congress will be mindful of the need to cut government
spending in line with voter sentiment. However cutting subsidies to the ethanol
industry would go against the government’s top priority of job creation.
SOYBEANS
Soybean values fell sharply on news that China will impose price controls to
curb rising food prices. This should temper short term speculative demand, but
in the long term China will still require record imports in the coming year.
Despite the severe drop in values, many private analysts are now anticipating
larger US crush and exports which will reduce US ending stocks to below 100
million bushels later this year.
The US dollar traded higher as markets become increasingly concerned about the
level of debt in EU countries.
The longer term need for a substantial acreage expansion next year and tight
supplies this year, should prevent soybeans from falling too far from current
levels. However with nervous funds still holding large long positions, any
negative news could trigger instability.
WHEAT
Wheat values collapsed in sympathy with corn and soybeans during the week. This
despite wheat not having the same problem of nervous funds holding large long
positions.
US wheat exports have been sluggish in recent weeks. A late season surge will
be needed to reach the USDA’s annual export forecast. However the recent price
slump will make North American wheat more competitively priced for the export
market.
The latest US crop report showed national winter wheat at 46% good/excellent,
up 1% from last week but far below the standard of last year’s crop (64%
good/excellent).
With large stocks on hand, wheat is expected to follow corn price action for
some time.
Contract prices for November 17th, 2010 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $209.84 per tonne ($5.71/bu.), SRW at $209.84 per tonne ($5.71/bu.), HRW
at $219.25 per tonne ($5.97/bu.), and HRS at $237.32 per tonne ($6.46/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 1577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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