[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Seamus Hoban Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Nov 11 15:37:09 EST 2010
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, November 11
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0017 up 0.0000
Chicago corn closed slightly lower to lower.
DEC10 HI 5.74 1/4 DEC11 HI 5.55
LOW 5.57 1/2 LOW 5.31 3/4
CLOSE5.64 Down 2 3/4 CLOSE 5.39 1/4 Down 10
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR11+MAR11+MAR11
CK Low -0.90 4.74 186.61 -0.90 4.49 176.86
CK High -0.85 4.79 188.57 -0.85 4.54 178.83
CK Avg -0.89 -0.91 4.75 186.93 -0.86 -0.91 4.53 178.50
Essex Cty -0.90 4.74 186.61 -0.90 4.49 176.86
Mdsx Low -0.90 4.74 186.61 -0.90 4.49 176.86
Mdsx High -0.90 4.74 186.61 -0.85 4.54 178.83
Mdsx Avg -0.90 -0.92 4.74 186.61 -0.87 -0.92 4.53 178.17
Hensall -0.90 4.74 186.61 -0.85 4.54 178.83
Bruce -0.90 4.74 186.61 -0.90 4.49 176.86
Putnam -0.90 4.74 186.61 -0.90 4.49 176.86
Princeton -0.90 4.74 186.61 -0.90 4.49 176.86
Durham -1.20 4.44 174.80 -0.85 4.54 178.83
Norfolk -0.90 4.74 186.61 -0.85 4.54 178.83
Trenton -0.95 4.69 184.64 -0.90 4.49 176.86
Winchester -0.85 4.79 188.57 -0.75 4.64 182.77
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -1.00 4.64 182.67 -0.85 4.54 178.83
Kent FOB -0.90 4.74 186.61 -0.85 4.54 178.83
Lamb FOB -0.90 4.74 186.61 -0.85 4.54 178.83
Mdsx FOB -0.90 -0.90 -0.85N/A 4.74 186.61 -0.85 4.54 178.83
FOB SW Que -0.75 4.89 192.51 -0.65 4.74 186.70
Track -0.53 5.12 201.37N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.65 4.74 186.70
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.50 4.89 192.61
Aylmer-Eth N/A -0.95 -0.85 -0.85 N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A N/A -0.70 -0.55 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth -0.65N/A N/A N/A 4.99 196.45N/A
London-Cas N/A -0.85 -0.75 -0.75 -0.55 4.84 190.64
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A N/A -0.60 -0.50 -0.50 4.89 192.61
Cardnl-Cas N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.35 5.04 198.51
W O Feed -0.61 -0.61 5.03 198.02
US Rep 0.10 0.10 5.74 225.97
Toledo El. -0.23 5.41 212.95 -0.47 4.92 193.61
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.90 4.74 186.61 -0.90 4.49 176.86
Pt. Stanley -0.93 4.71 185.42 -0.88 4.51 177.65
Hamilton -0.88 4.76 187.39 -0.53 4.86191 3/7
MID SD CRN -0.87 1/2 4.76 1/2
HI SD CRN -0.85 4.79
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0017 up 0.0000
Chicago soybeans closed moderately higher.
JAN11 HI 13.42 NOV11 HI 12.59 1/2
LOW 13.17 1/2 LOW 12.29 3/4
CLOSE13.39 Up 19 1/2 CLOSE 12.47 Up 14 3/4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+MAR11
CK Low -1.57 11.82 434.31-1.27 11.20 411.53
CK High -1.55 11.84 435.05-1.22 11.25 413.37
CK Average -1.56 -1.6111.83 434.75-1.25-1.3711.22 412.34
Essex Cty -1.44 11.95 439.09-1.29 11.18 410.79
Mdsx Low -1.61 11.78 432.84-1.26 11.21 411.90
Mdsx High -1.45 11.94 438.72-1.22 11.25 413.37
Mdsx Average -1.54 -1.5911.85 435.54-1.24-1.3611.23 412.51
Hensall -1.53 11.87 435.96-1.23 11.25 413.18
Bruce -1.55 11.84 435.05-1.25 11.22 412.26
Putnam -1.55 11.84 435.05-1.25 11.22 412.26
Princeton -1.52 11.87 436.15-1.30 11.17 410.43
Durham -1.47 11.92 437.99-1.28 11.19 411.16
Norfolk -1.50 11.89 436.88-1.25 11.22 412.26
Trenton -1.50 11.89 436.88-1.20 11.27 414.10
Winchester -1.35 12.04 442.39-1.10 11.37 417.78
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -1.40 11.99 440.56-1.10 11.37 417.78
Kent FOB -1.55 11.84 435.05-1.25 11.22 412.26
Lambton FOB -1.55 11.84 435.05-1.25 11.22 412.26
Middlesex FOB-1.28-1.08-1.03 N/A 12.11 444.97-1.19 11.28 414.47
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.88-0.68-0.60-0.60 12.51 459.66-0.76 11.71 430.27
Windsor -1.10-0.69-0.64 N/A 12.29 451.58-0.87 11.60 426.23
Winchester -1.25 12.14 446.07-1.00 11.47 421.45
TRANSFER
Hamilton -0.95-0.75 N/A N/A 12.44 457.09-0.75 11.72 430.64
Pt. Stanley -1.45 11.94 438.72-1.30 11.17 410.43
Sarnia -1.01 12.38 454.89-0.82 11.65 428.06
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC -0.50 12.89 473.63-0.35 12.12 445.33
Toledo El. -0.33 13.06 479.82-0.54 11.93 438.53
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0017 up 0.0000
Chicago wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC10 HI 7.23 JUL11 HI 8.03 1/2
LOW 7.01 3/4 LOW 7.77 3/4
CLOSE 7.04 Down 6 CLOSE 7.83 1/4 Down 8
Minni wheat closed slightly lower.
DEC10 HI 7.93 SEP11 HI 8.29
LOW 7.75 1/4 LOW 8.11
CLOSE 7.76 3/4 Down 5 1/4 CLOSE 8.15 Down 3 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.72 -0.47 -0.72 -0.77
CAD $/bu 6.32 6.57 6.32 7.00
CAD $/tonne 232.07 241.29 232.07 257.07
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -0.95 -1.65 N/A N/A -1.10 -2.10 N/A
London -0.88 -0.83 -1.58 N/A -1.18 -1.13 -2.07 N/A
Hensall -0.80 N/A -1.50 N/A -1.15 N/A -2.10 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -1.75 N/A N/A N/A -2.00 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -0.90 N/A N/A N/A -1.12
Essex N/A N/A -1.30 N/A N/A N/A -2.16 N/A
Norwich -0.80 N/A -1.50 N/A -1.15 N/A -2.10 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -0.80 N/A -1.50 N/A -1.15 N/A -2.10 N/A
Chatham N/A -0.80 -1.60 N/A N/A -1.10 -2.10 N/A
Brigden N/A -0.80 -1.60 N/A N/A -1.10 -2.10 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.78 -1.38 -0.59 N/A -1.05 -2.01 -0.83
Mitchell -0.80 -0.70 -1.50 N/A -1.15 -1.00 -2.10 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -1.11 N/A N/A N/A -1.30
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.31 -0.78 -1.69 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -0.45 N/A N/A N/A -1.65 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -0.90 N/A N/A N/A -2.10 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A 0.63 -0.37 N/A 0.33 -0.23 -0.73 N/A
Toledo El. 6.49US 6.52CA 6.80US 6.87CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.24 -0.88 -1.64 -0.98
CAD $/bu 6.60 6.95 6.19 7.17
CAD $/tonne 242.33 255.31 227.49 263.38
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 258.00 - 260.00
Bayport Oats 305.00
Bayport Barley 235.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 411.28 - 414.59
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 165.00 - 190.00
Wednesday November 10, 2010
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Dec.
5.6675
↓
14 1/4
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Jan
13.1900
↑
82
cents
Wheat CBOT
Dec.
7.1000
↓
16 3/4
cents
Wheat Minn.
Dec.
7.8200
↑
23 1/2
cents
Wheat Kansas
Dec.
7.8700
↑
27 1/4
cents
Canadian $
Dec
0.9997
↑
65
points
CORN
Corn rallied before retreating following Tuesday’s anticlimactic USDA report.
The report contained a small downgrade in US production (yield falling from
155.8 to 154.3 bpa), however much of the trade had positioned itself for a
larger drop in production.
A record number of corn contracts were traded on Tuesday, as funds re-adjusted
their positions leading into the quite holiday period. Despite the minor
sell-off funds still maintain a record long position in corn.
US ending stocks this year will decline over 900 million bushels from last,
causing some demand rationing. However price modeling suggests corn futures are
fully valued for this time of year.
Between now and the end of the year traders will focus on the US congressional
debate regarding ethanol subsidies. If there are any indications that subsidies
could be cut, nervous traders will likely liquidate their long positions.
However this week the US Deputy Secretary for Agriculture indicated that tight
corn supplies will not shake government support for ethanol.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans enjoyed a strong rally following the USDA report on Tuesday. US soy
yields were estimated at 43.9bpa, below the 44.4 estimate in October and well
below trade expectations.
The report also forecasted a sharp increase in 2011 US cotton acres which will
put further pressure on soybean production next year.
The report forecasted Chinese imports at 57mmt, however many in the trade
believe this figure is conservative. Either way, 2010/11 ending stocks are set
to shrink from already very tight levels. Therefore without a substantial
acreage expansion, North America may face an explosive supply/demand situation
in 2011-12.
Soymeal has caught the attention of the broader market with Chinese demand
increasing at an accelerated rate. Higher animal numbers, higher meat demand and
low meal use per animal sets the stage for exceptionally strong Chinese demand
growth for years to come.
WHEAT
Wheat futures finished the week higher as the USDA made a slight downgrade to
their 2010 US production estimate. The downgrade further tightened US carryout
figures; however supplies remain ample at 848 million bushels. Sensing a
possible over-reaction to the report, on Wednesday wheat futures relinquished
some of Tuesday’s gains. With wheat supplies at adequate levels and corn
preparing for demand rationing, the wheat-corn spread is set to narrow.
After purchasing some Ontario SRW wheat last week, Egypt this week purchased
US, Australian and French wheat.
Ontario winter wheat plantings are estimated between 950,000 – 1 million
acres. This is well up from last year (815,000 acres) but less than early
predictions of above 1.2 million acres.
Extreme wet weather is expected to hamper the wheat harvest in Eastern
Australia.
Contract prices for November 10th, 2010 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $226.18 per tonne ($6.16/bu.), SRW at $226.18 per tonne ($6.16/bu.), HRW
at $231.69 per tonne ($6.31/bu.), and HRS at $252.66 per tonne ($6.88/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 1577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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