[Farmmarketnews] Thursday Ontario Commodity Report & Seamus Hoban Grain Commentary
Farm Market News - Ontario Commodity Report
farmmarketnews at lists.sentex.ca
Thu Aug 26 15:55:45 EDT 2010
FARM MARKET NEWS - ONTARIO COMMODITY REPORT FOR Thu, August 26
(All Bases in CAD)
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0546 down 0.0057
Chicago corn closed higher.
SEP10 HI 4.19 3/4 DEC10 HI 4.35
LOW 4.05 LOW 4.20 1/2
CLOSE4.16 1/2 Up 11 3/4 CLOSE 4.32 Up 12
OLD CROP BASIS NEW CROP BASIS
Location Spot 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj $/bu $/mt Cntrct Adj $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +DEC10+DEC10+DEC10
CK Low -0.50 3.67 144.28 -0.55 3.77 148.42
CK High -0.45 3.72 146.25 -0.55 3.77 148.42
CK Avg -0.49 -0.73 3.67 144.61 -0.55 -0.81 3.77 148.42
Essex Cty -0.50 3.67 144.28 -0.55 3.77 148.42
Mdsx Low -0.50 3.67 144.28 -0.55 3.77 148.42
Mdsx High -0.50 3.67 144.28 -0.55 3.77 148.42
Mdsx Avg -0.50 -0.74 3.67 144.28 -0.55 -0.81 3.77 148.42
Hensall -0.48 3.69 145.07 -0.53 3.79 149.21
Bruce -0.50 3.67 144.28 -0.55 3.77 148.42
Putnam -0.50 3.67 144.28 -0.55 3.77 148.42
Princeton -0.50 3.67 144.28 -0.55 3.77 148.42
Durham -0.50 3.67 144.28 -0.55 3.77 148.42
Norfolk -0.45 3.72 146.25 -0.55 3.77 148.42
Trenton -0.40 3.77 148.22 -0.55 3.77 148.42
Winchester -0.20 3.97 156.10 -0.45 3.87 152.36
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB -0.45 3.72 146.25 -0.45 3.87 152.36
Kent FOB -0.45 3.72 146.25 -0.55 3.77 148.42
Lamb FOB -0.45 3.72 146.25 -0.55 3.77 148.42
Mdsx FOB -0.55 N/A N/A N/A 3.62 142.32 -0.60 3.72 146.45
FOB SW Que -0.25 3.92 154.13 -0.25 4.07 160.23
Track -0.08 4.09 161.02 N/A
PROCESSORS
Chat-Eth N/A N/A -0.45 -0.40 -0.45 3.87 152.36
Jhnstwn-Eth N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aylmer-Eth -0.45 -0.45 -0.45 -0.45 3.72 146.25 -0.45 3.87 152.36
Sarn-Eth N/A -0.35 -0.35 -0.35 -0.35 3.97 156.29
Cllngwd-Eth -0.10 N/A N/A N/A 4.07 160.03 N/A
London-Cas N/A -0.35 -0.20 -0.40 -0.20 4.12 162.20
Pt.Colb-Cas N/A -0.25 -0.30 -0.20 -0.30 4.02 158.26
Cardnl-Cas N/A N/A N/A -0.35 -0.35 3.97 156.29
W O Feed 0.03 -0.03 4.20 165.15
US Rep 0.10 0.04 4.27 167.91
Toledo El. -0.22 3.94 155.23 -0.51 3.81 150.03
TRANSFER
Sarnia -0.50 3.67 144.28 -0.55 3.77 148.42
Pt. Stanley N/A -0.59 3.73 146.84
Hamilton -0.17 4.00 157.28 -0.32 4.00157 1/2
MID SD CRN -0.55 3.77
HI SD CRN -0.55 3.77
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0546 down 0.0057
Chicago soybeans closed moderately higher.
NOV10 HI 10.16 NOV10 HI 10.16
LOW 10.00 1/4 LOW 10.00 1/4
CLOSE10.14 1/2 Up 15 1/2 CLOSE 10.14 1/2 Up 15 1/2
OLD CROP NEW CROP
Location Basis 1mt 2mt 3mt Adj. $/bu $/mt BasisAdj. $/bu $/mt
ELEVATORS +NOV1+NOV1+NOV10
CK Low 0.02 10.17 373.50-0.30 9.85 361.74
CK High 0.20 10.35 380.11-0.23 9.92 364.31
CK Average 0.13 -0.4510.28 377.69-0.27-0.89 9.87 362.77
Essex Cty 0.12 10.27 377.17-0.34 9.81 360.27
Mdsx Low 0.07 10.22 375.34-0.30 9.85 361.74
Mdsx High 0.20 10.35 380.11-0.16 9.99 366.89
Mdsx Average 0.12 -0.4710.26 377.05-0.24-0.86 9.90 363.82
Hensall 0.18 10.32 379.20-0.28 9.87 362.66
Bruce 0.20 10.35 380.11-0.30 9.85 361.74
Putnam 0.20 10.35 380.11-0.30 9.85 361.74
Princeton 0.12 10.27 377.17-0.41 9.74 357.70
Durham 0.05 10.20 374.60-0.18 9.97 366.15
Norfolk 0.19 10.34 379.75-0.28 9.87 362.48
Trenton -0.10 10.05 369.09-0.35 9.80 359.90
Winchester -0.20 9.95 365.420.00 10.15 372.76
North Gower N/A N/A
Huron FOB 0.30 10.45 383.79-0.15 10.00 367.25
Kent FOB 0.14 10.29 377.91-0.33 9.82 360.64
Lambton FOB 0.14 10.29 377.91-0.33 9.82 360.64
Middlesex FOB0.21 N/A N/A N/A 10.36 380.480.00 10.15 372.76
PROCESSORS
Hamilton 0.50 N/A N/A N/A 10.65 391.140.22 10.37 380.85
Windsor 0.65 N/A N/A N/A 10.80 396.650.13 10.28 377.54
Winchester -0.10 10.05 369.090.10 10.25 376.44
TRANSFER
Hamilton N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.35 10.50 385.63
Pt. Stanley N/A -0.10 10.05 369.09
Sarnia 0.17 10.32 379.010.18 10.33 379.38
Owen Sound -0.11 10.04 368.72-0.48 9.67 355.13
Sorel QC 0.75 10.90 400.320.75 10.90 400.32
Toledo El. 0.07 10.22 375.48-0.27 9.88 363.02
Bank of Canada Noon exchange rate was 1.0546 down 0.0057
Chicago wheat closed slightly higher.
SEP10 HI 6.65 1/4 JUL11 HI 7.03 3/4
LOW 6.49 3/4 LOW 6.88
CLOSE 6.56 1/2 Up 8 3/4 CLOSE 6.97 1/4 Up 9 3/4
Minni wheat closed slightly to moderately higher.
DEC10 HI 7.12 1/4 SEP11 HI 7.03 1/4
LOW 6.93 LOW 6.95
CLOSE 7.04 1/4 Up 9 CLOSE 6.96 3/4 Up 10 3/4
GFO Cash Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Current Crop 10 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -0.73 -0.63 -1.53 -1.02
CAD $/bu 5.83 5.94 5.04 6.02
CAD $/tonne 214.28 218.16 185.14 221.17
Direct MarkHarvest 2010 Harvest 2011
DELIVERED BASIS DELIVERED BASIS
Location SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M) SWW(C) HRW(C) SRW(C) HRS(M)
ELEVATORS
Brgssvll N/A -0.85 -1.70 N/A N/A -0.90 -2.00 N/A
London -0.60 -0.93 -1.72 N/A -1.49 -1.17 -2.07 N/A
Hensall -1.05 N/A -1.70 N/A -1.25 N/A -2.05 N/A
Trenton N/A N/A -1.40 N/A N/A N/A -1.80 N/A
Winchester N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Essex N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A -2.10 N/A
Norwich -1.05 N/A -1.70 N/A -1.25 N/A -2.05 N/A
Mt. Elgin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kent Bridge -1.05 N/A -1.75 N/A -1.25 N/A -2.05 N/A
Chatham -1.11 -0.91 -1.76 N/A N/A -1.06 -2.01 N/A
Brigden -1.11 -0.91 -1.76 N/A N/A -1.06 -2.01 N/A
Palmerston N/A -0.99 -1.78 -0.67 N/A -0.96 -1.97 -0.78
Mitchell -1.05 -0.90 -1.70 N/A -1.25 -1.20 -2.05 N/A
Thornton N/A N/A N/A -1.09 N/A N/A N/A N/A
North Gower N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TERMINAL
Sarnia N/A N/A N/A N/A -1.18 -0.81 -1.69 N/A
Hamilton N/A N/A -1.20 N/A N/A N/A -1.30 N/A
Pt. Stanley N/A N/A -1.70 N/A N/A N/A -1.80 N/A
PROCESSORS
Toledo FM N/A N/A -0.42 N/A 0.95 N/A -0.64 N/A
Toledo El. 5.69US 6.01CA 5.84US 6.20CA
GFO Contract Wheat Prices - DEL Terminal
Harvest 11 Soft White(C) Hard Red(C) Soft Red(C) Red Spring(M)
Basis -1.06 -0.85 -1.65 -1.17
CAD $/bu 5.91 6.12 5.33 5.80
CAD $/tonne 217.13 224.92 195.70 213.04
(C)-Basis over the Chicago Board of Trade futures
(M)-Basis over the Minneapolis Grain Exchange
FEED GRAINS
Bayport Wheat 245.00 - 250.00
Bayport Oats 265.00
Bayport Barley 215.00
FOB Hm Soymeal 383.94 - 387.25
DDG's FOB Sarnia 130.00
Wednesday August 25, 2010
Commodity
Period
Price
Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT
Sep.
4.2125
↑
2 1/2
cents
Soybeans CBOT
Nov.
10.0400
↓
26 3/4
cents
Wheat CBOT
Sep.
6.7900
↑
23
cents
Wheat Minn.
Sep.
7.1425
↑
17 1/2
cents
Wheat Kansas
Sep.
7.0070
↑
15 3/4
cents
Canadian $
Sep.
0.9427
↓
284
points
CORN
Corn finished slightly higher for the week as wheat regained some lost ground.
Investment funds maintain a 327,000 long position in Chicago corn futures,
which is relatively large. However the trade is anticipating a potential
sell-down by investment funds as the seasonal harvest weakness approaches.
Despite the anticipation of a bumper US crop, the early harvest results in
Illinois have been disappointing with yields well below last year’s crop.
The export trade situation following the Russian drought continues to be
debated, with many different projections being put forward. The USDA expect
combined coarse grain production from the EU and Former Soviet Union to be down
24 MMT from last year while feed use is expected to fall by only 3MMT. With
wheat following a very similar pattern, there should be significant demand for
North American corn exports.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures fell sharply last week as soybean oil values over-extended
their rally and went into freefall as funds rushed to sell. Soyoil also suffered
as nervousness about the health of the global economic recovery pushed crude oil
lower.
Values recovered some ground early this week as production issues emerged in
the US crop and forecasts remained dry for most states. The national US crop
condition reports dropped 2% to 64% good/excellent.
Argentina is expected to cut soybean export taxes from 35% to 30% for this
coming year and then systematically reduce rates to 15% in 2015. The
controversial taxes were introduced in 2008 as a means of discouraging exports
and controlling local food prices. Export taxes for corn and wheat may be
reduced at a faster rate in an effort to encourage producers to diversify away
from soybean production.
Investment funds long 122,000 contracts of soybean futures, 65,000 of soymeal
and 36,000 of soyoil.
WHEAT
Chicago wheat traded as high as $7 late last week before falling sharply early
this week.
The trade was surprised by the price paid by Egypt for a large purchase of
Canadian and French wheat. The trade expected the wheat to draw a much higher
price.
The Ukraine crop estimate (17.4 MMT) was slightly above the USDA’s August
estimate (17 MMT), prompting the government to delay any decision to impose
export quotas. Meanwhile wet weather in Germany and the Baltic states have
improved production prospects in these areas.
Investment funds hold a 43,000 contract long position which may be reduced in
the coming weeks as the world supply situation becomes clearer and the market
settles down.
GFO released final payments for the 2009/10 Pool Program last week. Total
payments were as follows;
/tonne /bushel
· Pool A (SWW) $206.98 $5.606
· Pool B (HRW) $185.22 $5.041
· Pool C (HRS) $211.38 $5.753
· Pool E (SRW) $161.19 $4.387
· Pool G (Feed) $150.40 $4.093
Contract prices for August 25th, 2010 at the close are as follows:
SWWat $221.31 per tonne ($6.02/bu.), SRW at $188.54 per tonne ($5.13/bu.), HRW
at $221.31 per tonne ($6.02/bu.), and HRS at $215.62 per tonne ($5.87/bu.).
Chart of the Week
John Jordan
Editor, AgriLink and Farm Market News
University of Guelph, Ridgetown Campus
Tel. 519-674-1577
Fax. 519-674-1530
E-mail: jjordan at ridgetownc.uoguelph.ca
AgriLink website : www.ridgetownc.com/agrilink
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