[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Seamus Hoban Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Dec 2 16:15:19 EST 2010
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, December 2
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0046 down 0.0114
Chicago corn closed moderately lower to lower.
MAR11 HI 5.68 DEC11 HI 5.33 1/2
LOW 5.55 LOW 5.21 1/2
CLOSE5.55 1/2 Down 10 3/4 CLOSE 5.23 Down 5 3/4
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +MAR11+MAR11+MAY11
CK Low -0.80 4.76 187.20 -0.75 4.48 176.37
CK High -0.75 4.81 189.16 -0.70 4.53 178.34
CK Avg -0.77 -0.80 4.79 188.51 -0.73 -0.77 4.51 177.35
Essex Cty -0.80 4.76 187.20 -0.75 4.48 176.37
Mdsx Low -0.80 4.76 187.20 -0.75 4.48 176.37
Mdsx High -0.75 4.81 189.16 -0.70 4.53 178.34
Mdsx Avg -0.77 -0.80 4.79 188.51 -0.72 -0.76 4.51 177.68
Hensall -0.75 4.81 189.16 -0.65 4.58 180.31
Bruce -0.75 4.81 189.16 -0.70 4.53 178.34
Putnam -0.75 4.81 189.16 -0.70 4.53 178.34
Princeton -0.80 4.76 187.20 -0.75 4.48 176.37
Durham -1.05 4.51 177.35 -0.70 4.53 178.34
Norfolk -0.80 4.76 187.20 -0.75 4.48 176.37
Trenton -0.85 4.71 185.23 -0.80 4.43 174.40
Winchester -0.85 4.71 185.23 -0.70 4.53 178.34
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.70 4.86 191.13 -0.70 4.53 178.34
Kent FOB -0.80 4.76 187.20 -0.75 4.48 176.37
Lamb FOB -0.80 4.76 187.20 -0.75 4.48 176.37
Mdsx FOB -0.75 -0.65 -0.60 -0.65 4.81 189.16 -0.70 4.53 178.34
FOB SW Que -0.50 5.06 199.01 -0.50 4.73 186.21
Track -0.40 5.16 202.94N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.55 4.68 184.24
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.55 4.68 184.24
Aylmer-Eth -0.95 -0.85 -0.85 -0.90 4.61 181.29N/A
Sarn-Eth N/A -0.60 -0.35 -0.35 N/A
Cllngwd-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
London-Cas N/A N/A -0.75 -0.90 -0.55 4.68 184.24
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A N/A -0.70 -0.45 -0.45 4.78 188.18
Cardnl-Cas N/A N/A N/A N/A -0.40 4.83 190.15
W O Feed -0.36 -0.36 5.20 204.52
US Rep 0.25 0.25 5.81 228.53
Toledo El. -0.14 5.41 213.14 -0.47 4.76 187.23
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.80 4.76 187.20 -0.75 4.48 176.37
Pt. Stanley -0.67 4.89 192.31 -0.70 4.53 178.34
Hamilton -0.47 5.09 200.19 -0.44 4.79188 4/7
MID SD CRN -0.77 1/2 4.781
HI SD CRN -0.75 4.80 1/2
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0046 down 0.0114
Chicago soybeans closed slightly lower.
JAN11 HI 12.87 NOV11 HI 12.04
LOW 12.73 3/4 LOW 11.93
CLOSE12.79 3/4 Down 3 1/4 CLOSE 11.97 Down 4
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +JAN1+JAN1+MAR11
CK Low -0.79 12.01 441.20-1.08 10.89 400.14
CK High -0.65 12.15 446.34-0.95 11.02 404.92
CK Average -0.74 -0.8212.06 442.96-1.00-1.1010.97 403.15
Essex Cty -0.68 12.12 445.24-1.05 10.92 401.24
Mdsx Low -0.76 12.04 442.30-1.02 10.95 402.34
Mdsx High -0.73 12.07 443.40-1.00 10.97 403.08
Mdsx Average -0.75 -0.8312.05 442.79-1.01-1.1110.96 402.83
Hensall -0.73 12.07 443.59-0.98 11.00 404.00
Bruce -0.75 12.05 442.67-1.00 10.97 403.08
Putnam -0.75 12.05 442.67-1.00 10.97 403.08
Princeton -0.69 12.11 444.87-1.09 10.88 399.77
Durham -0.78 12.02 441.57-1.04 10.93 401.61
Norfolk -0.70 12.10 444.51-1.00 10.97 403.08
Trenton -0.80 12.00 440.83-1.00 10.97 403.08
Winchester -0.67 12.13 445.61-0.92 11.05 406.02
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.60 12.20 448.18-0.90 11.07 406.75
Kent FOB -0.75 12.05 442.67-1.00 10.97 403.08
Lambton FOB -0.75 12.05 442.67-1.00 10.97 403.08
Middlesex FOB-0.59-0.59-0.59-0.54 12.21 448.55-0.95 11.02 404.92
PROCESSORS
Hamilton -0.24-0.19-0.19-0.10 12.56 461.41-0.40 11.57 425.12
Windsor -0.28-0.38-0.37-0.31 12.52 459.94-0.66 11.31 415.57
Winchester -0.40 12.40 455.53-0.67 11.30 415.20
TRANSFER
Hamilton -0.10 N/A N/A N/A 12.70 466.55-0.45 11.52 423.29
Pt. Stanley -0.55 12.25 450.02-0.90 11.07 406.75
Sarnia -0.33 12.47 458.10-0.58 11.39 418.51
Owen Sound N/A N/A
Sorel QC 0.10 12.90 473.900.00 11.97 439.82
Toledo El. -0.18 12.62 463.57-0.53 11.44 420.18
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0046 down 0.0114
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
MAR11 HI 7.67 1/2 JUL11 HI 7.99 1/2
LOW 7.32 1/2 LOW 7.67 1/2
CLOSE 7.48 1/2 Up 8 1/2 CLOSE 7.75 Up 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly higher.
MAR11 HI 8.32 1/4 SEP11 HI 8.49 1/4
LOW 7.97 3/4 LOW 8.21
CLOSE 8.13 1/4 Up 7 3/4 CLOSE 8.23 Up 1 1/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.91 -0.66 -1.01 -0.85
CAD $/bu 6.58 6.83 6.48 7.28
CAD $/tonne 241.67 250.91 237.97 267.46
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -0.70 -1.15 N/A N/A -0.90 -1.80 N/A
London -0.86 -0.81 -1.11 N/A -1.10 -1.01 -1.96 N/A
Hensall -0.80 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.00 N/A -1.75 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.80 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A -0.93 N/A N/A N/A -1.11
Essex N/A N/A -1.12 N/A N/A N/A -1.94 N/A
Norwich -0.80 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.00 N/A -1.85 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -0.80 N/A -1.05 N/A -1.00 N/A -1.85 N/A
Chatham N/A -0.70 -1.10 N/A N/A -1.00 -1.95 N/A
Brigden N/A -0.70 -1.10 N/A N/A -1.00 -1.95 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.80 -0.97 -0.62 N/A -0.96 -1.77 -0.82
Mitchell -0.80 -0.65 -1.05 N/A -1.00 -0.80 -1.85 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -0.65 N/A N/A N/A -1.44
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia -0.54 -0.23 -0.64 N/A -0.90 -0.60 -1.66 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -0.50 N/A N/A N/A -1.50 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -0.95 N/A N/A N/A -2.00 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A 0.55 -0.46 N/A 0.32 0.07 -0.54 N/A
Toledo El. 7.06US 7.10CA 6.72US 6.78CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.14 -0.79 -1.55 -0.99
CAD $/bu 6.61 6.96 6.20 7.24
CAD $/tonne 242.81 255.78 227.98 266.16
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 250.00 - 260.00
Bayport Oats 305.00
Bayport Barley 245.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 403.12 - 404.22
DDG's FOB Srn, Wndr, Aylm 165.00 - 200.00
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Mar.
5.6625
↑
12 1/2
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Jan.
12.8300
↑
28
cents
Wheat CBOT
Mar.
7.4000
↑
54 3/4
cents
Wheat Minn.
Mar.
8.0550
↑
55 1/4
cents
Wheat Kansas
Mar.
7.4550
↑
10 1/2
cents
Canadian $
Mar.
0.9822
↓
36
points
CORN
An across the board commodity rally saw new funds flow into the market this
week. December is traditionally a good month for corn and this year the month
opened with a very strong rally.
The major cause was threatening rains in Australia which shot wheat prices
higher. However some are expecting much of the Australian wheat crop to be
downgraded to feed which may compete with North American corn in Asian markets.
For the coming months the trade is expecting prices to be ultimately influenced
by the world coarse grain supply/demand situation. Stocks are expected to plunge
to near record tightness next year, with or without ethanol subsidies. World
coarse grain ending stocks will decline a staggering 40 mmt to the tightest
level since 1995. This will leave us vulnerable to the slightest threat of
weather next year.
Gasoline has rallied to a seven month high, prompting suggestions that ethanol
demand will remain strong in the near term regardless of the US Congress
decision on subsidies.
A bipartisan Senate group is lobbying for ethanol subsidies to be allowed to
expire on Dec 31. However pundits see a 50-50 chance of some type of short term
(1-2 years) extension.
SOYBEANS
Soybean values surged higher with first day of the month buying amongst funds
and news of strong economic activity in China.
The trade is also concerned with a hot and dry weather pattern in Argentina. As
a result crop estimates have been lowered with fears of an historical pattern of
drought associated with La Nina years.
The US dollar finished slightly higher against the Canadian this week as the
ongoing concern about the European economy sends funds back towards the
relatively safe greenback.
Surging world biodiesel demand is expected to tighten world vegetable oil
supplies as food and fuel demand outpaces normal annual production gains.
WHEAT
Wheat values exploded as the trade begins to panic with two weeks of rain
forecasted for Australia. The rain is threatening up to 15 mmt of wheat still in
the fields there. Only 7 mmt of wheat has been harvested so far in Australia
which is only sufficient to cover domestic use. The export market is expected to
be largely filled by North American wheat, with Egypt already buying 165,000
tonnes of US HRW wheat and 55,000 tonnes of SRW, with no Australian bids being
received.
The trade is also concerned about dryness in the Middle East where smaller
crops could prompt larger imports. Colder temperature is also seen as a threat
to the Russian crop now while central China remains dry.
Funds currently have a very small long position in Chicago wheat (2,000
contracts), therefore there is lots of room for funds to exercise their buying
power and push prices higher.
Contract prices for December 1st, 2010 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $241.39 per tonne ($6.57/bu.), SRW at $237.65 per tonne ($6.47/bu.), HRW
at $250.75 per tonne ($6.82/bu.), and HRS at $267.77 per tonne ($7.29/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1500 x 1577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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